The New York Mets would possibly find yourself lacking the playoffs. At finest, they’re threatening to take action. After Tuesday’s win, together with some assist from the Pirates, they took again a one-game lead over the Reds for the third Nationwide League wild card spot, however they definitely aren’t out of the woods right here. On a crew stage, lacking the postseason can be a catastrophe of an consequence given the massive offseason they’d, their payroll (over $340 million, second in MLB behind the Dodgers), their NLCS berth final season and, most significantly, the truth that they’d one of the best document in baseball by means of June 12.
As a part of an enormous Mets offseason, one maybe recollects that they signed Juan Soto to a document 15-year, $765 million contract. With that sort of deal and this type of collapse, the senseless, knee-jerk take can be to one way or the other blame Soto. It will be completely silly, however that comes with the territory generally.
The factor is, Soto is having an excellent season and it is one of many higher and extra well-rounded seasons of his profession. There’s solely a lot one man can do in baseball and Soto has operated on a really excessive stage this season.
Soto is hitting .267/.399/.532 (164 OPS+) with 20 doubles, a triple, 42 house runs, 104 RBI, 118 runs, 36 stolen bases and 6.4 WAR. Excluding the partial 2020 season, that is his third-best OPS+ and it is his third-highest WAR. He is set a profession excessive in house runs and is not far off his profession highs in RBI and runs. He leads the Nationwide League in OBP. I am positive some would scoff on the batting common, however the league common is .246 so he is away from that by 21 factors. We’ll get to the stolen bases quickly, however he has extra this season than 2021-24 mixed.
Soto sits third within the NL in Baseball Reference’s WAR and he is fifth in FanGraphs’ model. Shohei Ohtani is all however assured to win the Nationwide League MVP award, however Soto (+2500, per DraftKings) has been top-of-the-line within the league.
You possibly can’t make the “Soto is not a winner” argument both. Soto gained the World Collection with the 2019 Nationals, superior to the NLCS with the 2022 Padres and acquired again to the World Collection with the 2024 Yankees. Even when these folks assume there’s some type of winner’s gene, Soto has proven loads of instances from this perspective that he has it.
And in 2025, he is been one of the vital useful gamers within the league.
Positive, Soto did begin the season gradual and it is potential the strain of the contract had one thing to do with it. It is also potential it was only a dangerous stretch. They occur. He was hitting .229/.367/.430 by means of June 5. The Mets had been profitable then, although, and Soto has been one of many greatest offensive forces in baseball since, slashing .293/.421/.600 with 31 house runs in 93 video games.
Anyway, let’s get again to these stolen bases. Soto leads the Mets. Sure, he is stolen extra bases than Francisco Lindor. The truth is, Soto had by no means beforehand stolen greater than 12 bases in a season and he solely had seven final 12 months, but he trails solely 5 gamers in stolen bases within the majors this season.
He is 36 of 40 in stolen base makes an attempt, too, so his success fee is a wonderful 90% in comparison with a league common of 77.7%. He is elevated his tried steals because the season has progressed and he is gotten extra comfy operating. He was simply 2 for two by the top of April, went 5 for five in Could, 2 for 3 in June after which issues began to choose up. Soto went 6 for six in July, a whopping 11 for 11 in August and thus far is 10 for 13 in September.
“Positively, a number of laborious work was put in for the reason that starting of the season,” Soto stated, by way of MLB.com, of his elevated aggression on the bases this season. “[First-base coach] Antoan [Richardson] has accomplished an unbelievable job. He is been serving to me since Day 1. So I give him all of the credit score. He is the one who put me on this state of affairs and on this spot to do what I’ve accomplished.”
As famous, Soto additionally has set a brand new profession excessive with 42 house runs. Alongside along with his newfound stolen base prowess, he is getting up into rarified air on the listing of power-speed combo guys in MLB historical past.
Soto now has one in every of simply 76 30-30 seasons in MLB historical past, although these have gotten extra widespread with the brand new stolen base guidelines. There have been 4 in 2023, three final season and 4 thus far this 12 months. Nonetheless, Soto has joined Darryl Strawberry, Howard Johnson (3 times), David Wright and Lindor as the one Mets to ever have a 30-30 season.
However Soto would not simply have a mere 30 house runs and 30 steals. There have solely been 16 40-30 seasons — that’s, 40 house runs and 30 steals — up to now from 13 gamers: Henry Aaron, Jose Canseco, Barry Bonds (twice), Ellis Burks, Jeff Bagwell (twice), Larry Walker, Alex Rodriguez, Alfonso Soriano, Ryan Braun, Ronald Acuña Jr. (twice), Christian Yelich, Shohei Ohtani and Soto.
What if we alter the parameters to 40-35? I do know folks do not actually try this as a result of we like good, spherical numbers, however Soto is joined solely by Canseco, Bonds (twice), A-Rod, Soriano, Acuña (twice) and Ohtani there.
This been a outstanding season for Juan Soto. That the Mets’ playoff spot is in jeopardy is an indictment of the remainder of the crew, not him.
