Complete US new mild car gross sales for February 2026, together with retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to achieve 1,183,000, a 3.8% lower year-over-year, based on a joint forecast from JD Energy and GlobalData.
February 2026 has 24 promoting days, the identical as February 2025.
The seasonally adjusted annualised fee (SAAR) for complete new car gross sales is predicted to be 15.6 million items, down 0.6 million items from February 2025. That compares with a SAAR of 14.8 million items in January (which was additional depressed by extreme winter climate).
New car retail gross sales for February 2026 are projected to achieve 931,400, a 4.6% lower from February 2025.
Thomas King, president of OEM options at JD Energy mentioned that as in January, efficiency is being formed by depressed electrical car (EV) retail demand—EVs are anticipated to account for simply 6.6% of retail gross sales, down 1.8 share factors from a 12 months in the past. “Elevated transaction costs proceed to weigh on volumes via ongoing affordability strain,” he mentioned.
Nonetheless, he additionally mentioned that regardless of the comparatively sluggish begin to the 12 months, acceleration within the gross sales tempo is predicted over the stability of 2026, beginning with March, which is historically a high-volume gross sales month. “There shall be elevated promotional exercise from producers,” he predicts.
King added: “Affordability strain stays vital, with the common month-to-month finance fee reaching $811, up $32 from a 12 months in the past. In response, extra customers are turning to 84-month mortgage phrases, that are anticipated to account for 12.7% of financed gross sales this month in comparison with 7.7% a 12 months in the past.
“Easing rates of interest and powerful used-vehicle values are offering some reduction to consumers dealing with elevated month-to-month funds. The common rate of interest for new-vehicle loans in February is 6.72%, a lower of 31 foundation factors from a 12 months in the past.”
“Trying forward, a number of automakers have publicly acknowledged their intent to extend their gross sales quantity in 2026. Nonetheless, given complete new car gross sales this 12 months are anticipated to be just like a 12 months in the past, and few, if any automakers are planning for a gross sales contraction, aggressive depth may be anticipated to rise within the coming months.”
GlobalData forecasts US mild car gross sales at 16.2 million items in 2026 – barely down on 2025’s degree (16.3 million). Optimistic elements for the market embrace low rates of interest, larger numbers of lease returns, and tax reductions. Nonetheless, GlobalData analysts be aware that affordability will proceed to be a constraint on the business as OEMs grapple with the implications of tariff-related prices.
