You understand who has two thumbs and is blissful the primary month of the season is completed? This man. I got here out of the gate remarkably sizzling with stellar showings in Week 1 and Week 2, however the ultimate two weeks introduced us again to a extra even report, significantly with my Locks of the Week.
Am I fearful? Probably not, as there have been some horrendous beats. Water will discover its degree, and we’ll be cashing in on a extra constant foundation very quickly, ideally beginning with Week 5.
Amongst my locks of the week, we go worldwide with a decide within the London recreation on Sunday, the place Dillon Gabriel is about to make his NFL debut for the Cleveland Browns. In the meantime, I’ve picks in two prime-time video games, together with Monday night time’s matchup between the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs and Jacksonville Jaguars.
Groups on the bye in Week 5: Atlanta, Chicago, Inexperienced Bay, Pittsburgh
2025 report
Locks of the Week ATS: 10-10-0
ATS: 28-36-0
ML: 41-22-1
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- Sunday, 9:30 a.m. (NFL Community | Fubo, strive free of charge)
Welcome to the NFL, Dillon Gabriel! As a congratulatory reward for climbing up Cleveland’s depth chart, you get to face the Brian Flores-led Vikings protection! Sheesh. Not solely will Gabriel face one of many hardest defenses within the league, however he may even be the primary quarterback to make his first begin outdoors of the USA.
What does that imply? Who is aware of, but it surely’s one other layer he’ll must navigate. In the meantime, the Vikings are already acclimated after enjoying Week 4 in Dublin, so they will not must journey as a lot as Cleveland. Merely wanting on the defensive matchup, nevertheless, that is daunting for Gabriel. Minnesota has the second-highest stress price within the NFL coming into Week 5 and is tied for the fifth-most sacks within the league. Even with the Browns protection possible giving the Vikings offense suits, I do not assume Gabriel will be capable to maintain this inside the quantity.
Projected rating: Vikings 23, Browns 17
The decide: Vikings -4.5
- Sunday, 4:25 p.m. (Fox | Fubo, strive free of charge)
The Bengals are misplaced offensively. Sure, Jake Browning lining up below heart has dramatically lowered the ceiling of the unit following Joe Burrow’s turf toe damage, however their points transcend that. They commit foolish penalties, cannot block and haven’t any semblance of a constant working recreation.
And that unit is meant to maintain this shut with the Lions, who lead the NFL with 34.3 factors per recreation this season? Aidan Hutchinson ought to have a subject day attacking this offensive line, and the Lions offense ought to proceed to hum in opposition to a protection that simply allowed Bo Nix to gentle them up for 3 whole touchdowns Monday night time.
For the reason that begin of final season, the Lions have lined in 75% of their video games, which is tied with the Chargers for the perfect cowl share within the NFL. I count on that to proceed right here, regardless of the double-digit unfold.
Projected rating: Lions 33, Bengals 17
The decide: Lions -10.5
- Thursday, 8:15 p.m. (Prime Video)
It is a dangerous spot for the Niners, who proceed to cope with a mountain of accidents. Conversely, the Rams are comparatively wholesome coming into Week 5, and appear to be the extra polished workforce. Beneath heart, Matthew Stafford ranks high 5 within the NFL this season in yards per try (8.2), passing yards (1,114), and passing touchdowns (eight). Puka Nacua has been his go-to goal, because the Rams wideout went bonkers over the primary month and at present leads the NFL in receiving yards.
As for the protection, they have been capable of get after the quarterback, tallying 14 sacks, which is tied for the second-most within the league. Certain, Kyle Shanahan has a successful report (10-7) in opposition to Sean McVay of their teaching careers, however the Rams head coach is at present using a three-game win streak in opposition to him. L.A. has additionally been very favorable to bettors when dealing with divisional opponents, proudly owning a 10-3-1 ATS report in opposition to the NFC West over the previous 14 contests.
Projected rating: Rams 28, 49ers 20
The decide: Rams -7.5
- Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox | Fubo, strive free of charge)
The Dolphins offense took a serious hit with Tyreek Hill struggling a devastating knee damage that ends his season. Whereas that lowers their ceiling for the remainder of the season, they need to be wonderful on this matchup in opposition to the Panthers, who’re averaging simply 18.8 factors per recreation by way of the primary month.
The Dolphins protection does not precisely instill essentially the most confidence, however I am unsure Carolina can adequately exploit their deficiencies. Carolina does not possess a lot of a menace when it comes to speeding the passer, both (simply two sacks by way of 4 video games), so Tua Tagovailoa ought to have a comparatively clear pocket to work by way of.
Past the passing assault, I view this as a smash spot for Dolphins working again De’Von Achane, who will face a Panthers run protection surrendering 4.9 yards per carry (fourth-highest within the NFL). Miami instantly wins two in a row.
Projected rating: Dolphins 23, Panthers 20
The decide: Dolphins +1.5
Kansas Metropolis Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars
- Monday, 8:15 p.m. (ABC, ESPN | Fubo, strive free of charge)
The Chiefs lastly appeared like themselves Sunday in dominating the Ravens, however I nonetheless assume this offense will undergo ups and downs. Baltimore’s protection was in shambles heading into that matchup, and Okay.C. will now face a a lot harder unit within the Jaguars, who’ve recorded a league-leading 13 takeaways to this point this season. Jacksonville can also be permitting simply 18.0 factors per recreation, which is top-five within the NFL.
In the meantime, the Jags offense remains to be discovering its method — particularly by way of the air with Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter not precisely lighting it up after 4 weeks — however it may run the ball. Jacksonville is third within the NFL in speeding yards per recreation, which is the place it might exploit a poor Chiefs run protection (127.0 yards per recreation allowed).
The Jaguars’ protection and speeding assault will maintain them round on this recreation, so I will gladly take the sector purpose plus the hook.
Projected rating: Chiefs 24, Jaguars 21
The decide: Jaguars +3.5
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Remainder of the bunch
Raiders at Colts
Projected rating: Colts 28, Raiders 20
The decide: Colts -6.5
Giants at Saints
Projected rating: Saints 23, Giants 20
The decide: Saints -1.5
Cowboys at Jets
Projected rating: Cowboys 30, Jets 23
The decide: Cowboys -2.5
Broncos at Eagles
Projected rating: Eagles 27, Broncos 21
The decide: Eagles -3.5
Texans at Ravens
Projected rating: Texans 24, Ravens 20
The decide: Texans -1.5
Titans at Cardinals
Projected rating: Cardinals 28, Titans 17
The decide: Cardinals -7.5
Buccaneers at Seahawks
Projected rating: Seahawks 24, Buccaneers 23
The decide: Buccaneers +3.5
Commanders at Chargers
Projected rating: Chargers 27, Commanders 23
The decide: Chargers -2.5
Patriots at Payments
Projected rating: Payments 33, Patriots 21
The decide: Payments -8.5
