By BILL BARROW and JONATHAN J. COOPER
Donald Trump is set to keep up Republicans’ threadbare Home majority this fall and keep away from a repeat of his first presidency, when Democrats received management of the chamber in midterm elections and went on to question him twice.
This time, Trump is concerned in candidate recruiting, shelling out strategic recommendation and promising he won’t let historical past repeat. However quite a few shifting items and unanswered questions stay.
Democrats, buoyed by the outcomes of a number of 2025 elections, are greater than longing for the president to be the GOP entrance man, although additionally they should enhance their inventory with voters and appeal to rising numbers of independents. Ongoing redistricting battles, spurred on by Trump, may have an effect on the eventual final result. As Trump tries to not repeat 2018, he is also combating midterm traits which have gone in opposition to a president’s occasion for generations.
Whereas Home management is on the heart of the midterms, which occasion holds the bulk will probably be settled by a small share of the chamber’s 435 seats. Democrats are concentrating on practically 40 Republican-held districts, whereas Republicans are aiming for a number of dozen seats held by Democrats.
Listed here are some key questions and information to elucidate the struggle forward.
Will historical past be a information?
The occasion within the White Home not often good points seats and even holds floor within the midterms. Generally the losses are steep, particularly within the first midterms of a presidency. Second-term presidents wrestle, too.
“It’s an incredible phenomenon,” Trump acknowledged at a current Home Republican retreat.
The 2026 dynamics don’t evaluate completely with the previous: Trump is neither a conventional new president nor a conventional second-term president as a result of he’s in a second however nonconsecutive time period.
Regardless, since 1932, the sitting president’s occasion has misplaced a mean of 26 Home seats, and solely thrice has the president’s occasion gained seats. The final time it occurred was 2002: Republicans picked up seats within the first nationwide elections after the 9/11 assaults that made George W. Bush a wartime president on the time of the midterms.
Each different president since 1992, together with Trump in 2018, has seen Home management shift to the opposition within the first midterm after flipping management of the Oval Workplace.
One other dynamic could also be an element this 12 months: Dozens of Home members have introduced they’re not operating for reelection, placing a report variety of seats up for grabs at this level within the midterm election cycle.
What clues are there from the 2025 elections?
Democrats romped in November, successful elections throughout the nation. In Home particular elections final 12 months, Democrats outperformed their 2024 presidential election outcomes, usually by double digits. In addition they flipped Republican-held legislative seats nationwide.
Off-year elections will not be excellent predictors of midterm outcomes. However it’s notable that Democrats noticed the identical traits in 2017 earlier than their 2018 midterm victories throughout Trump’s first time period. Republicans had related robust performances in 2009, the primary 12 months of Barack Obama’s presidency, earlier than the GOP wave of 2010.
How a lot will Trump matter?
Trump and Home Republicans are going all-in collectively, no matter his job approval rankings.
Georgia Rep. Brian Jack, the Republicans’ chief candidate recruiter, stated many GOP recruits received into their races as a result of they’re “very impressed by President Trump” and that voters will see nominees “speaking in regards to the president’s successes.”
Jack stated Republicans can’t afford to distance themselves from the president. But Trump’s approval was simply 40% in January, in line with current Related Press-NORC Heart for Public Affairs Analysis polling, a quantity that has remained persistently low all through his second time period. That might make it tougher to excite core Republicans and attain independents on the similar time.
Previous presidents’ approval score within the lead-up to midterms has largely correlated with their occasion’s efficiency, in line with Gallup polling. For instance, Invoice Clinton’s approval score was on the decline heading into the “Republican Revolution” of 1994. He rebounded considerably 4 years later when Home Democrats gained seats.
One other dynamic that might be excellent news for Democrats this fall: A new Gallup survey discovered that 45% of U.S. adults now determine as independents. These adults seem, more and more, to be pushed by their unhappiness with the occasion in energy, in line with Gallup’s evaluation.
What points will dominate the campaigns?
Pocketbook points promise to be on the forefront of this fall’s campaigns.
In a December AP-NORC ballot that requested adults an open-ended query about what points they need the federal government to concentrate on this 12 months, 4 in 10 individuals talked about well being care prices. That put the problem about even with immigration. About one-third cited cost-of-living normally. About 2 in 10 U.S. adults needed the federal authorities to concentrate on housing prices.
Democrats are hammering affordability on all the pieces from groceries to well being care. They argue that Trump received in 2024 due to inflation however that he has not fastened the issue. Trump has referred to the affordability “hoax” but in addition nodded to political and financial realities: He has urged Republicans to attain a deal on medical health insurance premium subsidies and he’s promising populist motion on housing prices.
Trump needs Republicans to promote the sweeping home coverage regulation handed final summer season as a tax lower for working-class voters. Democrats be aware that tax benefits within the regulation, which handed with solely GOP assist, are tilted to wealthier People whereas the regulation cuts well being care and different applications.
How essential are particular person candidates?
Regardless of nationwide narratives, Republicans and Democrats insist candidates nonetheless matter, particularly in swing districts.
“It’s actually district-by-district,” stated Illinois Rep. Lauren Underwood, a chief candidate recruiter for Democrats. “It’s not simply going to be a story of ‘the suburbs reject Trump’ or one thing like that.”
Actually, nationwide temper issues, Underwood stated. If voters’ broad opinions shift again in Trump’s favor on the economic system, for instance, Republicans stand to do higher. However a celebration with the broad traits in its favor nonetheless will need to have a reputable candidate that voters in a aggressive district see as plausibly representing them.
That’s why Democrats have been particularly sorry to see Rep. Jared Golden, a average who represents most of small-town and rural Maine, forgo reelection, whereas Republicans count on to appoint former two-term Gov. Paul LePage. Golden represents certainly one of 13 Democratic-held districts that Trump received in 2024.
Democrats are enthusiastic about candidates reminiscent of Elaine Luria, a army veteran and former congresswoman. She is attempting to reclaim a Virginia swing district that has not modified considerably since she received it in 2018.
Will new, gerrymandered districts matter?
Republicans started this Congress with a 220-215 benefit. However Trump pushed GOP-led states to attract new maps that might improve the variety of congressional districts the place Republicans have a bonus. Democratic-led states responded with their very own plans. Notably, the redistricting back-and-forth was led by the 2 largest states, GOP-run Texas and Democratic-led California.
Altogether, Republicans seem to have elevated their odds by a handful of districts. However a number of states are both nonetheless contemplating new maps or their revisions are being challenged in courtroom.
If the Supreme Court docket guts a key provision of the Voting Rights Act, some states managed by Republicans may theoretically transfer shortly to eradicate Democratic benefits in districts the place nonwhite voters have sway.
Briefly, the nationwide map is up within the air.
The ultimate model may assist Republicans maintain a majority. Or Republicans may reach rising the variety of GOP-friendly districts but nonetheless lose Home management as a result of voter discontent flips sufficient districts anyway. In that case, the gerrymandering would merely imply a smaller new majority for Democrats.
AP Polling Editor Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux in Washington contributed to this report.
