The Milwaukee Bucks have been backed right into a nook in terms of the inevitable Giannis Antetokounmpo commerce all season. Had they acted sooner, they possible would have obtained a historic haul for his or her two-time MVP. Asset-rich groups just like the Spurs and Rockets might need been final summer time. They’ve since moved on, and that has left the Bucks to sift by way of lesser presents.
Buying and selling Antetokounmpo for, say, Karl-Anthony Cities and Mikal Bridges would do little for Milwaukee’s long-term outlook. Golden State’s draft picks are doubtlessly priceless, however in the end a thriller field. Kel’El Ware is a promising younger massive. You’d anticipate somebody with a clearer path to stardom to be the centerpiece of an Antetokounmpo bundle. However what might the Bucks do? Antetokounmpo is ready for 2027 free company. They’d no leverage. They may commerce him for 50 cents on the greenback or let him go away for nothing.
The Portland Path Blazers have entered the chat.
On Saturday, Marc Stein and Jake Fischer reported that Portland “has additionally expressed its personal curiosity to the Bucks that it want to purchase Antetokounmpo … even because the Blazers realistically perceive that it could be an excessive lengthy shot to persuade Giannis to signal a contract extension that retains him within the Pacific Northwest.”
Rating Giannis Antetokounmpo commerce packages: Who could make finest deadline provide?
Brad Botkin
Now, there are fairly a couple of caveats right here. For this to matter for the Bucks, Portland both wants to have the ability to persuade Antetokounmpo to comply with a long-term extension or be keen to commerce for Antetokounmpo with out these assurances. At this stage, neither appears particularly possible. If both of these circumstances is met, nevertheless, it adjustments every part for the Bucks and the opposite groups attempting to find Antetokounmpo. If the Blazers are actually keen to do that, that is checkmate. They win the Giannis sweepstakes, and the Bucks stroll away with a greater bundle than any of the opposite events identified to have an interest can provide. So let’s get into why Portland is such a crucial variable in these commerce talks, what a deal might appear like, and what obstacles must be cleared with a view to make this occur.
So… why are the Blazers so essential?
More often than not, probably the most priceless factor a staff will get when it trades away a famous person is additional lottery balls. Take into account the Chris Paul commerce in New Orleans. The then-Hornets technically obtained a bundle centered round Eric Gordon and Al Farouq-Aminu… however virtually talking, the commerce netted them Anthony Davis as a result of it made them dangerous sufficient to tank for him within the first place. Houston buying and selling James Harden set the Rockets as much as draft Amen Thompson and Jabari Smith. The Spurs obtained three first-round picks for Dejounte Murray, nevertheless it additionally kickstarted the tank that led to Victor Wembanyama. I might go on and on. It was incidental, however keep in mind, even the Mavericks final yr possible would not have gotten Cooper Flagg with out the Luka Dončić commerce. That wasn’t the plan, however with Dončić, Dallas most likely makes the playoffs and does not have the 1.8% probability it wanted to safe Flagg.
That is problematic for Milwaukee as a result of the Bucks not have their very own picks. Between the Jrue Vacation and Damian Lillard blockbusters in 2020 and 2023, the Bucks owe management over their first-round picks by way of 2030 to different groups. Their 2026 decide technically belongs to Atlanta, however that is not the top of the world. Milwaukee will both have its personal decide or it would swap with New Orleans, whichever decide is decrease. Because the Pelicans and Bucks are each dangerous, the Bucks will land someplace within the lottery both means. Their 2027 decide might be unobtainable. It is tied to a separate commerce with the Hawks, and for New Orleans to present the Bucks management over it once more, they’d both need to make a aspect take care of Atlanta or they must give up management of their very own 2027 decide. That feels unlikely contemplating all the dangerous press they obtained for giving freely their 2026 decide.
However 2028 by way of 2030? These all belong to Portland by way of the Lillard commerce. There are some strings connected to these picks by way of follow-up Portland trades we’ll cowl shortly, however the Blazers broadly have the power to present the Bucks management of their picks again in all three seasons. There had been some assumption that groups would possibly attempt to use Portland as a facilitator in a Giannis commerce for precisely this purpose, but when the Blazers need him themselves, they will soar the road and make one of the best provide fairly simply.
Take a look at it this fashion. One of many hypothetical commerce packages extensively thought to be among the many finest Milwaukee might get for Antetokounmpo could be a group of 4 first-round picks and a first-round swap from Golden State. Warriors’ picks, particularly deep sooner or later, do maintain a good bit of worth. Stephen Curry is about to show 38, in any case. However these picks are a little bit of a thriller field. The Bucks do not know what the Warriors will appear like in 2032, they usually haven’t any management over that. You recognize what the Bucks can management? How dangerous they are. They will basically assure themselves excessive draft picks by stripping their roster of priceless gamers in years wherein they really have management over their very own first-rounders. Buying and selling for Warriors picks, or Warmth picks, or whoever else’s picks, does not include that layer of safety. The Brooklyn Nets simply did this in the summertime of 2024, buying and selling management over plenty of priceless future draft picks from the Suns and Mavericks to the Rockets to regain management of their very own picks in 2025 and 2026.
As soon as-in-a-lifetime pairing: Stephen Curry and Giannis Antetokounmpo could be a match made in basketball heaven
Brad Botkin
That is even a mannequin Portland might undertake as a hedge. Houston had three future Nets picks remaining after they made that commerce. They gave the Nets two of them and stored the third, in 2027, betting that Brooklyn’s tank in 2025 and 2026 would make the Nets worse in 2027 and thus give them a better decide. Portland has greater than sufficient younger expertise and draft capital from different sources (together with its personal) to doubtlessly ship the Bucks, say, management over their 2028 and 2029 picks, together with different belongings for Giannis whereas retaining the 2030 decide. The precise construction of the commerce would after all be topic to negotiation with the Bucks, however total, that is what Portland’s involvement is a best-case state of affairs for Milwaukee. They gave the Blazers their skill to historically rebuild within the Lillard commerce. Now they may use Giannis to get it again.
So what would a commerce appear like?
First issues first: Now we have to handle matching wage. This appears fairly simple. We will assume Jerami Grant and his $32.4 million contract could be within the deal. It could make sense for Scoot Henderson, the No. 2 total decide in 2023, to be within the commerce as effectively. He hasn’t performed this season as a consequence of damage, and if Antetokounmpo obtained to Portland, he’d simply by no means have the ball sufficient to develop correctly. Milwaukee would possibly really be an ideal scenario for him. He’d be surrounded by taking pictures, together with a taking pictures middle in Myles Turner, and he’d have little competitors for touches and pictures. Possibly the Bucks might flip him into the star Portland hoped it was getting when it picked him second.
From there, once more, it is a matter of negotiation. Portland would most likely make possible first-time All-Star Deni Avdija off limits. Other than being their finest participant, he is on a preposterously low-cost contract that may be crucial in constructing a deep staff round Antetokounmpo. There’s nonetheless loads of different fascinating younger expertise right here for Milwaukee to contemplate. The Bucks are depleted on the wings. Possibly they’d need 25-year-old reigning All-Protection decide Toumani Camara. Possibly they’d need Donovan Clingan, an imposing defensive middle. Possibly they’d desire a lottery ticket on No. 16 total decide Yang Hansen. Possibly they’d like Shaedon Sharpe‘s scoring punch. Some mixture of those younger gamers, Milwaukee’s personal picks and different draft belongings from the Blazers would make up this bundle.
Nevertheless, we have now to speak about these Milwaukee picks that Portland controls. The 2030 decide is straightforward. Portland simply has swap rights. Due to this fact, the Blazers might merely resign these rights. Simple sufficient. The 2029 decide is a little more difficult. Portland has management over three picks: its personal, Milwaukee’s and Boston’s. Nevertheless, Washington is owed the second-most favorable of these three picks from the Avdija commerce. Once more… no drawback. Portland can simply agree to present Milwaukee one of the best of the three. Milwaukee might tank by itself, and if Portland or Boston occurs to be worse than them organically, that is only a nice shock for the Bucks.
However 2028? Yeah, 2028 is a multitude. There are two main causes as to why.
- Milwaukee traded Portland’s first-round swap rights in 2028 as a part of the Lillard commerce. Nevertheless, it proceeded to commerce secondary swap rights on that very same first-round decide to Washington eventually yr’s deadline within the Kyle Kuzma commerce. This issues as a result of it means Portland can’t merely resign the swap rights it has with Milwaukee, as a result of then Washington would simply get unfettered entry to Milwaukee’s decide.
- Portland at the moment owes Chicago a lottery-protected 2026 first-round decide. It stays lottery protected by way of 2028. Because of this if the Blazers miss the playoffs in 2026 and 2027, however make them in 2028, Portland is not going to have its personal decide to swap with Milwaukee in 2028, as soon as once more setting Washington up for unfettered Bucks swap rights in 2028.
So, can the Blazers clear this mess up? Sure, it could simply be an advanced, multi-step course of. Step one could be settling its enterprise with Chicago to make sure that it has management over its personal 2028 decide. The best means to do that could be to name the Bulls and provide to take away the protections on the decide this season. That will imply Chicago would get Portland’s decide in 2026, it doesn’t matter what, setting Portland as much as hold its decide in 2028. The choice could be to supply the Bulls another draft compensation to get the 2026 decide again. Portland occurs to have an unprotected 2028 decide from the Magic from a draft-night commerce final yr. Would the Bulls fairly have that decide than this protected Blazers decide? In that case, we’re in enterprise.
Now, as soon as Portland has its personal decide again, it must commerce it to Milwaukee. This may give the Bucks each their very own decide and Portland’s, permitting them to maintain the higher one whereas nonetheless honoring Washington’s proper to swap for the lesser one. Primarily, which means if the Blazers and Bucks might efficiently bribe the Bulls, there is a path to Milwaukee getting its 2028 decide again. It could simply imply Portland shedding management over its personal. However hey, they’d be getting Giannis Antetokounmpo. They’d absolutely assume their very own 2028 decide would not be that priceless.
Would Giannis actually re-sign with the Blazers?
Every part we have coated means nothing if the Blazers do not imagine they will safe an extension with Antetokounmpo. If Antetokounmpo tells them straight that he is in, nice, we will get the ball rolling. If Antetokounmpo straight tells them that he completely wouldn’t re-sign underneath any circumstance, Portland’s out. They are not buying and selling the farm solely to look at Giannis stroll into the Lakers‘ open cap house in the summertime of 2027.
The place this will get extra fascinating is that if Antetokounmpo is non-committal in both route. If he says he’d hold an open thoughts however would not comply with an extension immediately. Technically, Antetokounmpo will not be eligible for an extension till October, three years after he signed his final one. This can be a very important element, although, as a result of that window falls within the offseason. If Antetokounmpo is traded earlier than the deadline, he is nonetheless eligible to signal a four-year, roughly $275 million extension earlier than subsequent season begins.
Nevertheless, if this drags into the offseason, he’d lose that eligibility. His max extension goes past the league’s extend-and-trade pointers, which means he’d have to attend six months after the commerce to get probably the most attainable cash. Say he is traded on July 1. Meaning he must wait till Jan. 1, 2027, to signal that extension. Antetokounmpo has handled calf accidents all yr. He won’t wish to threat going into subsequent season with out having that extension signed.
So his motivation could be to get traded by Thursday’s deadline. Nevertheless, Milwaukee’s choice would most likely be to execute a commerce over the summer time. At that time, the pool of attainable suitors for Giannis expands. Possibly a staff just like the Spurs, Rockets or Pistons has a disappointing postseason and reconsiders pursuing him. Possibly a staff’s monetary circumstances change in such a means that allows a pursuit. Orlando checks this field. The Magic cannot significantly pursue Giannis proper now, however as soon as Paolo Banchero‘s rookie extension kicks in over the summer time, it will get a lot simpler for them to supply their former No. 1 total decide for Antetokounmpo. If nothing else, groups just like the Knicks, Warmth, Warriors and Timberwolves would all acquire entry to their 2033 first-round decide simply by advantage of the league yr turning over.
So this is the state of affairs wherein Antetokounmpo would possibly develop into extra amenable to Portland. We get nearer to the deadline. The Knicks, Warmth, Wolves, Warriors and whoever else make underwhelming presents. The Bucks method Antetokounmpo and say, “Look, none of those different groups have made a proposal we’re keen to just accept proper now. If you wish to go to certainly one of them, you are going to have to attend till the summer time. In the event you completely need to get traded proper now, the one provide we’re ready to just accept right now is Portland’s.”
In that state of affairs, Antetokounmpo must determine whether or not getting traded now, and subsequently having extension eligibility within the offseason, could be value going to a vacation spot he won’t have initially thought of certainly one of his preferences. He would possibly nonetheless elect to say “wait till the summer time.” However possibly he decides at that time that Portland is sensible, and even when he could not technically put pen to paper on an extension till October, if he gave the Blazers his phrase that he would re-sign, they’d possible settle for that as sufficient. This may, in essence, be a compromise between Giannis and the Bucks. Milwaukee agrees to commerce him with out scoping out the market extra absolutely over the summer time. Antetokounmpo goes to a staff he won’t have initially chosen with a view to get traded sooner.
In basketball phrases, not less than, the Blazers really would make some sense. Portland, in any case, employs his former championship teammate, Jrue Vacation, in addition to his more moderen Milwaukee teammate, Damian Lillard. If Antetokounmpo remains to be shut with them and keen on a reunion, as some reporting has instructed, Portland can provide it. The Blazers even have extra roster optionality than a lot of the groups within the hunt right here. These Milwaukee picks ought to permit the Blazers to make a compelling provide with out giving up every part they’ve, giving them room to make additional roster changes afterward to swimsuit Antetokounmpo’s wants or wishes.
Say Portland made Avdija off-limits within the Antetokounmpo commerce. If there was a selected teammate Antetokounmpo wished that was some place else within the league, Portland might provide Avdija to get that participant. There would possibly even be permutations of the Giannis commerce itself that permit the Blazers to deliver again Myles Turner as effectively, a great middle match for Giannis, due to his taking pictures, by sending again some extra draft worth and some of their expiring contracts.
The market is a priority right here. There was reporting indicating that Antetokounmpo would like to stay in a warm-weather metropolis. Portland can be about as distant from his offseason residence in Athens as any NBA market. If that is a consideration, effectively, there’s little Portland can do about it. Transferring from the Jap to the Western Convention would clearly make it tougher for him to contend as effectively. With out figuring out what Portland’s roster would in the end appear like, it is exhausting to say the place it could fall within the Western Convention hierarchy. Odds are, it could be behind the defending champion Thunder not less than. Particularly since Lillard nearly definitely will not play this season, and we don’t know what he’ll appear like subsequent yr coming off a torn Achilles.
In different phrases, it is most likely unlikely that Antetokounmpo is keen to decide to a future in Portland. If he isn’t, effectively, I’ve wasted 3,000 phrases value of your time. However Portland registering any diploma of curiosity does matter right here. Even when that does not essentially imply he’ll the Blazers, it does give the Bucks a shred of leverage. It means there may be not less than one staff, nevertheless unlikely it may appear, that’s each able to making the Bucks an applicable provide and doubtlessly keen to take action. That places stress on the extra aggressive, however asset-poorer suitors to step up their very own presents because the deadline approaches.
And hey, it is not not possible that he’d be keen to play in Portland. There’s been some reporting stating his curiosity in Minnesota, a equally small and chilly market. If Vacation and Lillard recruit him, in the event that they persuade him they’ve a path to placing a contender round him, or even when he is simply keen sufficient to get that subsequent contract from a staff moreover Milwaukee to pressure the problem now, there’s a path, nevertheless slender, to Giannis sporting crimson and black this season.
