For now, the rumors a couple of potential Sen. Alex Padilla for California governor run are simply that, rumors.
However they’ve definitely received Democratic operatives and consultants speaking — at the same time as Padilla and his camp stay loudly mum on the chance.
Associated: These are the candidates for California governor in 2026
The main focus for California’s senior senator, stated Padilla spokesperson Edgar Rodriguez when requested in regards to the gubernatorial rumors on Wednesday, stays on California’s upcoming particular election on redistricting. That’s been the get together line up to now few weeks, for the reason that rumor mill actually began churning, and what Padilla himself has stated in current interviews.
That’s not a affirmation of a 2026 candidacy — but it surely’s definitely not a agency no both.
That’s half as a result of a powerful, clear frontrunner has but to emerge within the governor’s race, notably since former Vice President Kamala Harris stated she wouldn’t run for governor.
And that’s additionally half due to Padilla’s political resume and temperament, specialists stated.
“Padilla can be a formidable candidate. … I’m positive of us are fearful in regards to the present state of the race, doubtlessly having a governor who’s more durable to work with,” stated Ajay Mohan, a Democratic political guide in California. “Padilla would have a field-clearing impact, second to none.”
Padilla “brings a stage of visibility and recognition that will make him the candidate to beat,” stated Dan Schnur, who teaches political messaging at USC and UC Berkeley.
Political parallels for Padilla
Padilla, 52, was appointed to the U.S. Senate by Gov. Gavin Newsom in 2020 when the seat was vacated by Harris to develop into the nation’s vice chairman. He ran for, and gained, a full six-year time period in 2022, turning into California’s first Latino to carry a full-term seat within the U.S. Senate.
Raised in Pacoima, the son of Mexican immigrants, Padilla’s entry into politics within the early Nineteen Nineties was fueled by the politics of the late Eighties and early Nineteen Nineties San Fernando Valley and L.A., amid town’s rising Latino base.
These politics had been outlined a lot partly by one other intense period of anti-immigrant sentiment. Proposition 187, a 1994 California poll initiative permitted by voters, aimed to disclaim undocumented immigrants entry to public companies, together with schooling, well being care and social companies. It additionally required reporting of suspected undocumented immigrants to authorities.
The courts in the end struck it down, however the fervor propelled Padilla and plenty of in his technology into public service. He would be part of protests towards Prop. 187 within the early ’90s, in the end discovering a path into politics and authorities, managing political campaigns for a number of legislative candidates and serving as a discipline consultant for then-Sen. Dianne Feinstein.
Tom Hogen-Esch, a professor of political science at Cal State Northridge, sees political parallels within the present second, a time when the Trump administration’s mass immigration dragnet has swept the nation, hitting California — certainly, Padilla’s personal hometown of Pacoima — arduous.
Lower to the picture of Padilla on June 12, on the Division of Homeland Safety press workplace, amid the preliminary ramp-up of the immigration crackdown in Los Angeles.
There, Padilla was forcibly faraway from a press convention held by U.S. Homeland Safety Secretary Kristi Noem and different Trump administration officers when he tried to ask questions. Video confirmed Padilla kneeling on the bottom after being faraway from the room, earlier than officers pushed him to the bottom and handcuffed him along with his arms behind his again.
Hogen-Esch stated it was unclear whether or not that might be a “motivating issue” for a lot of voters subsequent 12 months.
However “to see a U.S. senator body-slammed, form of embodies among the political dynamics,” he stated.
“I’m unsure others within the race to this point could make that form of argument,” Hogen-Esch stated, referencing Padilla’s journey from a working-class San Fernando Valley city to high-profile Trump critic within the U.S. Senate to that day when he was handcuffed on nationwide TV.
Padilla vs. the remainder of the crowded discipline
With Democratic candidates comparatively indistinguishable on coverage, “it’s a matter of who’s the very best messenger. However I feel Padilla can converse to the second in a method that among the different contenders gained’t have the ability to,” stated Hogen-Esch, an skilled on L.A. and California politics.
“I feel what the voters are going to take a look at just isn’t solely the expertise and the capability to guide, but in addition the ‘warriorness’ that’s wanted,” Richard Polanco, a former state Senate majority chief, who has led efforts to extend the statewide variety of Democratic legislators.
Title recognition and a protracted checklist of get together connections may make Padilla an instantaneous frontrunner within the race, generate large marketing campaign {dollars} and maybe trigger some lesser-known potential candidates to again down from operating, pundits stated.
“He turns into a tier 1 candidate instantly,” stated Michael Trujillo, a Democratic strategist.
Trujillo speculated a Padilla entrance within the race would affect former Well being and Human Providers Secretary Xavier Becerra essentially the most, amongst declared candidates. He famous the 2 boast related portfolios — each have labored in Washington, each have served within the state legislature and each would profit from D.C.-based relationships and donors.
“Becerra isn’t in workplace wherever,” Trujillo famous. “For those who’re a lobbyist in D.C., if Padilla runs, he’s nonetheless going to be a U.S. senator and nonetheless going to be important on payments within the Senate or in committee proper now. A greater insurance coverage coverage is to wager on Padilla quite than Becerra, as a result of if he does come up quick, he’s going to recollect everybody who supported him for governor.”
“For those who’re in D.C., you need to be sure that he has a contented reminiscence of you.”
The present discipline of candidates, stated Schnur, the political analyst who has labored on a number of California gubernatorial campaigns, just isn’t missing messages. “It simply lacks the recognizable messengers,” he stated.
Padilla is especially fascinating as a result of whereas he’s temperamentally extra average, he tracks extra progressive on points, stated Schnur, and that might depart a pathway for a extra centrist candidate, similar to former L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, to compete with him.
However on the progressive entrance, a Padilla candidacy would harm Becerra and former Rep. Katie Porter essentially the most, Schnur speculated.
After which there’s additionally one other potential candidate: Billionaire developer Rick Caruso, the current, unsuccessful candidate for L.A. mayor, stated Wednesday he’s “critically wanting” into operating for California governor.
Trujillo believes a Padilla candidacy would disrupt Caruso’s probabilities essentially the most. With out Harris within the race, Caruso had extra of a lane, he stated, however Padilla narrows that considerably.
“This totally disrupts Rick Caruso’s decision-making course of as soon as once more,” he stated.
Nonetheless, Polanco, who helps Villaraigosa within the governor’s race, additionally pointed to parallels between the second and the early Nineteen Nineties period of intense anti-immigrant fervor in California.
He stated the political value that Republicans paid for these years has resulted in a state the place Democrats dominate, and the place a Latino has a shot on the governor’s seat.
The present second, like again when former Republican Gov. Pete Wilson was campaigning for Prop. 187, will propel a rise in new voters, coming of age in 2026.
That might catalyze a Latino into workplace.
Individuals “will have the ability to look and say sure, the time is now, regardless of ethnicity,” stated Polanco.
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