Overlook all of the recession chatter. Goldman Sachs (GS) CEO David Solomon feels the financial backdrop for 2026 appears to be like robust.
In a current CNBC interview, the veteran banker feels the macro setup is “fairly good,” pointing to strong fiscal assist, unimaginable AI-driven capital funding, and a extra conducive enterprise atmosphere.
Furthermore, Solomon mentioned strategic exercise is choosing up at a formidable tempo, with companies imagining huge offers once more. IPO discussions are heating up properly, whereas some choices, he suggests, could possibly be unprecedented in dimension.
Clearly, that’s an enormous shift in tone from the damaging chatter we’ve seen in regards to the economic system recently.
Based on Moynihan, BofA’s information confirmed that January exercise ran almost 5% above final yr, as spending continues to climb throughout numerous earnings brackets.
Taken collectively, the message from Wall Road’s prime ground is that regardless of the uneven progress, it’s nonetheless very a lot alive.
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon says the macro setup for 2026 is “fairly good,” citing fiscal stimulus and AI funding.Picture by Nicolò Campo on Getty Photographs ·Picture by Nicolò Campo on Getty Photographs
The large banks are coming off a power-packed earnings stretch.
Trade bellwethers equivalent to Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and friends have, for essentially the most half, proven that they proceed to maintain charges ticking up, shield margins, and effectively handle credit score threat regardless of a testy economic system.
That’s indicative of wholesome pipelines and consumer exercise which have held up so much higher than the headlines at the moment counsel.
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Goldman’s newest quarterly report is an ideal instance.
The financial institution posted a snug beat on earnings energy, even with a selected drag linked to its exit from the Apple Card enterprise.
Put collectively, the core machine appeared stable, and a short lived accounting swing made the top-line determine look so much softer than it actually was.
EPS:$14.01 versus $11.65 anticipated (beat); up from $11.95 a yr in the past.
Income:$13.5 billion vs $13.9 billion anticipated (miss); down versus $13.9 billion final yr.
Apple Card drag: Platform Options income swung to -$1.68 billion because of a $2.26 billion markdown tied to the pending Apple Card portfolio sale.
Credit score prices: Provision was a +$2.12 billion profit (reserve launch), together with a $2.48 billion reserve discount tied to the Apple Card switch.
Engines nonetheless operating: World Banking & Markets income $10.4 billion (+22% year-over-year); funding banking charges $2.58 billion (+25% year-over-year); equities $4.31 billion (+25% year-over-year), whereas FICC jumped +12% yr over yr regardless of a quarter-over-quarter dip. Supply: Searching for Alpha
Solomon believes that the U.S. economic system has much more elevate than the “doom” crowd needs to confess at this level, Solomon informed CNBC.
He backs all of it up with precise progress expectations.
Solomon factors to Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius, who tasks a formidable 2.9% actual progress together with 5% nominal progress, including that we may doubtlessly see higher than that.
Furthermore, he connects his macro energy argument to the conduct in capital markets.
Solomon feels we’ve moved into an atmosphere the place companies can as soon as once more freely discover strategic strikes, reopening that pesky IPO window.
He explicitly states that he expects “extra IPOs this yr” and even “some very, very giant IPOs unprecedented in dimension.”
The smaller IPOs, although, are nonetheless dealing with appreciable headwinds as personal capital stays considerable and presents founders a cleaner exit.
The optimism comes with a warning label.
He has “actual concern” about deficits, arguing that the bond market has been “benign,” even with the Fed cuts totaling 1%.
Additionally, if progress doesn’t rise and stay elevated with enhancements in deficits, issues may get uneven.
The large banks are feeling much more assured about deal-making of late.
Their respective pipelines are constructing, with sponsors in search of exits, and company CEOs changing into rather more prepared to drag the set off.
CEO Solomon put it bluntly at a UBS monetary companies convention in Florida, Reuters reported.
JPMorgan’s Troy Rohrbaugh, co-CEO of the Industrial & Funding Financial institution, struck an identical tone on the convention.
Goldman Sachs topped the checklist in international mergers and acquisitions, advising on an eye-watering $1.48 trillion price of transactions, in accordance with Reuters, whereas pulling in $4.6 billion in charges.
In 2025, banks noticed one other sizzling yr on the funding aspect, with Morgan Stanley saying that international merger and acquisitions quantity jumped to just about 40% in 2025, backed by a document 60 offers valued over $10 billion.
After which there’s the fiery IPO market.
U.S. IPO proceeds surged to a whopping $44 billion in 2025, up considerably from $29.6 billion in 2024 and simply $19.5 billion in 2023, per Renaissance Capital.
Backing that up, PwC mentioned that so-called “conventional IPOs” raised a large $33.6 billion in 2025, with a backlog of offers pushing into this yr.
Thus far, evidently 2026 could possibly be one other big yr for IPOs.
Goldman Sachs mentioned U.S. IPO proceeds may doubtlessly quadruple to $160 billion (starting from $80 billion to $200 billion), per reporting from Reuters, with the IPO depend doubling to just about 120 choices.
Renaissance Capital, although, tasks a extra normalized trajectory, at 200 to 230 IPOs in 2026, elevating someplace between $40 billion and $60 billion.
SpaceX: A rumored IPO is within the playing cards for June, Reuters reviews. It is doubtlessly valued at north of $1.5 trillion, with over $25.6 billion raised, setting a document.
OpenAI: The groundwork is laid for a deal valuing it at $1 trillion (timing mentioned within the second half of 2026).
Anthropic: IPO prep is ready to start as early as 2026, with the newest spherical implied at an almost $350 billion valuation, Monetary Occasions reported.
Stripe: A young supply factors to a valuation at or above $140 billion, conserving IPO chatter alive within the course of, in accordance with Bloomberg.
Databricks: Contemporary funding pegged the Massive Knowledge participant’s valuation at a whopping $134 billion after a $5 billion increase.
