How secure are contract charges?

Chart of the Week:  Van Contract Charges, Nationwide Truckload Index (linehaul value much less gas over $1.20/gal) – USA SONAR: VCRPM1.USA, NTIL12.USA

Lengthy-term (contract) charges for dry van truckload transportation (VCRPM1) have remained primarily flat over the previous yr, growing roughly 1% since July 2024. Brief-term spot charges  (NTIL12) that are naturally extra unstable, have risen about 4% over the identical interval. With all of the speak about capability leaving the market at alarming charges, what does this stability in contract charges imply for 2026?

Within the brief time period, the reply is probably going nothing. Contracts are unlikely to maneuver greater quickly, as there’s at the moment no significant strain on them. Tender rejection charges stay inside acceptable ranges for many shippers, and whereas spot charges are much less dependable, they proceed to supply deep reductions for these keen to pursue them.

Seasonal strain will enhance over the following few months as the vacation delivery season ramps up, however it’s tough to see this translating into sturdy or sustained will increase in contract charges. Demand stays extraordinarily weak, with little proof of enchancment past hypothesis. There may be, nevertheless, one vital caveat.

Final week’s chart article illustrated that capability seems to be exiting the market quicker than demand is declining—one thing with little to no historic precedent over an prolonged interval. The first cause is that this freight recession has lasted longer than any within the fashionable period.

Within the chart above, each fee traces drop sharply by most of 2022. The faster-moving spot fee hit a ground in Might 2023, whereas contract charges discovered a softer backside in 2024.

Though spot charges have been rising since 2023, they continue to be largely unprofitable. Contract charges have been extra resilient, suggesting they’re at the moment close to the bottom sustainable ranges for many carriers.

The most recent American Transportation Analysis Institute (ATRI) report on service prices helps this, exhibiting that common working prices elevated 33% from 2019 to 2024. The contract fee index (VCRPM1) is roughly 16% greater than its 2019 degree—that means the price of working has risen twice as quick because the charges the market has been keen to pay.

Moreover, current regulatory actions concentrating on non-domiciled and undocumented drivers have intensified. U.S. Division of Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy not too long ago said that he plans to crack down on “CDL mills” and the fleets that use them.

This elevated regulatory strain, which started within the spring, has solely not too long ago begun to have an effect on the speed atmosphere. Spot charges spiked unseasonably in early October amid experiences that immigrant drivers have been avoiding the roads attributable to stepped-up ICE enforcement.

All of this provides to an already difficult working atmosphere and may put shippers on excessive alert over the following 12 months. Trucking demand has collapsed over the previous yr, but rejection and spot charges have remained resilient.

This dynamic means that if demand returns — and even stabilizes — the market may shortly flip, pushing long-term charges greater once more. Shippers ought to concentrate on the standard of their service companions somewhat than simply value financial savings, because the charges negotiated right this moment are prone to turn out to be outdated earlier than the following bid cycle in late 2026.

The FreightWaves Chart of the Week is a chart choice from SONAR that gives an fascinating knowledge level to explain the state of the freight markets. A chart is chosen from hundreds of potential charts on SONAR to assist members visualize the freight market in actual time. Every week a Market Knowledgeable will submit a chart, together with commentary, stay on the entrance web page. After that, the Chart of the Week shall be archived on FreightWaves.com for future reference.

SONAR aggregates knowledge from a whole lot of sources, presenting the information in charts and maps and offering commentary on what freight market consultants wish to know concerning the business in actual time.

The FreightWaves knowledge science and product groups are releasing new datasets every week and enhancing the shopper expertise.

The submit How secure are contract charges? appeared first on FreightWaves.