Heading into 2026, first base is in a touch higher place than it was a 12 months in the past. And that is virtually fully as a consequence of one man: Nick Kurtz.
First basemen as an entire had only a 107 wRC+ in 2024, the bottom mark since at the least 2002. In 2025, that bounced again a bit to a 109 mark, although that’s nonetheless the fourth-lowest mark on the place in that span. The variety of respectable four-category contributors on the place continues to shrink, and what is perhaps most regarding is that those who stay are, by and huge, on the unsuitable aspect of 30 or about to get there.
Among the many prime 10 finishers at first base in 2025, solely Nick Kurtz, Vladimir Guerrero, and Vinnie Pasquantino are youthful than 28 (and Pasquantino turns 28 this offseason); increase that bar to 30, and Rafael Devers and Josh Naylor make it, however that also means half of the highest 10 are of their 30s. The period of Paul Goldschmidt dominating the place is clearly over, and the Bryce Harper/Freddie Freeman/Matt Olson/Pete Alonso group are on the age the place fast decline, whereas not anticipated, would not precisely be shocking.
And we’re nonetheless ready for the altering of the guard. Kurtz did his half in 2025 and would be the consensus prime choice off draft boards in 2026 after hitting .290/.383/.619 as a 22-year-old rookie. In any other case, we’re seeing the outcomes of some altering league-wide traits – higher defensive place continues to flatten the positional curve even after the shift was restricted, whereas the common DH continues to push sure different gamers off first base who would possible have landed there in any other case – in addition to a very poor crop of first base prospect outcomes over the previous decade.
Trying on the Prime 101 prospects lists from BaseballProspectus.com because the 2017, simply half of the 28 gamers listed as first basemen have even gotten to 500 plate appearances within the majors. Permitting for the truth that a few of them have not actually had the prospect to determine themselves but, we will simply isolate from 2017 by 2023’s lists, which sees all however 4 reaching that 500-PA marker. That is higher.
Nonetheless, simply attending to 500 PA is not what we’re in search of; we’re in search of affect bats, and that is the place the primary base prospects of latest years actually fall quick. Simply 9 of 16 have a profession wRC+ of at the least 100 (that is league common), and that quantity could be even decrease with out relative breakouts from Spencer Torkelson and Andrew Vaughn this season. Increase that bar to 110 – so, simply above the common first baseman in 2025’s down atmosphere for the place – and we’ve simply Yordan Alvarez (who hasn’t actually performed 1B within the majors and is not eligible for 2026 there), Pete Alonso, Triston Casas, Cody Bellinger, and Josh Bell. Bell is now not greater than a late-round flier for Fantasy, and Casas has been fairly good when on the sector, however has missed a bunch of time with accidents and hasn’t actually made an affect exterior of the second half of the 2023 season, which leaves us with … Alonso and Bellinger because the true success tales for the place since 2017. You possibly can throw Vladimir Guerrero in there (he got here up as a 3rd baseman) if you wish to make issues look higher, however the actuality is, there simply have not been a whole lot of hits amongst first base prospects these days.
And we’re feeling it on the MLB stage. These older stalwarts are nonetheless principally holding it down, although there are warning indicators for Harper, Olson, Devers, and Freeman which have knocked them down a peg or two. Kurtz is doing his half, however we’d like some reinforcements on the place earlier than the underside really falls out.
Is that assist coming in 2026? Learn on for my ideas on the most important breakouts from 2025, the most important rankings risers, some rookies to know, and extra. However, spoiler alert: I believe it is extra possible the place is in worse form this time subsequent 12 months than the alternative.
2025 First Base Assessment
- Pete Alonso, NYM: .272 – 87 – 38 – 126 – 1
- Josh Naylor, SEA: .295 – 81 – 20 – 92 – 30
- Cody Bellinger, NYY: .272 – 89 – 29 – 98 – 13
- Rafael Devers, SF: .252 – 99 – 35 – 109 – 1
- Nick Kurtz, ATH: .290 – 90 – 36 – 86 – 2
- Matt Olson, ATL: .272 – 98 – 29 – 95 – 1
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr., TOR: .292 – 96 – 23 – 84 – 6
- Freddie Freeman, LAD: .295 – 81 – 24 – 90 – 6
- Vinnie Pasquantino, KC: .264 – 72 – 32 – 113 – 1
- Michael Busch, CHC: .262 – 78 – 34 – 90 – 4
- Yandy Diaz, TB: .300 – 79 – 25 – 83 – 3
- Tyler Soderstrom, ATH: .276 – 75 – 25 – 93 – 8
Okay, we have gotta discuss Josh Naylor right here. He turned the slowest participant within the Statcast period to steal 30 bases, and it wasn’t notably shut – Juan Soto stole his 38 whereas rating within the thirteenth percentile in dash pace, whereas Naylor was within the second percentile. Earlier than these two, Kyle Tucker in 2023 was the slowest 30-steal man, and he was within the thirty third percentile. Naylor was an extremely opportunistic baserunner, particularly after the commerce to Seattle, as he stole 19 in 54 video games – a close to 60-steal tempo. In fact, this was additionally a contract 12 months, and steals tend to spike in contract years – which is sensible, as making an attempt steals is one factor a participant has a whole lot of management over to spice up their perceived worth available on the market. Does that imply Naylor will return to being a non-factor for steals if and when he lands with a brand new staff this offseason? There is not any assure, but when I set the over/beneath on steals in 2026 at 14.5 for Naylor, I in all probability would not take the over.
It is not like there was some type of position-wide pace rush occurring, both. His 30 steals have been greater than double the subsequent greatest first baseman, and performed a giant half in why he ranked so extremely regardless of merely fairly good numbers in any other case. That is purpose to fade Naylor in 2026.
As for the remainder of the place, it is just about what you count on at this level: Some actually robust four-category manufacturing on the prime finish, after which both batting common or energy specialists after that. Bryce Harper comes up simply in need of making this prime 12, principally as a consequence of accidents – although it’s price noting that he had a reasonably unremarkable season by his requirements, which is noteworthy as he approaches his mid-30s.
Largest Breakout from 2025
Nick Kurtz, Athletics
Kurtz is both going to be one of many 4 or 5 greatest hitters for the subsequent decade or there are going to be loads of dissatisfied Fantasy analysts and gamers. He completed his rookie season with a 1.002 OPS, changing into simply the sixth participant in MLB historical past with a 1.000 OPS in at the least 450 plate appearances as a rookie. And there aren’t a whole lot of flops on that listing: Albert Pujols, Aaron Choose, Ryan Braun, Ted Williams, and … Bernie Carbo? Okay, yeah, there’s one flop there, as Carbo would go on to have a .782 OPS over his subsequent 5 seasons, with only one part-time season the place he managed even a .900 OPS the remainder of his profession.
However even the blokes who remained superb hitters principally took a step again of their second season, too:
- Choose: 1.049 OPS as a rookie; .919 OPS his subsequent season
- Pujols: 1.013 OPS as a rookie; .955 OPS his subsequent season
- Braun: 1.004 OPS as a rookie; .888 OPS his subsequent season
- Williams: 1.045 OPS as a rookie; 1.036 OPS his subsequent season
- Bernie Carbo: 1.004 OPS as a rookie; .677 OPS his subsequent season
All 4 of them took a step again, although clearly Williams’ was marginal. And there is nothing unsuitable with simply being a high-.800s/low-.900s OPS bat. But when Kurtz will get pushed into the first-round vary in 2026 drafts (which appears possible at this level), it would not depart a lot margin for error. If he is simply Matt Olson subsequent season, that is nonetheless an amazing participant. However it will make Kurtz a reasonably large disappointment at that worth.
And there’s danger right here. He has prodigious abilities, but when his second-half strikeout fee enchancment would not stick, there’s apparent batting common danger right here for a man who had a 31% strikeout fee and .255 anticipated batting common general. His residence park will assist, however Kurtz has legit swing-and-miss points that may very well be uncovered. He’ll nonetheless hit for a bunch of energy, however anticipating Kurtz’ rookie season top-line numbers to only characterize his base-line shifting ahead is perhaps a mistake.
Largest Bust from 2025
Burger was being drafted as a top-10 first baseman coming into 2025. I used to be method out on him at that worth, and it ought to function a cautionary story shifting ahead. Burger is an excellent energy hitter, however that is all he does effectively. Not like many different energy hitters, Burger not often attracts a stroll, and if you mix that with effectively beneath common protection (at both nook spot) and nonexistent baserunning worth, and it left him with a really slim margin for error. On a Marlins staff determined for hitting, that by no means actually price him enjoying time, nevertheless it turned a problem on a Rangers staff with playoff aspirations and viable alternate options. When Burger is locked in, he is a really helpful participant in actual life regardless of his limitations, however he is additionally streaky, and it is untenable to play him on staff when issues aren’t going effectively. He very effectively could find yourself beginning someplace and put up one other 30-homer season in 2026, however this isn’t a profile you need to be chasing when it prices near a top-100 decide.
In the event you’re in search of a participant who may very well be in an identical spot in 2026, Eugenio Suarez involves thoughts (albeit at a special place). He’ll stroll greater than Burger and figures to get a large enough contract this offseason that his staff will really feel obliged to play him even when issues go sideways. However he is an identical one-dimensional slugger whose worth actually is determined by being an outlier energy hitter.
Largest rankings movers from 2025 to 2026
Up: Nick Kurtz, Athletics; Tyler Soderstrom, Athletics; Spencer Torkelson, Tigers
I believed I had Soderstrom pegged: He was an intriguing hitting prospect, however not one who would possible matter for Fantasy as soon as he misplaced catcher eligibility. He undoubtedly exceeded expectations in 2025, and with an xwOBA of .352 in comparison with his precise mark of .354, it appears sustainable. He fizzed out a bit after a scorching begin, slumping in Could and June, however ended up with an .853 OPS within the second half. I all the time wish to see how our breakouts modify to the changes, and Soderstrom did what we wished to see.
Torkelson has a little bit of that Jake Burger factor occurring for him. He is much more keen to take a stroll, however as we have seen in his profession, his enjoying time is rarely assured when he goes into slumps. The facility right here is legit, however enjoying half his video games in Detroit makes it an uphill climb at occasions, and he is somebody I am extra snug with as a nook infielder after I want energy particularly than somebody I wish to depend on as a cornerstone of my lineup.
Down: Christian Walker, Astros; Jake Burger, Rangers; Triston Casas, Pink Sox
Admit it: You did not notice Walker almost bought to 30 homers and 90 RBI, did you? In equity, Walker was mainly unplayably horrible for the primary three months of the season, coming into July with a .223/.286/.366 line. However he roughly appeared like himself for the ultimate three months of the season, hitting 15 homers with an .800 OPS within the second half of the season. That is not sufficient to make Walker a viable beginning first baseman once more heading into his age-35 season, however I do assume it’s good to be sure you remember about him on your nook infield spot for what needs to be some very low cost energy.
As for Casas … I dunno. He was unhealthy earlier than he bought damage, nevertheless it was solely 29 video games. However he additionally hasn’t been notably good in his MLB profession, definitely not because the second half breakout in 2023, at the least. There’s massive energy potential right here, and a transfer away from Fenway Park (one of many hardest parks for left-handed energy within the sport) in all probability would not be a nasty factor for him. However at this level, you must view him as only a late-round sleeper, I believe.
Offseason preview
Who wants an improve most?
That is not a small quantity. A few of these will likely be crammed both by incumbents re-signing or potential prospect promotions, however a few of these groups are possible simply going to proceed to have weak first base spots. For a staff just like the Marlins or Pirates who hope to take a step towards playoff rivalry this season, clearing the low bar of getting at the least league-average manufacturing from the primary base spot needs to be a giant precedence. We’ll see whether it is.
Prime impending free brokers
- Pete Alonso
- Cody Bellinger*
- Josh Naylor
- Rhys Hoskins**
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Josh Bell
*$25 million participant choice with a $5 million buyout
**$18 million mutual choice with a $4 million buyout
There are some shifting items right here, however Alonso has at the least already introduced he will likely be opting out and heading into free company. You must assume the Mets are heavy favorites to re-sign him, and I do not count on it to take almost as lengthy to come back to an settlement because it did final offseason.
Bellinger appears all however sure to decide out of the ultimate 12 months of his deal, although that hasn’t been confirmed but – however may very well be as quickly because the Yankees season ends. He brings athleticism and defensive versatility few different first baseman can match, which ought to result in a powerful marketplace for his providers now that we’ve a number of years of above-average manufacturing to go on. However leaving Yankee Stadium would not precisely be factor for this lefty’s manufacturing, so let’s hope he returns.
Naylor is the opposite massive bat remaining, although I may see him coping with a protracted negotiation as he tries to land what’s going to possible be his one and solely massive free agent contract. He is a nice hitter, and an particularly adept run-producer, however he is additionally restricted to 1B and is not prone to carry a lot worth to the desk past his bat, so it’s going to be a troublesome market. The remainder of these guys appear prone to accept one-year contracts as fill-ins for groups who do not wish to take a zero on the place but in addition do not wish to make a giant funding. Hoskins nonetheless looks like he has some juice left, however you are still principally simply hoping for barely above common manufacturing from him at this level.
Commerce candidates
There’s a whole lot of hypothesis right here, clearly, however we will make some educated guesses. The Rays do not wish to spend cash. The Pink Sox, Reds, Orioles, and Cubs have some log jams they may clear by shifting on from “ok” choices on the chilly nook. I might say Busch is the least prone to be traded, but when the Cubs do not view Moises Ballesteros as a long-term choice behind the plate, they in all probability want to maneuver him to first base sooner or later. In fact, he may be traded if the staff needs to improve their major-league roster with out dropping any 2025 contributors.
Prime 2026 rookies to know
You possibly can additionally add names like Xavier Isaac (Rays), Charlie Condon (Rockies), Cam Collier (Reds), Jonathan Lengthy (Cubs), Ryan Clifford (Mets), or Josue Briceno (Tigers), all of whom are listed at different positions or do not fairly crack international top-100 lists. However there aren’t a ton of true first base prospects within the excessive a part of most rankings lists to start with, and out of doors of Eldridge, no person appears poised to make a right away affect proper now. The offseason may change that, in fact, however do not count on the savior at first base to come back from the minors (at the least not once more, Nick Kurtz).
I do wish to pause and concentrate on Eldridge for a second, as a result of he’s somebody you wish to have in your radars. He bought a cup of espresso on the finish of the season for the Giants and predictably struggled – he was a 20-year-old simply two years faraway from being drafted who was enjoying by a wrist harm that finally required surgical procedure to take away a bone spur after the top of the season. That is a type of conditions the place, if Eldridge had simply spent the entire season toiling away within the minors (the place he had 25 homers in 102 video games and had a 120 wRC+ regardless of being one of many youngest gamers at each Double-A and Triple-A, he would enter 2026 with a ton of hype as he battled to make the roster in Spring Coaching. As a substitute he’ll enter the spring because the presumed starter at first base coming off an MLB cameo the place he struggled mightily, which ought to tamp down the hype.
However make no mistake: Eldridge is in the identical tier of prospect Kurtz was earlier than he made his debut and continues to be very a lot the type of participant it’s good to be enthusiastic about. Do not let his very temporary struggles scare you off.
