Four intriguing teams. Two huge games.
However, those two matchups are drawing very different types of action in the College Football Playoff semifinal odds market.
“It looks like we’re gonna get more two-way action on Miami–Ole Miss, and Oregon–Indiana might be the polar opposite, with one-way traffic,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.
Bookmakers and sharp bettors offer their insights on CFP semifinal odds for the Thursday and Friday showdowns.
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Football Fiesta
In the CFP quarterfinals, No. 6 Ole Miss provided all the flair that attracts the public betting masses — mainly, an athletic and riveting-to-watch quarterback and a lot of points.
The Rebels, 6-point Sugar Bowl underdogs to SEC rival and No. 3 Georgia, rallied from a 21-12 halftime deficit to post a 39-34 victory. Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss’ heroics paved the way to an upset.
No. 10 Miami has gotten bettors’ attention via its stout defense, a key to posting back-to-back CFP upsets.
In the quarterfinals, the Hurricanes were 7.5-point Cotton Bowl ‘dogs vs. No. 2 Ohio State. The ‘Canes shut out the Buckeyes in the first half, taking a 14-0 lead, then fended off a second-half comeback to win 24-14.
So both Miami, at 12-2 straight up (SU) and 9-5 against the spread (ATS), and Ole Miss (13-1 SU/7-7 ATS) are drawing dollars for Thursday’s 7:30 p.m. Fiesta Bowl semifinal.
Caesars Sports opened Miami as a 3-point favorite, and the line went to Miami -3.5 Friday, where it remained Wednesday afternoon.
“Both of these teams had outstanding quarterfinal performances. These are two teams that fought through adversity, and that’s caught bettors’ eyes,” Feazel said. “Bettors are either laying the points with Miami or taking Ole Miss on the moneyline.
“The game is driving two-way action, with just a little bit more on Ole Miss as an underdog on the moneyline.”
Translation: Rebels backers are pulling for the modest upset and a trip to the championship game.
If that action persists, Caesars will be rooting for what oddsmakers term the Super Bowl middle: a Miami win and an Ole Miss cover.
Built for the Futures
While a Miami win by a point or two is currently an ideal outcome in CFP semifinal odds, there’s more to this matchup than just the game itself. At this stage of the season, College Football Playoff futures odds come more into play, as well.
When factoring in Caesars’ championship position on the final four teams, Feazel wouldn’t mind Ole Miss continuing its run in the wake of coach Lane Kiffin’s exit to LSU five weeks ago.
“With Ole Miss losing Lane Kiffin, they were kind of an afterthought,” Feazel said. “We only have one bad case for futures. Miami is the only liability. An ideal championship matchup would be Ole Miss vs. Oregon.”
Indiana Just Peachy
On the flip side, Friday’s 7:30 p.m. ET Peach Bowl kickoff is seeing lopsided action in College Football Playoff semifinal odds.
No. 1 Indiana (14-0 SU/9-5 ATS) absolutely trucked No. 9 Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal, easily covering as a 7.5-point favorite.
In the Orange Bowl, No. 5 Oregon was stout on defense and hit-and-miss on offense. But the Ducks dispatched No. 4 Texas Tech 23-0 as 1.5-point underdogs.
Caesars opened Indiana as a 4-point favorite vs. Oregon, and the line dipped to Indiana -3.5 on Monday. As of Wednesday afternoon, though, bettors were far more enamored with Heisman-winning QB Fernando Mendoza and the Hoosiers.
“Curt Cignetti and Indiana are pushing to be a new blue blood in college football,” Feazel said. “Indiana is very efficient, very well run and that has gotten bettors’ attention.
“There’s a significant amount of Indiana action on the spread and the moneyline.”
Helping the Hoosiers’ cause with the public betting masses: Indiana went to Oregon in Week 7 as a 7-point underdog and won 30-20.
“It’s hard to beat the same team twice, but if anybody can, it’ll be Cignetti’s team,” Feazel said. “There’s a little bit of sharper action on Oregon +4. But we’re not gonna see a slow in traffic on Indiana.
“We’ll need the Ducks on Friday night.”
CFP Sharp Side
College football betting expert Paul Stone is taking a position on the first matchup on the CFP semifinal oddsboard.
Many felt Lane Kiffin’s drama-filled exit from Ole Miss to LSU would be a distraction for the Rebels. Stone doesn’t see it that way and, in fact, sees it as a continuing motivator for Ole Miss.
So Stone is on the Rebels +3.5 vs. the Hurricanes.
“I believe Kiffin’s untimely exit has galvanized the Rebels and drawn them closer together,” Stone said. “Trinidad Chambliss is playing at an extremely high level and possesses the elusiveness to neutralize Miami’s pass rush.
“I look for Chambliss to do damage with his arm and his legs against the Hurricanes.”
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
There are countless championship futures bets on all four remaining teams in the CFP odds market. But a couple of interesting ones stand out as the semifinals approach.
Neither bet would be considered a major wager, yet both could pay out big.
Almost a year ago, on Jan. 20, 2024, a DraftKings Sportsbook customer put $2,000 on Indiana +15000 (150/1) to win the national championship.
At that time, the Hoosiers were coming off a surprising 11-1 regular season, before losing to Notre Dame in the first round of the College Football Playoff. But oddsmakers didn’t think there was any chance of Cignetti and Indiana earning a second straight CFP berth, let alone making a legit title run.
Yet here the Hoosiers are. If Indiana finishes this off with a big trophy on Jan. 19 in Miami, then the bettor banks a massive windfall of $300,000.
Semi-similarly, on Dec. 5 — two days before the CFP committee revealed the 12-team field — Miami was not expected to be among the chosen. That was reflected in DraftKings’ national championship odds, with the Hurricanes long shots of +10000 (100/1).
Still, one customer took a $560 flier on Miami. If the ‘Canes ride that defense to two more victories, then the bettor pockets $56,000 in profit.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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