On this “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan” broadcast, moderated by Margaret Brennan:
- Financial institution of America CEO Brian Moynihan
- CBS Information contributors Samantha Vinograd, a former prime Homeland Safety official within the Obama administration, and Christopher Krebs, the previous director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Safety Company,
- CBS Information correspondents Main Garrett, Robert Costa, Jan Crawford, Jennifer Jacobs and Scott MacFarlane
Click on right here to browse full transcripts from 2025 of “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan.”
MARGARET BRENNAN: I am Margaret Brennan in Washington.
And this week on Face the Nation, as 2025 involves an finish, we’ll sit up for 2026 and what’s on the horizon for the financial system, nationwide safety, and extra.
2025 is nearly behind us. It has been a yr full of change that is turned Washington norms the wrong way up and a yr full of information of nice tragedy, but in addition moments of true triumph. What’s forward for People in 2026 with regards to the financial system?
We’ll flip to Wall Road and the chairman and CEO of Financial institution of America, Brian Moynihan, for the business’s financial forecast. We’ll have a look at nationwide safety threats and challenges from the rising use of synthetic intelligence with CBS Information contributors Samantha Vinograd and Chris Krebs.
And we’ll wrap up and look to the brand new yr with our CBS Information Washington correspondents in our annual roundtable.
It is all simply forward on Face the Nation.
Good morning, and welcome to Face the Nation.
We start once more with the highest difficulty this yr for People, the financial system.
Earlier this month, we spoke with the top of Financial institution of America, Brian Moynihan, in regards to the state of the financial system as we head in to 2026.
(Start VT)
MARGARET BRENNAN: Our CBS polling is displaying that the – most People requested this query say their vacation gadgets are onerous to afford.
BRIAN MOYNIHAN (CEO, Financial institution of America): Sure.
MARGARET BRENNAN: They’re pulling again as a result of incomes should not maintaining with inflation. But it surely’s a really completely different story whenever you have a look at the upper- revenue brackets.
BRIAN MOYNIHAN: Certain.
MARGARET BRENNAN: I do know you see knowledge of precise transactions.
BRIAN MOYNIHAN: Sure.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Are folks doing what they inform us they’re doing?
BRIAN MOYNIHAN: We not solely see it within the combination. We additionally see it in items.
And so should you look within the combination, the quantity spent via the Thanksgiving weekend on Black Friday and Cyber Monday via all of the month of November and the primary a part of December, it is – it is up 4, 4.25, 4.5 % versus final yr’s November. And so it is rising.
After which should you look by terciles, three buckets of revenue ranges, it is clear the folks within the backside revenue degree, at decrease revenue ranges are spending at a little bit quicker progress fee, however nonetheless rising, and within the center and higher quicker.
So, you understand, what they’re telling you is what they really feel. What they’re really seeing, is spending is fairly strong – fairly strong heading into the tip of the yr. And it has been form of going alongside like that every one of December.
Now, wages have grown, however inflation bothers folks. Jobs are – you understand, the unemployment fee’s very low, nevertheless it’s been rising. So there’s a whole lot of dialogue in there. On the finish of day, persons are spending. They’ve good credit score high quality. They’re employed. And we will see wages rising in – as folks’s paychecks are available at a 3 % clip. So it is a – it is fairly strong proper now.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Is that also, although stilted in direction of the upper-income brackets? Is it that Ok-shaped financial system some folks speak about?
BRIAN MOYNIHAN: Sure, our staff places the – seems to be at this.
Sure, it – the expansion fee distinction is larger, however all of – all of the third, a 3rd, a 3rd, all three thirds are rising. And so…
MARGARET BRENNAN: And also you assume that can proceed?
BRIAN MOYNIHAN: Sure, and that is been steady. And so that is the query. They develop at completely different charges, however they’re all rising, which all means they’re placing more cash within the financial system than they did this time final yr.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Why do you assume folks have sentiment that is low, however spending that is larger?
BRIAN MOYNIHAN: It is – you hear about it. You’ve got talked about it. It is this query of affordability and costs and making an attempt to determine how that – as a result of we had a really – a really unusual course of from ’20 via to now.
We had COVID lockdown. Then we had all of the stimulus. Then we had excessive inflation. After which we had wages caught as much as it. And should you draw a line and say, here is wages and here is spending and here is value progress, it is – they keep in sync throughout an extended time period, however they went at completely different occasions.
And they also noticed the inflation in ’20 – in, sure, ’20 and ’23 and ’24 that that was on their minds, they usually wish to see it subsist. And it will take a short while to subsist. However as you go into ’26, having come via ’25, the incremental hit of that will be decrease. And even when the Fed seems to be at it, they assume inflation retains working its manner down.
But it surely’s – it is what folks really feel. And you may’t low cost that. And it is also, at sure job classes and stuff, there’s been extra dislocation, and that is as a consequence of a number of the authorities downsizing and a number of the different issues occurring.
However – nevertheless it’s – it is not widespread. At 4 – you understand, 4.6 % unemployment is the final quantity they printed. That is nonetheless within the – in – – our enterprise careers, is definitely a really low unemployment fee, frankly.
MARGARET BRENNAN: OK, so, prior to now yr, commerce and tariffs, there have been a whole lot of shocks to the system.
BRIAN MOYNIHAN: Sure.
MARGARET BRENNAN: It was a giant concern. However Financial institution of America now initiatives President Trump’s technique is considered one of de-escalation, not escalation. Does that imply you see this commerce conflict with China cooling off?
BRIAN MOYNIHAN: Effectively, I believe, should you return to the place we have been in April, there was a whole lot of lack of knowledge about the place this is able to find yourself, and that affected small companies and medium-sized companies.
MARGARET BRENNAN: There was shock. There was shock on liberation day.
BRIAN MOYNIHAN: There was shock, the scale, sheer dimension, on the quantity, the {dollars}, throughout the board, et cetera.
What you could have seen now, as time has moved on, it is kind of a 15 % on one facet, after which the next quantity primarily based on individuals who will not commit to buy from the U.S. or will not decide to reducing their non-tariff boundaries and issues like that.
And so the query, once I speak to international governments they usually ask you the query about what’s this all imply or international CEOs, you say, look, you bought a alternative. You could be right here or be right here. You simply should make the selection. You are going to be – drive extra in direction of America, and you’ll come down to fifteen %.
To go from a ten % throughout the board to fifteen %, for the broad base of nations, not a big impact. And that is the place our staff says it is beginning to – it is beginning to de-escalate, in that you simply’re beginning to see the decision of the discussions into 15 % right here, 17 – completely different numbers.
While you put China, China’s a special query, due to the nationwide safety pursuits, the uncommon earth minerals, the magnets, batteries, simply A.I., all that stuff. It is a very completely different case.
And I believe additionally, between Mexico and China, the USMCA, which must be redone, can be a special case. However broadly, on the earth, you may see kind of the tip level right here, and now they’ve simply obtained to – it is started working via the system.
MARGARET BRENNAN: How a lot of a toll has that taken on small companies? I perceive B-of-A is the most important small enterprise lender.
BRIAN MOYNIHAN: So we are the largest small enterprise lender.
And as you are – if we have been sitting right here within the second quarter of this yr, it was a giant toll. They have been very – as a result of charges had gone up, and that prices them more cash as a result of they borrow on revolving traces of credit score. In different phrases, they borrow at floating fee, after which the tariffs got here in and brought on them, I am unsure I can get the products at what value and the way can I commit?
However as you went via the yr, charges got here down a little bit bit. So that they’re extra – their difficulty proper now could be, can I get the labor I have to do – to bid the contracts, to do the work I am doing? As a result of the immigration insurance policies have not settled in but, and that is inflicting folks concern.
It isn’t that they agree with them or are disagree with them. They simply have to have the reply, and that is what they’re on the lookout for. So, should you assume throughout 4 coverage regimes, tax, commerce, tariff, immigration, after which in the end, deregulation, you could have seen a decision of a whole lot of them, however I believe the following one for small enterprise, what they inform us is labor availability.
How they get there’s, I want folks to do that work, and I should be reliable, they’re right here, so give me a algorithm and I’ll go play with them. However I should be clarified of what the foundations are.
MARGARET BRENNAN: The Fed says exercise within the housing sector is weak. What do you see is behind that hesitation?
BRIAN MOYNIHAN: There are two elements to it.
One is, the speed construction is larger, so it is simply slowed down the exercise. So, if persons are going to promote a home to maneuver as much as a much bigger home or one thing, the price of debt goes to go up.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Proper.
BRIAN MOYNIHAN: In order that’s slowing down that exercise.
The second is constructing. And there is housing quantity shortages everywhere in the nation, some single-family – you may have single-family, multi – small multifloor items, issues like that, or much more, greater multifamily in main cities. However there is a common housing scarcity, as a result of, for therefore a few years, it has been onerous to get housing permitted.
And so the recommendation I give to anyone is, you are most likely not going to see the 10-year charges go down. Our teammates assume the Fed funds fee will get the low of three, and however the 10-year fee stays between 4 and 4.5, which suggests the mortgage fee will not be quite a bit completely different than it’s in the present day.
However should you improve provide, you will maintain costs flat, and wages will develop via it. And also you’re beginning to see costs have flattened out in lots of locations. So you bought to construct provide, and you bought to get allowing achieved, and you bought to try this. It is most likely the answer.
Shifting mortgage charges 50 foundation factors won’t be an enormous change. When you could have a bunch of individuals with 3 % mortgage charges, that is not going to be a change. And, by the best way, for the American financial system, we don’t wish to have an financial system that has to have that low a fee construction once more, as a result of meaning we’re not rising, we’re not profitable, and we’re most likely offsetting a recession.
So we should not be cheering for 3 % mortgage charges. It was an anomaly that occurred, and now we obtained to get again to regular.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Effectively, you do hear the administration speak about charges coming down as a very good factor.
BRIAN MOYNIHAN: Sure. Sure.
MARGARET BRENNAN: You are simply saying it is not a easy, fast repair.
BRIAN MOYNIHAN: Effectively, for the housing market.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Sure.
BRIAN MOYNIHAN: As a result of there’s 60 million – there’s 130-odd million households in America. Half of them do not have a mortgage. That is – this complete lock-in query…
MARGARET BRENNAN: Sure.
BRIAN MOYNIHAN: … will not be even a related query. They hire, and so you bought to convey – rental affordability is a query, or they personal outright, and that is a special query. They inherit a home, you understand, third technology, or one thing like that.
So it is a very advanced factor. However simplistic – simplistically, if mortgage charges come down, folks will pay extra. The fact is, if costs come down, folks have extra affordability on that facet. So I believe it really works itself via.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So let me ask you about Fannie and Freddie.
Taxpayers took a stake in the course of the monetary disaster in these mortgage lenders. The treasury secretary stated that they’re anticipated to return to the general public market within the subsequent yr, with the federal government promoting a portion of that stake.
Does Financial institution of America have a task in that transaction? However – however, for customers, is that truly going to push up the price of proudly owning a house?
BRIAN MOYNIHAN: Sure, I do not speak about consumer relationships.
However, look, it will not in the event that they maintain the assure. And – and the administration is aware of that and Secretary Bessent is aware of it. That assure helps maintain that mortgage fee down, but in addition supplies a 30-year mortgage, as a result of now, whenever you make a mortgage mortgage and not using a authorities assure, for a borrower who could also be on the qualification ranges there are extra advantageous to borrow.
You are making a call for the following 30 years that the borrower goes to be OK, or a whole lot of years.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Proper.
BRIAN MOYNIHAN: In order that assure is crucial to the U.S. getting fixed- fee mortgages and having a whole lot of mortgage availability.
After which they’ve run the issues fairly accountable for the reason that monetary disaster. Down funds have stayed substantial. So the credit score high quality of present portfolios is fairly good. They usually cannot lose that, as a result of that was the explanation – one of many the reason why we had the monetary disaster was the low down funds and plenty of mortgage loans with zero fairness in them.
And as quickly as fee – costs on homes got here down, the entire thing exploded, and all America was affected. So I believe they’re very aware of all that. And I believe the – however they’re crucial of the U.S. housing system. They all the time have been.
They’re an amazing firm. They’re an iconic firm for the U.S., frankly, now to place them collectively and are operating nicely.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So the president has introduced that he needs all these sweeping adjustments to the Federal Reserve. Chair Powell is about to retire from the job in Could.
How a lot does that job matter to the buyer? How do you clarify that?
BRIAN MOYNIHAN: Effectively, it is one of many fascinating issues.
So the president’s going to nominate a brand new chair of the Federal Reserve. He is obtained nice candidates. He’ll appoint anyone, and we’ll assist that candidate get the data to achieve success, and so we’ll see what he does. However that is his prerogative. You recognize, that is – he ought to do it.
There’s – in my thoughts, there’s an excessive amount of fascination with the Fed. We’re not – we’re a rustic – we’re a rustic that is pushed by the non-public sector, by what folks do, and the companies and the businesses, small firms and huge firms, medium-sized firms, and entrepreneurs and medical doctors and lawyer – all these folks drive our financial system.
The concept that we’re, like, hanging on the thread by the Fed shifting charges 25 foundation factors, it appears to me we have gotten out of whack. And so we obtained to get – for the reason that monetary disaster, the Fed had a giant position in stabilizing the financial system.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Sure.
BRIAN MOYNIHAN: That is what they’re purported to do. That went away various years in the past. It got here again a little bit bit in COVID.
They seem to be a lender of final resort. They’re there to stabilize markets and costs. However, aside from that, you should not know they exist, fairly frankly.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So you do not fear about all this, you understand, hand- wringing of political interference with the Fed as soon as that new place is crammed?
BRIAN MOYNIHAN: The market is a – will punish folks if we do not have an impartial Fed.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Sure.
BRIAN MOYNIHAN: And everyone is aware of that.
(Finish VT)
MARGARET BRENNAN: CBS Information and The Free Press have secured a partnership with Financial institution of America “For Issues That Matter,” a sequence of city halls and debates designed to revive dialog on subjects that matter probably the most.
We might be again in a single minute with extra of our interview.
(ANNOUNCEMENTS)
MARGARET BRENNAN: And we’re again with extra of our interview with the chairman and CEO of Financial institution of America, Brian Moynihan.
(Start VT)
MARGARET BRENNAN: So, again in August, once we spoke, you talked about these allegations of banks enjoying politics and discriminating in opposition to conservatives.
BRIAN MOYNIHAN: Sure.
MARGARET BRENNAN: You pushed again fairly onerous in that second.
BRIAN MOYNIHAN: Sure.
MARGARET BRENNAN: However, earlier this month, the Trump administration launched preliminary findings about banks, together with Financial institution of America. It is a six-page report.
There’s reference to your environmental and sustainability-related choices that have been made in the course of the Biden administration. Do you are feeling you must undo these? Have you ever undone them?
BRIAN MOYNIHAN: Numerous them have been – have been undone or made extra exact as a result of the interpretation wasn’t really what went on.
So, should you learn the Site, you may say, oh, they’re doing this. And the truth was, that is not what was going – by no means was meant. And so we do not debank anyone for spiritual or political causes. We made the insurance policies clearer, so folks might see it. We welcome all of the enter from the banking regulators and others.
And we’ll – we’ll have a look at anyone who feels we – consider me, they – folks have thought they have been closed for causes that they could not perceive. We have checked out that most likely, you understand, as a result of prospects can come to our firm and say, you closed my account. Why? And we will inform them.
However I believe persons are forgetting, the explanation why a whole lot of this went on was reputational threat was an evaluation course of that went on, and it was actual. They usually – and, consider me, you understand, folks would learn the paper and stated, you understand, Jane Smith, John Smith, you are doing enterprise with them. They did one thing improper. You should be – fail as an organization, and, subsequently, we will write you up.
MARGARET BRENNAN: That was in the course of the Biden administration, that form of social strain, you are saying?
BRIAN MOYNIHAN: Even 20 years in the past.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Twenty years in the past. OK.
BRIAN MOYNIHAN: It has been occurring for a very long time. It simply stored increase.
And the second factor is that – that, for AML and KYC points, we needed to shut accounts. And so the extent of a transaction was set in 1972 at $10,000. And you’ve got two issues. If it goes above that, you must report on it and if it goes a number of ones near that. That hasn’t been modified since 1972.
That quantity could be $80,000 in the present day. So what we thought was materials then…
MARGARET BRENNAN: When it comes to, like, suspicious transactions.
BRIAN MOYNIHAN: Sure, and so there’s a whole lot of overwork right here that we’re making an attempt to – in the event that they get these rules proper, that might be very useful.
So there’s kind of the ESG facet of it. These issues, I believe a whole lot of us fastened to ensure they’re primarily based on threat and actual details and stuff, as a result of this was occurring far earlier than the brand new administration got here in, frankly, in states and different locations. There’s the query of getting the AML, KYC letter, after which the status threat, which, to the credit score of the present federal bankers, they’ve taken that off the desk.
MARGARET BRENNAN: As a result of there actually aren’t that many factors of settlement nowadays between Wall Road and the White Home.
BRIAN MOYNIHAN: Sure.
MARGARET BRENNAN: However this difficulty, the president himself actually dug into. And he stated that Financial institution of America declined to open new accounts for him and his household after his first time period in workplace. Do you assume you’ve got patched issues up? I imply, is – are you aware what he is speaking about?
BRIAN MOYNIHAN: We – I would not speak about consumer relationships with anyone, however we banked everyone.
MARGARET BRENNAN: He stated it on tv about you.
BRIAN MOYNIHAN: I do know that. I do know that. Folks – if I had a nickel for every part everyone stated about me on tv, it – I’d be wealthy. So, ultimately of day, we financial institution everyone. We’ve 125,000 spiritual organizations. We’ve 70 million customers.
We’ve tens of 1000’s – we’re the largest small enterprise lender within the nation, interval, finish, cease. You recognize, and so, you understand, the concept that we toss folks out, it is – it is simply not true. So I will not get into a person buyer and their – and their factors of view.
However, look, a few of these insurance policies, we have been pushed to locations that we have been capable of convey again to the middle, and America ought to be ok with that.
MARGARET BRENNAN: And also you assume the – issues are copacetic now?
BRIAN MOYNIHAN: Sure.
MARGARET BRENNAN: You will have put this behind you with the White Home?
BRIAN MOYNIHAN: Sure.
(Finish VT)
MARGARET BRENNAN: Our full interview is out there on our YouTube channel, our Site, and our podcast.
And we might be proper again with much more Face the Nation. Stick with us.
(ANNOUNCEMENTS)
MARGARET BRENNAN: For a sit up for the highest nationwide safety threats in 2026, we’re joined now by two CBS contributors.
Chris Krebs was director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Safety Company in the course of the first Trump administration, and Sam Vinograd, a former counterterrorism official on the Division of Homeland Safety in the course of the Biden administration.
It is good to have you ever each right here.
FORMER DIRECTOR CHRISTOPHER KREBS: Good to be right here.
MARGARET BRENNAN: We’ve heard a lot prior to now yr about A.I., synthetic intelligence, in just about each sector of the enterprise world and nationwide safety.
You will have stated A.I., it is not simply an app in your cellphone. It isn’t simply a pc chip. It is power. It is knowledge facilities. There are some actually advanced difficult – challenges right here. What are you within the yr forward?
FORMER DIRECTOR CHRISTOPHER KREBS: Effectively, beginning precisely there, simply the range of sectors which are impacted by A.I., it’s an extremely advanced world worth chain.
It is chips. We’ve heard quite a bit in regards to the Nvidia H200 chips after which competing in opposition to Huawei in China. It’s software program.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Attempting to not promote them to China and the talk over…
(CROSSTALK)
FORMER DIRECTOR CHRISTOPHER KREBS: Proper. Proper. And there is a important stress within the nationwide safety area on, ought to we give China chips or ought to we deprive them of chips?
And it appears for now that the facet that wishes to provide China chips after which extract worth and income from it, that staff has gained for now. However, broader than that, there’s software program. There’s infrastructure. There’s knowledge facilities. There’s water. There’s thermal administration. There’s coaching. There’s work drive.
So it isn’t simply in regards to the app that manifests in your cellphone. It is the entirety of the financial system.
MARGARET BRENNAN: As a result of it is reshaping so many sectors of the financial system.
(CROSSTALK)
FORMER DIRECTOR CHRISTOPHER KREBS: It is reshaping the best way just about each enterprise operates.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Sure.
FORMER DIRECTOR CHRISTOPHER KREBS: When you go speak to CEOs, they’re speaking about how they are often an A.I.-first firm. Are they pleased with the outcomes that they are seeing proper now? Completely not. However they know, two years, we will face this equal of a Cambrian explosion of A.I. capabilities throughout the financial system.
SAMANTHA VINOGRAD: And, Margaret, if I can simply add, it is not simply reshaping how companies function. It is also reshaping how governments function.
When you have a look at A.I., nothing is zero sum in nationwide safety. It isn’t a web optimistic or a web adverse. A.I., and I’ve seen this firsthand, is altering the best way that investigations are carried out. It permits regulation enforcement officers to comb via a lot knowledge and to do investigations extra effectively.
It’s permitting the U.S. army to make use of sure autonomous automobiles and weapons that may cut back civilian threat, if managed appropriately, and extra successfully have interaction in conflict preventing. It is altering the best way the intelligence neighborhood is ready to each acquire and evaluate knowledge.
On the identical time, it’s opening up an entire new host of threats. A.I. would not simply degree the enjoying area for sure actors. It really brings new gamers onto the pitch, as a result of people, non-state actors have entry to comparatively low-cost know-how that makes completely different sorts of threats extra credible and simpler.
MARGARET BRENNAN: You stated one thing that was a little bit scary to me. You stated, as know-how will get extra superior, the power to anonymously harm folks exponentially will increase.
What does that imply on the homeland safety entrance?
SAMANTHA VINOGRAD: A.I. provides actors, not simply within the homeland, however actually all world wide, to very credibly fake to be anyone else. It’s upending the entire notion of what identification is in in the present day’s day and age.
A.I. is permitting unhealthy actors to very authentically and credibly fake to be another person, each with their voices, with their faces, after which to ship threats in a manner that truly resonates. So it is impersonating somebody, however then additionally utilizing A.I. to determine the place vulnerabilities are in a system and what a target market or a goal entity goes to answer.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So I would like each of you to weigh in on this, however, Chris, we heard simply final month the primary documented case of a totally automated cyberattack by a international authorities. This was the A.I. chatbot Claude.
They stated the suspected Chinese language hackers had used their A.I. to breach about 30 world organizations, simply to do it actually shortly and effectively, as I perceive it. So whose job is it to guard in opposition to it? Is it the federal government’s job or is it a personal company to determine learn how to defend in opposition to all these dangers you laid out?
FORMER DIRECTOR CHRISTOPHER KREBS: Effectively, I believe there are two issues in play proper now.
One is, what is the regulatory surroundings seem like that requires the secure use of those platforms? And now we have seen a pullback on the regulatory entrance from this administration. The Biden administration had an A.I. government order that required sure notifications and security testings. That is been pulled again.
As a substitute, we’re on this innovation-first mannequin. And so…
MARGARET BRENNAN: That was mild contact. That is even – that is no contact, you are saying.
FORMER DIRECTOR CHRISTOPHER KREBS: That is – sure, I – once more, that is actually placing the total weight of the federal government behind the U.S. know-how business profitable the worldwide A.I. race. That’s the prime precedence.
And so what’s occurring within the meantime is, you’d usually say, OK, the states are going to manage, however now you could have the White Home weighing in saying states can not regulate within the A.I. area. And, once more, CEOs need some steerage. They need governance. So that they should do it themselves.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So, switching gears for a second right here, we’re 2026, an enormous variety of mass gatherings in america. You’ve got FIFA, World Cup, the Tremendous Bowl, the nation’s 250th anniversary. Are you involved about homeland safety within the new yr?
SAMANTHA VINOGRAD: There are all the time a whole lot of threats dealing with the homeland. What’s materially completely different within the coming yr, in 2026, is that there are structural points that I worry make us extra weak to profitable assault.
That features the truth that america most likely for the primary time in our historical past is not seen globally because the chief and poster baby for rules-based worldwide order. Different actors really feel like they do not should comply with the foundations if we’re not going to. That would introduce new threats.
On the identical time, there was a degradation within the programs of presidency that do determine threats after which work to forestall them, not simply in the present day, however over the medium and long term.
MARGARET BRENNAN: We’ll take a fast break right here, come again on the opposite facet of it. Extra – extra issues to fret about within the new yr in only a minute.
(LAUGHTER)
(CROSSTALK)
MARGARET BRENNAN: Stick with us.
(ANNOUNCEMENTS)
MARGARET BRENNAN: Developing in our subsequent half-hour, extra of our dialog on nationwide safety, plus our annual CBS Information correspondents roundtable.
Stick with us.
(ANNOUNCEMENTS)
MARGARET BRENNAN: And we’re again with Samantha Vinograd and Chris Krebs. Each are CBS contributors.
Sam, you labored in Homeland Safety underneath the Biden administration. And we heard at the moment that the administration was simply hamstrung until Congress did one thing on the immigration entrance. This administration took a totally completely different method. I imply let’s simply have a look at what they did this yr. Mass deportation marketing campaign. Vital change to authorized immigration. Border crossings are actually on the lowest degree in a long time. Secured main funding for ICE and CBP. Half 1,000,000 arrests performed. They repealed protected standing for a lot of immigrants. And now there is a journey ban or restrictions on about 39 nations complete.
What’s the longer-term influence of those form of actually huge adjustments?
SAMANTHA VINOGRAD: Effectively, to be clear, the Biden administration did take motion in July of 2024 to attempt to curtail illegal immigration. December 2023 we noticed virtually 250,000 people unlawfully crossing our border. By January of 2025, that was down about 85 % earlier than Biden took workplace – left workplace on account of his government order.
We’re seeing, and certain will proceed to see, a systemic dismemberment of lawful immigration pathways to america. And the administration has shared a wide range of causes for that. Failure for refugees, for instance, to assimilate into america. Safety issues and different issues.
However should you simply have a look at the numbers, immigrants in the present day account for over 15 % of the U.S. labor drive. Thousands and thousands of individuals on this nation are immigrants. And if we have a look at the financial influence of eradicating that expertise, eradicating these folks from this nation, there will definitely be an financial influence, in addition to, I do consider, a technological and progressive influence as we have a look at the people coming right here on scholar visas, on H-1B visas, and extra. They’re direct contributors to innovation on this nation. And I worry that we threat dropping out on that and getting the steadiness improper between safety, financial progress, and innovation.
MARGARET BRENNAN: However on that time, Chris, the administration says you may financially kind of prepare for extra H-1B visas. These are the extremely expert staff. Are we dropping a aggressive edge due to the restrictions?
CHRIS KREBS: I believe this has been in play for a number of years, actually. Going again even a number of administrations. What the Chinese language, as an illustration, have discovered is that in the event that they put their very own capital into their Silicon Valley equal, they will retain excessive Chinese language expertise that has usually gone to the U.S. Gone to college within the U.S. after which stayed right here as a result of our enterprise capital area is booming. The Chinese language have figured it out.
And what we’re seeing now, again to the dangers piece, is that the Chinese language are utilizing their monetary assets to drag extremely superior, extremely functionality engineers out of the U.S. and European workforce, bringing them again, after which copy a lot of the know-how that is giving us the sting.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So, there’s a connection right here, again to immigration coverage adjustments, too?
CHRIS KREBS: Completely.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Sam, I wish to ask you about one other huge occasion that is coming, the midterm races. We’ve seen a whole lot of political violence or concern about political violence in months previous. The assassination of Charlie Kirk, the homicide of a Minnesota lawmaker and her husband. We noticed Governor Shapiro’s Pennsylvania residence burnt. These are simply a number of the high-profile issues. There’s extra that is occurred. What do you anticipate? Ought to we be terrified of a political surroundings and elections?
SAMANTHA VINOGRAD: Politically motivated violence might be the menace that retains me up probably the most at night time, significantly as we have a look at the yr forward. Undoubtedly, america is seen as one of many largest sources of battle and houses of battle on the earth in the present day, which is a seismic change if you consider it.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Sure.
SAMANTHA VINOGRAD: Heading into the midterms and, after all, looking forward to the presidential, now we have already seen terrorism changing into a software of alternative within the homeland to settle each private grievances and political vendettas. The explanations for which are, after all, enhanced rhetoric, but in addition, frankly, enhanced entry to like-minded people, enhanced entry to ways and methods on-line. The flexibility to search out out the place your goal goes to be and when, and extra. The rhetoric must be calmed down.
However there additionally must be the appropriate investments in crucial infrastructure safety, and in, appropriately, figuring out international affect to attempt to stoke up political violence and different threats.
MARGARET BRENNAN: And there have been precise cutbacks within the stuff you simply laid out as needed instruments by way of the FBI, their process drive on international affect operations.
Chris, the company you used to work for, CISA, it is seen, not simply finances cuts, however simply open jobs right here.
CHRIS KREBS: Proper.
MARGARET BRENNAN: What’s going on? Why not construct up safety going into an surroundings like this?
CHRIS KREBS: It is simply not a precedence proper now for this administration. I believe they consider that there have been missteps prior to now on with the Biden administration, and even the primary Trump administration did on figuring out, encountering data operations, significantly as they relate to elections.
However we all know that these threats are actual. We all know these dangers are actual. And we additionally know that they are multiplying. Sam talked earlier in regards to the exponential explosion of capabilities within the arms of unhealthy actors and the explosion of unhealthy actors themselves due to instruments like A.I.
After I take into consideration the ’26 midterms, we’re going to be two to a few generations past what the present A.I. mannequin capabilities are. So, they’re solely going to be extra subtle, extra superior, extra capabilities within the arms of these international and home that wish to disrupt our means to decide on who represents us in Congress.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Thanks very a lot, each, for sharing your experience with us.
CHRIS KREBS: Thanks.
SAMANTHA VINOGRAD: Thanks.
MARGARET BRENNAN: We’ll be proper again.
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MARGARET BRENNAN: What’s forward in 2026? It is time to test in with a few of our exhausted Washington beat reporters, together with chief Washington correspondent Main Garrett, who additionally hosts “The Takeout,” on our 24/7 digital community, chief Washington analyst Robert Costa, justice correspondent Scott MacFarlane, chief authorized correspondent Jan Crawford, and senior White Home reporter Jennifer Jacobs.
It is nice to have you ever all right here.
MAJOR GARRETT: Exhausted but in addition energized. You recognize, we have to maintain the power going.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Effectively, maintain the espresso coming, Main. We’ll want it for the yr forward.
However we seemed on the polling, Costa. I wish to get your tackle this. As a result of a majority of People disapprove of the president’s signature coverage difficulty, immigration. It got here in at 54 %. His approval of his dealing with of the financial system, which is his different signature difficulty he was elected on, is now at 37 % in keeping with our newest CBS ballot.
Is the president annoyed with the notion of his first yr?
ROBERT COSTA: Margaret, the Democrats are these numbers, and that is why they’re making their complete argument to the nation of affordability. They see actual vulnerability for this administration on the financial system. However contained in the White Home, I’d say the phrase will not be affordability, it is self-confidence.
This president, behind the scenes, is telling his advisers to remain regular, to not have alarm. There’s frustration about press protection. There’s frustration about how Republicans in Congress appear to be so frightened forward of the midterm. Some headed for the exits with retirement.
The president, time and again in non-public conversations along with his prime officers, is insistent that the commerce coverage is working. He is not going to drag off – pull again on tariffs in any respect. He believes he can have a brand new begin with a brand new Fed chairman coming in in 2026. And so, it is President Trump on the middle, driving this dialog and staving off any concern.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Jennifer, what do your sources inform you about how the president’s going to sort out particularly a few of these financial points?
JENNIFER JACOBS: Housing prices are actually consuming into wages. And the president has been proven polling that confirmed this can be a actually scorching difficulty for each Democratic voters and Republican voters alike. The president has a couple of dozen proposals earlier than him which have all types of concepts of learn how to decrease mortgage prices, lower rental prices. They’re eager about creating a brand new financial savings account that will be much like the 529 faculty financial savings account, however this is able to be for first-time dwelling consumers. They’re speaking about federal lands, opening up federal lands for brand spanking new housing development. He has scheduled conferences down in Florida whereas he is there for Christmas break to speak to his advisers about this. I am informed that the president needs the housing value difficulty to be the very first huge coverage determination that he launches within the new yr, someday January or February.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Focusing in on that largest contributor to inflation, shelter prices.
JENNIFER JACOBS: Precisely.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Jan, tariffs are on the very coronary heart of the president’s agenda. And we all know the court docket is predicted to determine quickly on the legality on a sure set of the president’s tariffs that he justified by citing fentanyl. Ought to the White Gouse be so assured that they’ll win?
JAN CRAWFORD: I definitely did not get that impression from the argument. I imply the chief justice, Justice Gorsuch, strong conservatives have been asking questions, actually skeptical of the administration’s arguments on tariffs. It was form of a story of two arguments, although, as a result of as that case form of progressed, then they began asking questions skeptical of the opposite facet.
So, I imply, I believe that anybody that comes out and like confidently predicts how the court docket’s going to rule on this case is simply wishful considering. I imply it could possibly be very shut. I might see a 5-4 ruling, Trump dropping. I might see a 6-3 determination, maybe, Trump wins.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Scott, on the authorized entrance, the president has gone after some perceived enemies in issues like government orders, introduced, you understand, stripping away of safety clearances, even of people that do not even presently have one, however he is made his level. However his try to prosecute opponents hasn’t been fairly as easy. What are you seeing?
SCOTT MACFARLANE: He campaigned a yr in the past arguing he’d finish the weaponization of the Division of Justice in opposition to political enemies. And what did we see in 2025? An terrible lot of investigations and legal instances in opposition to his political critics. We noticed these flailing makes an attempt to cost James Comey and Letitia James, the New York lawyer basic. These instances have been dismissed. And twice prior to now few weeks grand juries have stated no to efforts to attempt to resuscitate the case in opposition to Letitia James. Grand juries not often say no to prosecutors. That was a profound factor.
And I believe extra essentially, Margaret, it is not simply the instances or the investigations or the calls. It is the adjustments within the Division of Justice. They’ve purged out prosecutors who dealt with instances Trump would not like, bringing in doubtlessly new voices that critics would say are poised to weaponize in opposition to critics.
MAJOR GARRETT: And a tacit administration from the White Home chief of employees that there’s a retribution marketing campaign within the article written by “Self-importance Truthful” Chris Whipple. Susie Wiles stated, sure, she was going to attempt to put a time restrict on that, unsuccessfully, however acknowledging what Scott simply stated is an actual factor.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Effectively, on this query, although, of limits to authority, Main, we have seen some limits to congressional energy, or at the least willingness to exert its authority. Do you assume it should change this yr?
MAJOR GARRETT: The political contours of the Congress going into 2026 are going to essentially stream via how anxious are Republicans about their very own means to acquire re-election. And have they got to create some noticeable distinction between themselves and the president and the Trump administration Via all 2025 the reply to that was, no, we’re good, we’re staying in with Trump. But when the ambiance, which presently exists, resulting in some retirements, continues to worsen, you will notice extra congressional pushback. Does it manifold in a manner that stops Trump and the administration chilly? No, nevertheless it complicates issues. And if anybody leaves the cupboard, the thought of who the nominee is and what their Senate affirmation prospects are might be filtered via this.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Costa, on that time, do you see departures from the cupboard occurring?
ROBERT COSTA: It is very potential, although President Trump will not be one to simply make a transfer instantly as a result of there is a flurry of stories, adverse information, about considered one of his cupboard members. We see he usually takes his time to make a number of the choices, and he would not wish to be pressured to eliminate anyone.
However there are such a lot of folks within the so-called MAGA universe who needs these slots. And they can get entry to this president. Numerous these cupboard officers I’ve spoken to privately, and their prime aides, say they’ll attempt to make it via the midterm elections after which depart. But when the president is feeling strain to make some form of important change forward of the midterms, I would not rule something out primarily based on my reporting.
JENNIFER JACOBS: I can inform you, Margaret, this isn’t cupboard members, however this – within the West Wing, that fundamental pack of interior circle advisers goes to remain intact. And that features Susie Wiles and Stephen Miller and Karoline Leavitt, on the best way down, that core group of individuals. They don’t seem to be going anyplace. I believe we’ll see some senior advisers within the West Wing depart. Simply take into account that there are some advisers which have younger kids. So, they could be leaving for household causes.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Jan, there’s a notion that the Supreme Court docket has proven restricted resistance to the president’s efforts to broaden the powers of the manager. Do you assume that is honest? And do you assume on that huge case that is coming with birthright citizenship, that they are going to discover in his favor?
JAN CRAWFORD: I believe there’s the notion due to the best way the court docket has dealt with a few of these emergency requests from the Trump administration to step in to those instances and put decrease court docket rulings on maintain whereas the litigation performs out. So, that will let the insurance policies take impact. And the Trump administration has had super success, I imply nicely over 20 such requests have been granted to let a few of these insurance policies go into impact, whether or not it is on deportations, on immigration stops, mass firings. However these are short-term, interim orders. And the administration has been very strategic and solely interesting these adversarial rulings from courts under that it thinks it could actually win. Once more, these are simply interim orders. As soon as we do get to the deserves, I do not assume Trump’s going to win all these instances. And I definitely do not assume he’ll win the birthright citizenship case.
MARGARET BRENNAN: You do not?
JAN CRAWFORD: No, completely not. He might not win the tariff’s case. Proper now it is wanting nice for Trump within the Supreme Court docket, however it might look very completely different come June when now we have form of gotten via a few of these huge, landmark rulings.
MAJOR GARRETT: And, Jan’s beat goes to be on the middle of the 2026 politics, tariffs, Voting Rights Act, and birthright citizenship. All may have huge, political penalties.
JAN CRAWFORD: Oh, and so many social difficulty instances as nicely. Transgender participation in lady’s sports activities. We have two enormous gun rights instances. This can be a extremely consequential time period for the court docket.
And, you understand, it should be in battle, I believe, with President Trump by the tip of the time period as a result of he is not going to love all these rulings.
MARGARET BRENNAN: And we’ll be proper again with extra from our panel.
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MARGARET BRENNAN: And we’re again with our panel.
Predictions for 2026.
Robert Costa.
ROBERT COSTA: My motto as a reporter is assume nothing. And we’re very early within the 2028 presidential cycle and dialogue. Governor Newsom of California, Governor Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Governor Pritzker of Illinois, the listing goes on. However my prediction is, in 2026, we will see some names we’re not discussing in any respect begin to emerge as potential contenders for the Democrats in 2028. Some celebrities would possibly come into the combination. And one title I’d enterprise, primarily based on some current reporting, Stephen A. Smith, the sports activities persona, is speaking to folks within the Democratic Social gathering about whether or not he has a future. Whether or not he runs or not, TBD. However one thing to look at, celeb politics within the age of Trump on either side.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Jan Crawford.
JAN CRAWFORD: I’ll revisit a prediction I made final yr once I form of confidently stated that Justice Alito was most likely going to retire and provides President Trump his fourth nomination to the Supreme Court docket. Sources near Justice Alito say he has not made up his thoughts. He, in some ways, is simply too younger to retire. He is 75 years outdated. However then there’s the priority that he is too outdated not too, as a result of if he cares about his legacy, and he’s that mental chief of the conservative wing, if he cares about his legacy with a Republican within the White Home or a Republican- managed Senate, this yr could be one of the best time for him to retire.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Scott.
SCOTT MACFARLANE: I believe People will start or more and more really feel the results of DOGE. There’s an terrible lot of folks that misplaced their jobs within the final 12 months. Numerous long-time profession civil servants who have been good at delivering merchandise for the Americans. In my world, the Division of Justice, there have been 5,000 folks. That may’t assist however decelerate prosecutions, investigations, and doing proper by American folks. And that is true throughout the board in Washington.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Jennifer.
JENNIFER JACOBS: Fraud investigations. I believe you are going to see this administration actually dig in deeper to attempt to discover proof that proves fraud in numerous authorities applications. Folks dishonest the system, making an attempt to fleece taxpayers.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Main.
MAJOR GARRETT: So, I’ll be the glue for this course of as a result of now we have predictions and underreported.
MARGARET BRENNAN: We get –
MAJOR GARRETT: Mine merge collectively.
So, prediction is, knowledge facilities and A.I. growth might be an underappreciated however potent political difficulty in 2026. Eight government ordered signed by President Trump associated to synthetic intelligence simply behind tariffs and immigration. He has made himself the A.I. president. But, let me provide you with some names of state, Indiana, Arizona, Missouri, Texas, multi functional manner or one other, on the Republican facet, are up in arms about both A.I. regulation, lack thereof, or knowledge facilities and their implications. Sixty % in our most up-to-date ballot, practically 60 % of People consider synthetic intelligence won’t improve jobs however take jobs away. And 44 % in our most up-to-date ballot need extra regulation of A.I. than much less. This can be a wedge difficulty that Democrats have recognized as a result of it isn’t cohered on the MAGA facet. The president has already put down his chips on it.
MARGARET BRENNAN: OK. Underreported . What did you wish to report that you simply could not?
JENNIFER JACOBS: I really like, to Scott’s level, I’ll construct on it Elon Musk and the DOGE staff.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Sure.
JENNIFER JACOBS: They promised to chop the federal workforce. We’re on the finish of the yr. So, what’s the tally for the yr? It’s 271,000 staff. That is in keeping with the most recent jobs report that confirmed what number of staff the federal authorities shed. So, simply to place that into perspective, that is roughly the inhabitants of Madison, Wisconsin. So, think about if each single particular person in Madison, Wisconsin, have been to lose their job, both ousted or they depart their job.
So, the underside line on DOGE is that they didn’t reach reducing general authorities spending, however they did fulfill their mission to trim the federal headcount by roughly about 10 %. And I believe it should be vital to trace these staff and to see the place they find yourself, what their fates are, as a result of they aren’t being scooped up within the non-public sector, at the least not but.
SCOTT MACFARLANE: There was some consideration, however not the requisite consideration to the thermonuclear use of pardons in 2025. Blanket pardons, household pardons, preemptive pardons. Is the following particular person going to convey it again to what we have loved over the previous couple centuries, the normal controversies round pardons?
MARGARET BRENNAN: Jan, underneath reported?
JAN CRAWFORD: You recognize, there’s a narrative that the Supreme Court docket is corrupt. I imply we noticed that emerge within the wake of the Dobbs determination that overturned Roe versus Wade. And now we see it, that they are within the tank for Trump. Not solely is that narrative overreported, it’s patently false, and it’s harmful for the establishment and the general public’s religion and confidence within the rule of regulation. This can be a conservative Supreme Court docket. It has been a conservative Supreme Court docket for 20 years. Folks can disagree and do disagree with their opinions, nevertheless it’s profoundly improper to name it – or say corruption the place there, actually, is none.
What’s underreported is any understanding of what this court docket’s been doing for the previous 20 years. Its views of its position, vis-a-vis the opposite branches. The way it sees the regulation. The way it’s making an attempt, in its focus, to revive some form of accountability and our constitutional construction.
Once more, this can be a court docket that’s purposeful. It’s constant. They’re 9 justices. They do not essentially see the Structure the identical manner by any means or learn how to interpret federal regulation. There is a battle over the right approach to interpret the Structure. However that’s accurately. And I believe as we method our 250th anniversary of this nation, it is vital to consider the court docket and their rule of regulation because the justices are doing, particularly if we hope to maintain democracy intact.
MARGARET BRENNAN: That is a giant assertion, Jan, if we hope to maintain democracy intact. My goodness.
JAN CRAWFORD: If we misplaced – if the general public loses confidence within the rule of regulation, I do not know what meaning for democracy.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Sure. Sure.
JAN CRAWFORD: And that is why I believe a number of the rhetoric about corruption is so, so profoundly irresponsible.
SCOTT MACFARLANE: And it causes threats.
JAN CRAWFORD: Oh, sure. Which, once more, I imply the justices are underneath super, and federal judges as nicely.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Effectively, it is all establishments, together with for (ph) the state.
Bob Costa, your underreported?
ROBERT COSTA: Simply briefly. One of the putting tales of the yr politically, Zohran Mamdani. Younger –
MARGARET BRENNAN: He is underreported?
ROBERT COSTA: No, no. Let me – let me make my level. One of the putting tales was Mamdani’s victory. The large query lots of people have is, nicely, how does this occur? How does this younger, Democratic socialist win in New York Metropolis? For my part, probably the most underreported story of the yr is how somebody laid the muse for Zohran Mamdani. Somebody close to 50 years older, Senator Bernie Sanders, impartial, Democratic socialist of Vermont, had what’s known as a “Combat Oligarchy Tour” earlier in 2025, drawing 1000’s of individuals in crimson states and blue states. Sanders enabled Mamdani, and others like him, to begin to achieve traction for Democratic socialism within the Democratic assemble on this nation in 2025.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Attention-grabbing, certainly.
Due to all of you.
MAJOR GARRETT: Thanks.
MARGARET BRENNAN: And good luck to us all in 2026.
We’ll be proper again.
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MARGARET BRENNAN: Thanks for watching. We wish to want all our viewer a really Glad New 12 months. For “FACE THE NATION,” I am Margaret Brennan. We’ll see you in 2026.
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