WASHINGTON — Democrats’ hopes of securing management of the Senate subsequent yr start with defending a freshman from a Southern swing state that Donald Trump narrowly carried in 2024.
And Republican efforts to keep up their Senate majority middle on a longtime incumbent who has managed to hold on regardless of representing a state that leans blue.
A yr out from Election Day, Georgia’s Jon Ossoff, a Democrat in search of his second time period, and Maine’s Susan Collins, a Republican in search of her sixth, high our record of probably the most susceptible senators of 2026.
A number of different incumbents — together with Republicans John Cornyn of Texas and Invoice Cassidy of Louisiana and Democrat Edward J. Markey of Massachusetts — additionally make our record. However their greatest problem is prone to come within the major from a member of their very own occasion.
The rating is predicated on in depth conversations with marketing campaign insiders, occasion officers and impartial election analysts, in addition to candidates’ fundraising and race scores by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales.
CQ Roll Name sometimes focuses on the ten most endangered members in every chamber, however our newest Senate record options solely six.
As a result of our record focuses on incumbents, it doesn’t bear in mind open-seat races, whose outcomes may even decide the steadiness of energy within the Senate. Three Democratic incumbents from aggressive states — Michigan’s Gary Peters, New Hampshire’s Jeanne Shaheen and Minnesota’s Tina Smith — in addition to Republicans Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Joni Ernst of Iowa all introduced their retirements, forsaking aggressive seats.
Democrats want a internet pickup of 4 seats to win management of the chamber subsequent yr. Talking earlier than Tuesday’s off-year elections, Democratic Nationwide Committee Chair Ken Martin admitted that will be a “fairly steep” hill to climb.
However sweeping Democratic wins throughout the nation Tuesday injected some optimism into the minority occasion, with Senate Minority Chief Charles E. Schumer and Democratic Senatorial Marketing campaign Committee Chair Kirsten Gillibrand, each of New York, saying the outcomes “clarify that Republicans’ Senate majority is in danger.”
Democrats harbor long-shot hopes of increasing their path to the Senate majority by way of red-state races that would turn into aggressive below the precise situations. In Alaska, for example, Democrats are already criticizing two-term Sen. Dan Sullivan for his votes in favor of laws that included cuts to Medicaid. Former Rep. Mary Peltola, the final Democrat elected statewide, could be a robust opponent, however she has not but introduced her 2026 plans.
And Nebraska’s Pete Ricketts is preventing off a problem from impartial Dan Osborn. In 2024, Osborn, a former labor chief, got here inside 7 factors of defeating the state’s senior senator, Republican Deb Fischer. However Ricketts, a well-liked former governor, is seen as a stronger contender towards Osborn.
1. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga.
Race score: Toss-up
As the one Senate Democrat on this record from a state that Trump received in 2024, Ossoff has needed to navigate the political complexities of a purple state. However that is his first check since his victory over former Sen. David Perdue in a runoff election in early 2021 helped hand Democrats management of the Senate. This yr, Ossoff faces a fractured Republican area: Two congressmen, Mike Collins and Earl L. “Buddy” Carter, are operating, together with former College of Tennessee soccer coach Derek Dooley, a political newcomer who has the backing of Gov. Brian Kemp. Regardless of the GOP divisions, Republicans are assured the occasion will coalesce behind the winner of the Might major. Ossoff, in the meantime, has a giant fundraising benefit over his potential rivals. He raised $12.1 million between July and September and ended the third quarter with $21.4 million within the financial institution. Democrats have been additionally inspired by Tuesday’s election outcomes, which noticed a pair of Democrats flip two seats on the state’s Public Service Fee.
2. Susan Collins, R-Maine
Race score: Tilt Republican
Maine is unsurprisingly shaping as much as host one other marquee Senate race subsequent yr. Collins, the lone Republican senator representing a state received by Kamala Harris final yr, has but to formally announce her marketing campaign for a sixth time period. However the Democratic major to take her on has heated up, with Gov. Janet Mills and oyster farmer Graham Platner locked in a battle that highlights the generational and ideological variations inside the occasion. Platner, who raised $3.2 million within the first six weeks of his marketing campaign, has been dogged by latest unfavourable headlines over unsavory previous social media posts and a problematic tattoo. However a College of New Hampshire survey from final month confirmed him with a double-digit lead over Mills. Additionally operating is former congressional aide Jordan Wooden, who’s raised $3.1 million since becoming a member of the race in April. To hold on as New England’s solely Republican within the Senate, Collins should overcome low favorability scores (which she’s completed earlier than) and fend off Democratic assaults over well being care prices and the autumn of Roe v. Wade, which occurred after her final reelection. She ended September with $6.7 million banked.
3. John Cornyn, R-Texas
Race score: Doubtless Republican
For months, Cornyn has been preventing for his political future towards firebrand major challenger Ken Paxton, the state legal professional normal. Now, the senator faces a battle on a brand new entrance, with GOP Rep. Wesley Hunt becoming a member of the sector. Cornyn has Senate GOP leaders behind him, and a pro-Cornyn tremendous PAC is already operating adverts supporting his marketing campaign. That spending has boosted Cornyn’s ballot numbers: An October survey by the College of Houston and Texas Southern College discovered him and Paxton successfully tied, with Hunt in third place. Cornyn reported elevating $910,000 final quarter by way of his essential reelection committee and about $2.4 million by way of his joint fundraising accounts. Paxton raised $1.3 million in that very same span, whereas Hunt netted $366,000 for his Home account. On the Democratic facet, state Rep. James Talarico has proved to be a fundraising juggernaut, bringing in $6.2 million in his first three weeks. Former Rep. Colin Allred, who misplaced to Sen. Ted Cruz by 8 factors final yr, raised about $4.1 million for his second Senate bid.
4. Invoice Cassidy, R-La.
Race score: Strong Republican
In conservative Louisiana, Cassidy would solely be susceptible within the major. He began October with $9.5 million within the financial institution, giving him an enormous cash edge over his GOP opponents: state Treasurer John Fleming, state Rep. Julie Emerson, state Sen. Blake Miguez, Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta and St. Tammany Parish Councilwoman Kathy Seiden. However he’s on our record as a result of he’s one among simply three Republican senators nonetheless in workplace who voted to convict Trump at his post-Jan. 6 impeachment trial. Cassidy’s rivals have already attacked him over his vote, as they angle for Trump’s endorsement. However Cassidy supporters say he has labored to rebuild his relationship with the president. The senator has been invited to the White Home greater than a dozen occasions this yr and has nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize. In September, Trump despatched Cassidy a birthday be aware thanking him for his “continued friendship and enduring dedication to our cherished American values.”
5. Jon Husted, R-Ohio
Race score: Lean Republican
Husted was Ohio’s lieutenant governor when Gov. Mike DeWine appointed him earlier this yr to fill the seat left open after Republican JD Vance turned vp. A detailed ally of DeWine’s, Husted enjoys a transparent path to the GOP nomination, not like in latest cycles, when Vance and Bernie Moreno, now Ohio’s senior senator, every confronted contentious primaries. However the particular election to fill the remaining two years of Vance’s time period has drawn a well-known Democrat: former Sen. Sherrod Brown, who misplaced his seat to Moreno in 2024. In red-leaning Ohio, Brown, the gravel-voiced populist with historic ties to the labor motion, is probably going the one one who might make the race aggressive, however even his supporters concede it would require some huge cash, and a little bit of luck. Democrats say the impacts of Trump’s tariff coverage will weigh closely on the minds of voters, nevertheless it received’t be simple overcoming Ohio’s reliably Republican underpinnings. Brown, lengthy a talented fundraiser, reported whole receipts of $7 million within the first six weeks since launching his bid. Husted had about $5 million within the financial institution on the finish of September.
6. Edward J. Markey, D-Mass.
Race score: Strong Democratic
Markey, who’s 79 and the longest-serving Democrat in Congress, is going through an intraparty problem from Rep. Seth Moulton, 47, who has framed the race as a generational battle for the way forward for the Democratic Occasion. Markey has been right here earlier than: In 2020, he handily beat again a problem from one other Democratic Home member, Joseph P. Kennedy III. Markey has additionally constructed sturdy ties with youthful progressives, together with New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. A brand new College of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB ballot discovered Markey main Moulton by 20 factors. The sphere might develop: Politico reported Tuesday that Rep. Ayanna S. Pressley is weighing a Senate run. Whoever emerges from the Democratic major could be closely favored within the normal election. The Bay State hasn’t elected a Republican to the Senate since 2010, when Scott P. Brown notched a shock particular election win to succeed the late Democratic Sen. Edward M. Kennedy. Brown is operating for Senate in New Hampshire this cycle.
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