With the vacations behind us, the recent range is burning vivid once more. The place are you able to flip for steerage amid this dizzying whirlwind?
Proper right here is the place. Chris Towers and I might be making the Offseason Tracker our house base for the subsequent few weeks, churning out content material because the information warrants. Right here, you may get a breakdown of all of the strikes that matter for Fantasy Baseball with out all of the fluff. (OK, possibly a bit fluff.)
Bookmark it. Learn it. Dwell by it.
Tatsuya Imai indicators with Astros
2025 NPB Stats: 10-5, 1.92 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 163.2 INN, 45 BB, 178 Okay
Of the a number of gamers anticipated to signal out of East Asia this offseason, Imai was considered the perfect. He is within the prime of his profession at age 27, was the hardest-throwing beginning pitcher in Japan this previous season (in line with Baseball America) and, nicely, you possibly can see the numbers for your self. However numbers might be deceptive, significantly for pitchers throughout what’s been a useless ball period for the Japanese league. What does it say that Imai’s final deal — three years for a most of $63 million — is such a far cry from the six-year, $150 million supply that a number of retailers have been projecting?
Could possibly be that Imai is betting on a much bigger rating as soon as he proves himself. His deal consists of opt-outs after each the primary and second yr. Could possibly be, nonetheless, that his oddball profile makes for a troublesome analysis. Sure, he throws exhausting, along with his fastball sitting at about 96 mph and peaking at 99, however what’s extra notable is his launch top. It might rank among the many lowest within the sport, owing each to his close to sidearm supply and smallish 5-foot-11 construct. In the meantime, his slider, which is meant to be his greatest pitch, breaks to his arm aspect, transferring in the other way of most each different slider, which Lance Brozdowski has identified would make it much less interesting to stuff fashions.
However would it not make it more practical genuinely? I am of the opinion that bizarre is sweet for pitchers. The purpose is to misdirect hitters, in spite of everything, and familiarity works towards that purpose. If Imai’s success relied on deception alone, I would have higher doubts, however he has high quality stuff and at the very least fairly good command. The contract is a bit underwhelming, however I am nonetheless more likely to rank him amongst my prime 45 beginning pitchers for 2026. –Scott White
Pete Fairbanks indicators with Marlins
A day after asserting they’d be with out Ronny Henriquez for the 2026 season, the Marlins agreed to a one-year, $13 million cope with Fairbanks. It is a modest contract for a pitcher with ample closing expertise, which speaks to issues in regards to the 32-year-old’s declining efficiency the previous two years. He is continued to deal with the ninth inning capably, however he is gone from putting out about 12 batters per 9 innings to lower than 9 per 9, with a corresponding drop in velocity. The Rays, who after all know him greatest, really turned down an $11 million possibility for him. Nonetheless, he’ll enter 2026 as the favourite to shut for the Marlins, who have been by no means settled in that function final yr. Possibly that is supervisor Clayton McCullough’s philosophy, which is all of the extra purpose to be cautious about drafting Fairbanks subsequent yr, besides, he is price focusing on as a low-end RP2. –Scott White
Willson Contreras traded to the Crimson Sox
Effectively, this one’s sort of stunning. The Crimson Sox most likely could not go into this season counting on Triston Casas once more, and now it isn’t clear if Casas will even be on the Crimson Sox in 2026. Contreras transitioned to first base in 2025 and continued to be a stable middle-of-the-order bat, hitting 20 homers with a .257/.344/.447 line. Given the cash due over the ultimate two seasons of his contract (which incorporates an possibility for 2028), the Crimson Sox aren’t more likely to take into account Contreras a platoon bat with Casas, so I might anticipate a commerce for Casas, who may have some very late-round attraction in Fantasy if he finds an on a regular basis job. As for Contreras, his worth takes a giant hit as he’s solely 1B eligible for 2026, however he is a stable sufficient nook infield possibility in Fantasy, particularly with a pleasant little park improve on the best way.
As for the Cardinals aspect of this, I’m wondering if this is perhaps a strategy to unlock on a regular basis at bats for Ivan Herrera, who has hit like a primary baseman over the previous couple of seasons whereas enjoying catcher … like a primary baseman. He’s recovering from elbow surgical procedure and is predicted to play catcher in 2026 after largely being restricted to DH duties final season, however possibly they might give him a couple of alternatives behind the plate per week whereas primarily holding down first base and DH. Herrera will not open 2026 with catcher eligibility, however he has vital upside if he will get there and performs repeatedly coming off a .284/.373/.464 line (with even higher underlying numbers).
The Cardinals additionally added to their rotation choices with Hunter Dobbins coming again their manner, together with as-yet-unnamed pitching prospects. Dobbins had a 4.13 ERA and three.99 xERA final season with the Crimson Sox, and there is perhaps room to unlock some swing-and-miss upside with some tweaks to his arsenal. However he is most likely simply an end-of-rotation possibility for the Cardinals and somebody Fantasy gamers can view as strictly a streamer for 2026.
Munetaka Murakami indicators with the White Sox
It is a surprisingly small contract for one of many greatest names in the marketplace. I wrote about that and extra right here:
“MLB groups aren’t infallible, and in relation to a participant making the transition from NPB to the majors, there’s an inherent uncertainty that makes it more durable to say with confidence whether or not this can find yourself being a very good deal or not. However there aren’t any scarcity of groups with the necessity for a possible 30-plus energy hitter in the midst of the lineup, and the truth that Murakami ended up with an analogous contract to those Jurickson Profar and Tyler O’Neill signed final season (whereas being considerably older and with fairly mediocre MLB monitor data) stands out as a reasonably large crimson flag, one Fantasy participant should not simply ignore.
I am not going to completely bury him in my rankings however on condition that the White Sox (and the opposite 29 groups, frankly) know an entire lot extra about Murakami than we do, I’m very a lot inclined to view him with a skeptical eye. We’ll get to the scouting report for Murakami shortly, however the lengthy and in need of it’s there are vital contact questions along with his swing that make his probability of dwelling as much as the loftiest expectations fairly unlikely. I used to be keen to offer him the good thing about the doubt as a prospect if he signed for large cash, however with the main points in now, it looks like MLB groups simply haven’t got loads of religion in his swing. If MLB groups are telling us they do not have rather more religion in him than they do in Polanco, we must always most likely pay attention.” –Chris Towers
Shane Baz traded to the Orioles
I wrote about Baz’s transfer to Baltimore right here::
“The Orioles are betting they’ll do one thing comparable right here with Baz getting into his age-27 season. And there are clearly instruments to work with right here when you look previous the ugly 4.78 ERA Baz put up in 2025. His xERA was 3.85, which suggests there was loads of poor luck in Baz’s outcomes. He has some strikeout upside and limits harm on contact nicely sufficient (.359 xwOBA on contact in 2025, .355 for his profession; .368 is league common), however has largely struggled with consistency.
And I feel the Rays method could have one thing to do with that. Many pitchers have talked about how the Rays philosophy can typically be boiled right down to, “Throw your greatest pitches as typically as potential, intention for the center of the zone‘, and let your stuff do the remaining.” That’s recommendation that has labored out nicely for a lot of pitchers (most notably Tyler Glasnow), however I feel it has been holding Baz again. He has good things, however would not essentially miss as many bats within the strike zone as you’ll anticipate, posting a roughly common in-zone contact fee allowed. That is an issue when Baz throws 53% of his pitches within the zone, in comparison with the league common of roughly 48%. These pitches within the zone will aid you keep away from walks, after all, however it’s exhausting to constantly miss bats that manner, and constantly lacking bats has been a giant challenge for Baz.” — Chris Towers
Brandon Lowe traded to the Rays
I wrote about Lowe’s slot in Pittsburgh right here:
“It’s a park downgrade for Lowe, although that won’t matter as a lot as you assume – he hit simply .240/.279/.456 at George M. Steinbrenner Area final season, whereas Tropicana Area (the place Lowe performed each season previous to final) is definitely a worse park for left-handed hitters than PNC Park. PNC is a harder park for righties and will play fairly honest for Lowe, so your expectations for him should not change an excessive amount of based mostly on this deal.
Which implies Lowe ought to stay among the best values on the second base place for Fantasy but once more. Regardless of coming off a bounce-back season, Lowe’s ADP in early NFBC drafts is simply 174.1. He is being held again by issues about his well being, which is honest, however he simply proved final season he can provide us one thing near a full season, and there simply aren’t many gamers who can provide you as large an edge on the competitors as Lowe does with homers relative to different second basemen.” — Chris Towers
Michael King indicators with Padres
The theme of staying put this offseason continues for an additional notable free agent, and the phrases are fairly attention-grabbing. In all, the deal might be price $75 million over three years, however King may select to decide out after the primary or second yr, incomes the least amount of cash upfront. That is the kind of deal a participant indicators when he thinks he will not get he is price and must resuscitate his worth, and to be honest, he did miss a lot of 2025 with nerve impingement in his shoulder. However he did have his standard velocity when he returned in September, and each contender may use a pitcher like him.
It is purpose to marvel if there are lingering doubts about King’s ineffectiveness in September. He did not look as sharp though the speed checked out. In all, his transfer again into the beginning rotation in 2024 has been a smashing success, and he has top-25 upside at beginning pitcher. On condition that the place is so deep, although, and he clearly has one thing to show nonetheless, he’ll come nearer to being the fiftieth beginning pitcher chosen. –Scott White
Ha-seong Kim indicators with Braves
Kim turned down his $16 million possibility with the Braves earlier this offseason however returns for an addition $4 million on a one-year. It is a good slot in that the Braves badly want a shortstop with some offensive capability and Kim badly wants to revive his worth after a season wrecked by accidents. He ought to play day by day simply as he did in September when the Braves claimed him off waivers from the Rays.
Whether or not he’ll carry out is one other matter. His 2025 was cut up evenly with 24 video games for the Rays and 24 for the Braves, and he did carry out higher as soon as he was again to enjoying repeatedly with the latter. However he additionally had zero steals with the latter and is not of a lot Fantasy curiosity with out these, significantly since he is more likely to bat low within the lineup. A 12-homer, 25-steal season is what you may moderately hope for, with 15 and 30 being his absolute upside, however he is far sufficient faraway from these sort of numbers that you need to method him with skepticism. He is a late-round decide in leagues that require a 3rd center infielder (corresponding to normal Rotisserie). –Scott White
Adolis Garcia indicators with Phillies
Garcia, 32, has struggled with points in each knees and hasn’t been an impression hitter since 2023. The Phillies are betting they’ll unlock one thing and at the very least squeeze a light improve from what Nick Castellanos has given them the previous few seasons. That is not a nasty guess on a one-year, $10 million contract. It is an improve in supporting solid and residential park, and that might present a bit increase to Garcia’s worth. However I am not anticipating a George Springer-esque resurgence after two years of an OPS beneath .700 and declining underlying metrics. Possibly you may get 20 homers and 10 steals out of him as a late-round flier. –Chris Towers
Josh Bell indicators with Twins
Bell’s profession has been outlined by inconsistency, so a bounce-back in 2025 is not out of the query. That is very true given his underlying metrics in 2025, which have been the perfect we have seen from him since 2021, with a .358 xwOBA to associate with his greatest strikeout fee in three years. It did not present up within the field rating till the second half of the season, when Bell hit .267/.353/.489. It isn’t unreasonable to assume there is a comparable ceiling in right here for 2026, although you definitely should not draft Bell anticipating that. As a late-round flier for energy, you are able to do worse, nonetheless. –Chris Towers
Merrill Kelly indicators with Diamondbacks
Petty easy, this one. Aside from his two months with the Rangers on the finish of 2025, our solely recollection of Kelly is with the Diamondbacks, so we all know precisely what to anticipate. The one query could be if he is starting to age out at 37, seeing as he was extra hittable throughout his 10 begins with the Rangers. No group would have a greater learn on him than the Diamondbacks, although, and so they’re keen to pay him $20 million every of the subsequent two years. His velocity and ERA estimators have held regular, so I feel you possibly can draft him with confidence as an innings-eating rotation stabilizer within the fifth or sixth starter vary. You may most likely find yourself utilizing him greater than you anticipate to. –Scott White
Isaac Collins traded to Royals
For a minute there, Collins was the recent factor in Fantasy, slashing .338/.425/.544 over a two-month stretch from June 12 by way of Aug. 11. And whereas he slashed solely .182/.303/.293 thereafter, slipping into extra of a part-time function, he nonetheless ended up reaching base at a .368 clip as a rookie. That is probably what attracted the Royals to Collins, and with them, the switch-hitter is extra more likely to play day by day.
My concern, although, is that the midseason sizzling stretch inflated his stat line past what’s really cheap and that the season merely ended earlier than the correction might be totally utilized. He wasn’t a extremely regarded prospect, would not hit the ball with a lot authority, and would not make contact at an unusually excessive fee. He is good at taking walks, as his minor league historical past additionally exhibits, however main league pitchers will put a cease to that if the bat is not impactful sufficient. They’re higher at controlling the place the ball goes and can merely pound the strike zone. Possibly Collins will excel with the Royals and provides them their very own model of Sal Frelick. It is extra potential with them than with the Brewers. However that is modest upside for a participant with such a questionable profile, making him not price contemplating outdoors of five-outfielder leagues. –Scott White
Dustin Could indicators with Cardinals
Not a nasty gamble for the Cardinals when you think about that Could was a prized commodity as not too long ago as a yr in the past. He was getting back from flexor tendon surgical procedure in addition to a Tommy John revision, and clearly, issues did not prove so nicely. The Dodgers determined to chop bait, transport him to the Crimson Sox for a few minor leaguers, however it did not enhance his circumstances in any respect. If nothing else, the Cardinals can present him with alternative given the sorry state of their beginning rotation. He is misplaced about 2 mph from all three variations of his fastball (four-seamer, two-seamer and cutter), however he nonetheless will get depraved horizontal motion on a number of of his pitches. He is an excessive amount of of a venture to draft in standard-size leagues, but when he begins getting some buzz this spring, that might change. –Scott White
It wasn’t even every week in the past that I mentioned Kyle Finnegan could be the favourite for saves in Detroit after signing a two-year, $19 million deal. I take all of it again. Jansen, the lively saves chief and fourth on the all-time checklist with 476, turns into essentially the most confirmed nearer supervisor A.J. Hinch has ever had.
Hinch is notoriously noncommittal along with his ninth-inning decisions, which is why the Finnegan endorsement was a guarded one, however the final time he had a more in-depth extensively thought-about to be among the best within the sport, Roberto Osuna in 2019, he acquired him 38 saves. Jansen presumably would not go to a workforce that did not promise him the nearer function. The final time he acquired fewer than 25 saves in a season (2020 excluded) was 2011. It is true he isn’t as dominant as he as soon as was, however he continues to get the job achieved at 38 and has a very good probability for 30-plus saves on an anticipated contender. You need to goal him among the many prime 15 relievers in leagues that reward saves. –Scott White
Out with Pete Alonso. In with … Jorge Polanco? Sure, the Mets are going the thrifty route to switch their All-Star first baseman, signing a longtime second baseman with the intention of transitioning him there. I say it is the thrifty route, however actually it is extra just like the short-term route, seeing as Polanco is slated to make $40 million over two years.
He earned that pay enhance with a resurgent season in Seattle, his greatest in 4 years. He had patellar tendon surgical procedure previous to the season, a situation he had been managing for years, and the underlying information backs up the resurgence, particularly by way of improved exit velocities a enormously improved strikeout fee. In concept, he’ll a greater venue, however his xHR by ballpark is about the identical in New York and Seattle over the previous few years. Principally, Polanco’s worth is tied to his second base eligibility, given that it is the weakest infield place, and this transfer places him within the dialog for prime 10 there. –Scott White
Ken Rosenthal already answered your query: The Braves nonetheless anticipate to make use of Raisel Iglesias as their nearer in 2026. The deal pays Suarez $13 million in 2026, with $16 million due in every of 2027 and 2028; with Iglesias solely underneath contract for another yr after re-signing earlier this offseason, the plan right here appears fairly clear. For 2026, Suarez is an overqualified setup man; in 2027, he ought to enter because the odds-on favourite to shut. After all, he may find yourself closing in 2026 anyway, as Iglesias misplaced the texture for his slider in 2025 and subsequently misplaced his job (earlier than finally profitable it again). Successful it again from Suarez, who has a 2.87 ERA and 76 saves over the previous two seasons, is perhaps a harder process. Iglesias stays within the top-12 nearer dialogue for 2026 drafts, however he is acquired to be seen as a riskier decide now than he was earlier than the Suarez signing. –Chris Towers
Pete Alonso indicators with Orioles
After he sat on the free agent market till February final offseason, Pete Alonso discovered his house a lot earlier this time round. And, for the primary time in his skilled profession, he will not be with the Mets, as he landed with the Orioles Wednesday on a five-year deal that can make him one of many highest-paid first basemen in MLB historical past. It is a transfer that solutions some questions for the Orioles lineup in 2026 and raises lots extra for the Mets. For extra, try out my full-length article. –Chris Towers
This is one more free agent who examined the free agent market and determined the grass wasn’t greener, on this case re-upping with the Tigers on a two-year, $19 million deal. Finnegan is probably not of the identical stature as Kyle Schwarber, who additionally selected to remain put Tuesday, however he might be of use in Fantasy if he finally ends up claiming the nearer function for the Tigers. (Replace: He probably will not with the next signing of Kenley Jansen.)
He kind of cut up the function with Will Vest after coming over from the Nationals in a deadline deal, however he has extra expertise in it and have become a a lot better pitcher with the Tigers, placing collectively a 1.50 ERA, 0.72 WHIP and 11.5 Okay/9 in 16 appearances. Mainly, that they had him throw his splitter twice as typically, and clearly, they assume these good points will stick. –Scott White
Kyle Schwarber returning to the Phillies is a giant deal for real-life baseball. Schwarber is without doubt one of the 15 or so greatest hitters in baseball (and the variety of higher energy hitters is a good shorter checklist), however he is additionally been an integral a part of the Phillies’ clubhouse throughout their latest run of contending, and so they have been combating off quite a lot of different contenders and would-be contenders for Schwarber’s providers. That is a listing that included sudden names just like the Reds and Pirates, in addition to the Orioles, Mets, and others who have been all in on Schwarber to the tune of at the very least $100 million. His touchdown spot may have basically reshaped the look of any certainly one of a few half-dozen groups.
For Fantasy, although, this deal would not actually matter all that a lot. We’ll at all times take the established order reigning when that includes an elite hitter staying in a very good lineup, and it is most likely the perfect probability Schwarber has to recreate his unbelievable 2025 season. But it surely additionally would not – or should not – change how anybody views him for Fantasy. It is the established order, in spite of everything.
I’ll say this: I feel Schwarber’s value in drafts might be at the very least a bit bit unreasonable. After sporting an ADP close to seventieth getting into 2025, he is sitting at 24.5 in early NFBC drafts to date. He was price that in 2025, however he additionally hit 18 extra homers than he had in 2024 and 9 greater than every other season in his profession, so anticipating a repeat might be asking rather a lot. He’ll hit 40 or so with elite run manufacturing numbers, however he hasn’t hit higher than .248 since 2021 (when he was shielded from lots of the hardest lefties on the schedule in a manner he now not is) and he’s a Util/DH-only participant for Fantasy. None of that needs to be thought-about a deal breaker, however it could actually create some powerful team-building problems when it prices a second-round decide. –Chris Towers
Edwin Diaz indicators with Dodgers
Edwin Diaz becoming a member of the Dodgers is one other transfer that feels extra momentous in actual life than in Fantasy. The Dodgers’ bullpen was their greatest weak point in 2025 and now they’ve signed the perfect nearer in the marketplace. After all they did. However Diaz was going to be a more in-depth irrespective of the place he signed, and if something, signing with a workforce that gave out an enormous contract to a different shut final offseason and has different pitchers with closing expertise means there is perhaps a bit extra danger in drafting Diaz than there was earlier than. He’ll most likely stay a dominant drive and safe 35-plus saves for the Dodgers, however he is risky sufficient that it isn’t unimaginable to foresee a world by which he loses this job. Keep in mind, it occurred to him for a stretch in 2024.
Tanner Scott is clearly undraftable in most leagues now, whereas Devin Williams appears safe a top-12 nearer and a high-profile bounce-back candidate if the Mets keep out of the nearer market transferring ahead. –Chris Towers
That the Mariners would commerce Ford, who has been one of many prime catcher prospects from the time he was drafted in 2021, was all however sure given the Cal Raleigh of all of it. That they’d get solely a blah reliever in return was sudden. However wait, wasn’t Ferrer the Nationals‘ nearer by the tip of final season? Yeah, as a result of they traded everybody else away. He throws exhausting, however the numbers definitely aren’t closer-caliber, and even if you wish to say his 3.03 FIP is extra indicative of his capability than his 4.48 ERA, so what? Left-handers who get floor balls at a excessive fee, whereas helpful, usually aren’t thought-about prime commerce forex. The Mariners really gave up a second minor-leaguer within the deal as nicely.
Clearly, Ferrer will not be closing video games anymore, so no matter Fantasy worth he may need had is now kaput. What about Ford? Effectively, the Nationals do have Keibert Ruiz locked up by way of 2030, however he was ravaged by concussions in 2025 and has carried out beneath expectations every of the previous two seasons. In contrast to Raleigh, he is a catcher that Ford may moderately overtake. Ford stands out most for his plate self-discipline, having reached base at a .408 clip in 2025 and a .405 clip for his minor league profession, and he has playable pop to his pull aspect. He had been a prolific base-stealer previously however put a cease to that in 2025, for some purpose. With as deep as catcher is correct now, you will not must make a giant play for him even in two-catcher leagues, however that might change if he garners loads of buzz this spring. –Scott White
There have been three lesser prospects moved on this deal as nicely, however we’ll follow the precept gamers. The Password, as Garcia is usually recognized, is a borderline top-100 prospect who acquired 9 plate appearances for the Crimson Sox final yr after a productive exhibiting between Double- and Triple-A. However whereas energy is meant to be his calling card, he delivered solely an 86.4 mph common exit velocity in his 81 video games at Triple-A. His house run output depends on him pulling the ball within the air with regularity, and since PNC Park charges because the worst house run venue for right-handed hitters, that is … sort of an issue. Garcia additionally had a excessive chase fee at Triple-A, to not point out a excessive miss fee on pitches within the zone, so there are ample causes for skepticism right here, even when this traded presents him a a lot clearer path to enjoying time.
Oviedo additionally strikes me as extra of a curiosity than a real asset. His 9 begins late in 2025 at the very least confirmed him to be wholesome after a prolonged restoration from Tommy John surgical procedure, however the outings have been quick, with just one exceeding 5 innings, and the three.57 ERA was undercut by a 4.92 FIP. Whereas he exhibits some potential as a bat-misser, it isn’t almost sufficient to make up for his vulnerability to walks and residential runs, and my guess is that he’ll serve extra as a swingman than a full-time starter for the Crimson Sox. –Scott White
“My guess at this time is that Pagan doesn’t signal as a more in-depth.” That is what I mentioned on the Fantasy Baseball At the moment podcast Monday night time. However the a method to make sure he’ll stay a more in-depth is to re-sign with the workforce that simply used him as a more in-depth, and that is precisely what occurred Wednesay Monday Emilio Pagan indicators with Reds re-upped him on a two-year $20 million deal.
It may work out tremendous. It clearly did in 2025, seeing him recording 32 saves with a 2.88 ERA. But it surely marked solely the second time in six years that he had an ERA beneath 4.40, and he remained as homer-prone as ever, which accounts for the three.72 FIP and three.91 xFIP. Pitching in Cincinnati ought to solely exacerbate these house run issues, and simply because he dodged a bullet the primary time does not imply he’ll once more. He deserves to be drafted among the many prime 20 relievers, simply because there are solely so many in line for saves, however there’s particular bust potential. –Scott White
Mullins’ manufacturing has been in decline for some time now and hit all-time low when he batted .182 with a .565 OPS after becoming a member of the Mets in a midseason commerce. However he is nonetheless a plus defender in heart discipline (which is greater than might be mentioned for Chandler Simpson), his exit velocities have held pretty regular even with the diminished manufacturing, and he simply delivered a career-high pull-air fee. There are worse gambles a thrifty membership may make than to ink a former 30/30 man to a one-year, $7 million deal. My greatest guess is that Mullins matches into some sort of platoon and places up usable energy/pace numbers for a five-outfielder league. Seeing as he is a profession .189 hitter with a .519 OPS at Tropicana Area, although, I would be extra more likely to alter these expectations down than up. –Scott White
Early December is outwardly the time to buy failed main league pitchers who rehabilitated their worth in East Asia, as a result of Kay turns into the third such participant to register two days. He is the primary to signal out of Japan reasonably than Korea, and whereas his 2025 strikeout fee wasn’t almost as spectacular in Cody Ponce’s, he was enjoying within the harder league.
The 1.74 ERA is a crimson herring (as such an ERA nearly at all times is) as a result of NPB has been going by way of a dead-ball part the previous few years, however Kay is a vastly totally different pitcher than after we final noticed him in 2023. He is now primarily sinker/cutter reasonably than fastball/slider, turning into the kind of excessive ground-ball pitcher (56 % fee in 2025) that may overcome a modest strikeout fee, and has a much wider arsenal generally. He is unlikely to be rather more than a streamer in Fantasy, significantly pitching for a non-contender just like the White Sox, however as with each pitcher who takes this profession path, there may be the potential for a shock. –Scott White
Cody Ponce indicators with Blue Jays
After an unremarkable stint with the Pirates earlier within the decade, Ponce spent a couple of years refining his sport abroad, and it culminated with him incomes MVP honors within the Korean Baseball Group final yr. The award is straightforward to grasp given the numbers, however what’s behind these numbers? Apparently, he is added 2 mph to his fastball since we final noticed him in 2021, and he is additionally added a kick change (typically recognized as a splitter) that produces unbelievable tumbling motion with its minimal spin (typically beneath 1,000 rpm). Although he additionally has a sweeper, it is the fastball and changeup that primarily account for his 12.6 Okay/9, the best for any former MLB pitcher getting back from the KBO.
The Blue Jays are making a reasonable-sized dedication, too. Three years, $30 million, whereas having the potential to make him a discount, is not stab-in-the-dark cash. They’re satisfied Ponce can maintain down a rotation spot for them, and I am satisfied he’ll at the very least be viable in Fantasy, along with his core elements suggesting even higher than that. Nonetheless, the 2026 beginning pitcher crop is deep sufficient in upside performs that I could not justify utilizing greater than a late-round decide on him. –Scott White
A former fourth-round decide of the Diamondbacks, Weiss wasn’t ok to succeed in the majors earlier than departing for Korea in 2024, however after placing collectively spectacular numbers there in 2025 (see above), he’ll get an opportunity to compete for a spot within the Astros rotation on a one-year, $2.6 million deal. That is not a fantastic monetary dedication, clearly, which suggests {that a} market didn’t develop for the soon-to-be 29-year-old. Between that and the dearth of clear explanations for Weiss’ breakthrough (past obscure references to improved command and a broader secondary arsenal), I am inclined to assume it was much less about Weiss himself than his competitors. He could have stretches when he is streamable, however barring some eye-opening efficiency this spring, he ought to go largely undrafted in Fantasy. –Scott White
The Bronx chewed up and spit out Williams, heretofore a lockdown ace of a more in-depth, however certainly the opposite New York borough will makes for a gentler touchdown. Or … in no way. The truth is, this deal presents little in the best way of closure as a result of the Mets’ mountain of sources permits them to pursue one other big-dollar reliever, as much as and together with Edwin Diaz, who would after all take priority over Williams within the ninth inning. However the Mets are paying Williams nearer cash — three years, $45 million, together with further incentives — so for now, let’s presume he is their nearer.
Whereas we’d have appreciated him to land in a lower-pressure locale, the one purpose to quote New York as the reason for his struggles is as a result of there aren’t any extra apparent ones. His pitches all had the identical form and velocity. He missed bats at his standard elite fee. His 3.11 xERA and a pair of.68 FIP have been each a lot decrease than his 4.79 ERA. He was principally the identical pitcher. The outcomes have been simply worse. Usually, you’d guess on a rebound in that situation, and I nonetheless assume that is the proper transfer, which is why I rank him simply inside my prime 12 relievers. However I would really feel higher had he signed some place else. –Scott White
Whereas some groups have been reportedly eyeing Helsley as a rotation candidate, the Orioles plan to make use of him as a more in-depth with Felix Bautista (shoulder) anticipated out for almost all of 2016. Helsley was a fantastic nearer not so way back, registering 49 saves with a 2.04 ERA in 2024, however he was not so nice or perhaps a nearer when final we noticed him, placing collectively a 7.20 ERA in 22 appearances for the Mets following a midseason commerce from the Cardinals.
After attending to the basis of the issue, which was apparently a inform in his supply, he completed his Mets tenure with seven scoreless innings, and the Orioles evidently felt assured sufficient give him a two-year, $28 million deal. It isn’t the kind of contract that an ace reliever who’s solely worry-free would get, however it’s a strong dedication nonetheless. With the Orioles anticipated again in playoff rivalry, you need to anticipate drafting Helsley within the 12-15 vary at reduction pitcher. He is has the potential to be prime 5. –Scott White
$210 million is some huge cash for a pitcher coming off a 4.55 ERA. However as I wrote in my extra in-depth breakdown of the signing, that ERA would not come near telling the entire story with Stop. Sure, he is frustratingly inconsistent. He is additionally a real workhorse, taking the ball each fifth day and offering quantity and strikeouts. With ERA and WHIP danger, positive, however there’s clearly loads of upside there, too. He is going off the board in early drafts round eightieth general, because the twentieth SP off the board or thereabouts, and that looks like an ideal tremendous worth for a man along with his combination of upside and projectable quantity. There aren’t many pitchers whose absolute best-case situation is as attractive for Fantasy as Stop’s. –Chris Towers
The Crimson Sox have been anticipated to make a giant splash in both free company or within the commerce marketplace for a rotation improve, and this commerce is perhaps it. Grey struggled to a 4.28 ERA and 1.23 WHIP final season, however his underlying metrics have been extra indicative of a top-of-rotation arm, together with a 26.7% strikeout fee, 3.39 FIP and three.29 SIERA. The 36-year-old has seen his velocity decline in consecutive seasons, nonetheless, and his high quality of contact metrics took a giant step again in 2025, which is why his xERA was a extra pedestrian 3.90 mark. He is a stable pitcher, each for the Crimson Sox and for Fantasy, however I do not assume he is a needle-mover in both occasion at this level in his profession, even when the Crimson Sox may be capable to get him of their pitching lab and squeeze some additional worth out of him. There’s nonetheless room for the Crimson Sox to improve this rotation, in different phrases. –Chris Towers
In trade for Grey, the Cardinals acquired a few attention-grabbing youthful arms. Fitts is extra of a recognized amount, and he hasn’t given us a lot purpose to be excited. He had a 5.00 ERA with even worse peripherals in 2025, so whereas he may slide into the Cardinals rotation, it will largely be for a scarcity of higher choices. Clarke is the extra attention-grabbing long-term venture, with a fastball that may contact 100 mph and a slider that’s already a weapon. The remainder of the arsenal is a piece in progress. He walked 27 in simply 38 innings throughout two ranges of A-Ball in 2025, so this can be a actual venture. If all comes collectively, he may be capable to hack it as a starter, however he appears extra like a Ryan Helsley-in-waiting kind of high-leverage bullpen arm in the long term.
The opposite factor price noting right here is that, with Grey out of the image and Miles Mikolas leaving by way of free company, there are a number of holes within the Cardinals rotation proper now. Prospects Quinn Mathews and Tink Therefore have expertise within the excessive minors and might be choices for the 2026 rotation, although each have troublesome 2025 campaigns that might lead the workforce to need to see extra success at Triple-A earlier than they make that decision. For Fantasy, these are each names to know heading into spring coaching in case they’ll steal rotation spots. Liam Doyle, a 2025 first-round decide, appears more likely to be extra of a midseason consideration after he threw simply 3 2/3 post-draft innings within the professionals, however he may completely be a quick riser early in 2026, too. –Chris Towers
The Mets and Rangers continued the early offseason pattern of buying and selling main leaguers for different main leaguers in an trade of two growing older ones with a number of years remaining on their offers. Nimmo, who’s 32, has proven solely faint indicators of decline, if even these, persevering with to make worthwhile contributions in house runs and stolen bases with large run and RBI manufacturing. He is becoming a member of a worse lineup that performs in a worse venue, however any adjustments to his manufacturing could be slight, presuming good well being.
Semien, who’s 35, has seen his manufacturing nosedive the previous two years, however this commerce could serve to gradual and even reverse the decline given the park improve. Statcast estimates he’d have a dozen extra house runs throughout that very same two-year span if he had performed each sport at Citi Area. That is my greatest takeaway from this commerce, however Chris Towers has written an entire breakdown of it, which you will discover right here. –Scott White
Iglesias re-ups for one yr at precisely the identical fee ($16 million) because the earlier three. Clearly, the Braves have been in search of continuity, and that makes the evaluation right here reasonably simple. He is the nearer once more for an anticipated contender and a close to lock for 30 saves, offered he stays wholesome. He missed that quantity by one in 2025, largely due to some early-season struggles. As soon as he reduce on his slider, although, he was clearly again to kind, compiling a 1.25 ERA, 0.69 WHIP and 10.0 Okay/9 in his closing 45 appearances. That’ll play, all proper, and positions Iglesias to be one of many first 12 relievers off the board in 2026. –Scott White
What a fall for Rodriguez, who was regarded a pair years in the past as one of many sport’s burgeoning aces after a multi-year run as a top-10 general prospect. Now, the Orioles have dealt him away for one yr of some 32-year-old outfielder who simply hit .228. That is not solely honest to Ward, who additionally related for 36 house runs in 2025, however most projections have him regressing to 25-30 in 2026. He is additionally becoming a member of a workforce that is loaded with solid-but-less-than-All-Star-worthy nook bats. There already wasn’t room within the lineup for all of Dylan Beavers, Samuel Basallo, Coby Mayo, Tyler O’Neill and Ryan Mountcastle. Now, there’s room for one fewer. It will not be Ward, however does that imply we’ll have to attend even longer for Basallo to contribute in Fantasy? In that case, that is a bummer.
However the actual story right here is Rodriguez, who Angels GM Perry Minasian says is predicted to be prepared for spring coaching after lacking all of 2025 with lat and elbow points. The lat has been a recurring drawback, additionally costing Rodriguez time in 2024 and as a minor leaguer in 2022, and the elbow required debridement surgical procedure in August. The Orioles solely made this deal as a result of they could not belief him to remain wholesome, however having mentioned that, he would not be the primary pitcher to beat a multi-year damage pattern and nonetheless go on to satisfy his potential. Now we have no proof that his stuff has diminished with this newest rash of accidents, so I am nonetheless inclined to rank him as a prime 75 beginning pitcher for 2026. This commerce is bound to offer some drafters pause even at that late stage, although. –Scott White
Grisham’s determination to just accept the qualifying supply is a curious one on condition that he simply had far and away his greatest season, homering 34 occasions as the first heart fielder for the Yankees. Some main retailers have been projecting him to obtain a four- or five-year deal for the same annual worth because the qualifying supply, however his agent most likely has a greater learn in the marketplace.
If nothing else, you may say he is betting on himself with this transfer, hoping to re-enter the market subsequent offseason with out the stigma of being a one-hit marvel, however now comes the exhausting half: doing it once more. You may assume the return to Yankee Stadium will assist, on condition that he is a left-handed batter, however he really hit two-thirds of his house runs on the street. If the Yankees are severe about giving Jasson Dominguez common enjoying time subsequent yr and in addition bringing again Cody Bellinger, Grisham could also be combating for at-bats once more. The Yankees nonetheless make for a greater touchdown than loads of golf equipment, however you possibly can perceive why drafters may method Grisham with some skepticism in 2026. –Scott White
A modest exhibiting by Torres in 2025 led him to just accept the Tigers’ qualifying supply reasonably than testing the free agent market, and also you may assume a return to Comerica Park is a nasty transfer for his Fantasy worth given its popularity. But it surely really performed nicely for right-handed hitters in 2025, and Torres batted .285 with a .449 slugging proportion there in comparison with .223 and .327 on the street. On steadiness, he carried out nicely beneath his .271 xBA and .452 xSLG, having delivered his greatest common exit velocity in three years and a few of his greatest stroll and strikeout numbers ever, so some higher luck would go a good distance towards redeeming him in Fantasy. He is not a surefire top-12 alternative, although, even at a place as skinny as second base. –Scott White
One thing tells me that if Woodruff hadn’t gone into the offseason nursing a lat damage, he would not have needed to settle for the Brewers’ qualifying supply, as a substitute pursuing a multi-year deal. However now, he is again in prove-it mode after already overcoming a extra vital shoulder damage in close to miraculous trend. Despite the fact that the shoulder capsule surgical procedure that he underwent in 2023 took 3 mph off his fastball — usually a career-ender for a pitcher, significantly one so fastball-reliant — he principally picked up the place he left off statistically, even delivering the perfect strikeout fee of his profession. A brand new cutter is basically to credit score for saving him, and his fortunes rose and fell with its utilization. He’ll be lots motivated now that he is pitching for a contract once more, however he would have been price choosing among the many prime 36 beginning pitchers both manner. –Scott White
The Cubs’ determination to say no Imanaga’s three-year, $57.5 million possibility after the season makes extra sense now that we see the best way every little thing performed out. They most likely suspected he’d settle for the $22.025 million qualifying supply, which he did, so now they nonetheless have him however with out the multi-year dedication.
The maneuver would appear to alleviate suspicions that he is cooked, which have been price entertaining on condition that quite a lot of key metrics fell off throughout his sophomore season, particularly his Okay/9 fee (from 9.0 to 7.3) and his swinging-strike fee (from 14.5 % to 11.9 %). It is kind of deceptive to name it his sophomore season on condition that he is 32, and his age contributed to these fears of decline as nicely. Nonetheless, he was efficient when wholesome, remaining a standout for WHIP particularly. Nobody will mistake him for an ace in 2026, however he needs to be drafted within the center rounds. –Scott White
Usually, a hitter signing with the Mariners would not be essentially the most favorable consequence given T-Cellular Park’s popularity as a pitcher-friendly venue. However Naylor did not have any issues there after coming over in a midseason commerce with the Diamondbacks, batting .360 (32 for 89) with 5 homers and a 1.015 OPS within the Mariners’ house video games.
Furthermore, the Mariners appeared to unlock the base-stealer in him. His 11 stolen bases in 93 video games with the Diamondbacks have been stunning sufficient, however then he had 19 in simply 54 video games with the Mariners. Given his third percentile dash pace, another workforce may need put a cease to that, however the Mariners do not appear to care. He was succeeding, in spite of everything. It is uncertain he steals 30 once more, which is why he stays solely eighth in my first base rankings, however a return to the Mariners improves Naylor’s probabilities of remaining a base-stealer in some capability. For extra, try Chris Towers’ full-length article. –Scott White
