Maps present how Texas, California and Missouri’s redistricting may have an effect on congressional seats

Missouri has joined Texas and California in redrawing its congressional maps, as a part of a redistricting push that might result in Republicans drawing themselves as many as six additional Home seats whereas Democrats’ efforts may assist them decide up 5.

The redistricting gambit started with President Trump’s name for Texas Republicans to search out extra seats. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott signed laws in August to redraw the state’s districts and create 5 GOP-friendly seats, launching the primary salvo in a push that has drawn nationwide consideration. It led to California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s personal marketing campaign to redraw the map to assist Democrats.

Then, in Missouri, state lawmakers redrew their map earlier this month to edge out Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver from his Kansas Metropolis district. Missouri Gov. Mike Kehoe, a Republican, signed the laws on Sunday. 

Challenges stay for the maps in all three states. The NAACP filed a lawsuit difficult Kehoe’s authority to create the brand new map exterior of a census yr, and three different lawsuits have been filed. Civil rights teams are additionally suing in Texas, claiming the maps are racially biased. And in California, the state’s new map should be accredited by voters in a November particular election earlier than it takes impact.

Congressional maps are usually redrawn each 10 years after the U.S. Census reveals inhabitants shifts. However this uncommon mid-decade redistricting push was kicked off as Republicans search to take care of — and even develop — their razor-thin majority in Congress within the 2026 midterm elections. Traditionally talking, midterms are sometimes a rebuke of the social gathering within the White Home.

Abbott then referred to as a particular session of the Legislature with redistricting on the agenda. However two weeks into the 30-day particular session, Texas Democrats fled the state to disclaim a quorum and stop the laws from coming to the ground. 

The Democrats in the end returned after two weeks, and the laws was handed, however they garnered vital nationwide consideration. Though California requires congressional maps to be accredited by voters, Newsom vowed to redraw the state’s districts to garner as much as 5 seats for Democrats to counter Texas.

Amid this push, different states have additionally began to debate redistricting efforts, includingIndiana and Florida, which may internet Republicans a number of extra seats. 

Though each events try to rig their states’ congressional districts to be favorable to themselves, the result is much from assured.

“Computer systems and expertise do give us much more capability to to make predictive statements about outcomes, however we’re doing it — I believe it is truthful to say — in a really risky setting politically, the place issues that we now have seen as traits are type of being turned on their heads,” stated Kareem Crayton, vice chairman of the Washington, D.C.-based the Brennan Heart for Justice. 

Crayton famous a number of present points that might issue closely into voters’ selections, and referred to as it “folly to imagine that simply because folks confirmed up and voted for the present president of the USA, that folks need to present up for a member of Congress, significantly … a brand new candidate in a district that hasn’t been created earlier than.” 

See maps of how Texas, California and Missouri’s push may play out, based mostly on the 2024 election outcomes:

Texas has 38 congressional seats, 25 of that are presently held by Republicans. The opposite 13 are held by Democrats. 

Texas Republicans have invested closely within the Rio Grande Valley, as soon as a Democratic stronghold however Mr. Trump and the GOP have made features right here previously few years. 

In 2024, two of the three Rio Grande Valley Home seats voted for Mr. Trump however reelected their Democratic member of Congress. The brand new maps try so as to add to these features and field out these two Democrats. 

Texas Democrats have lately made features within the Dallas-Fort Price space and Houston’s Harris County. The brand new maps reshape Democratic Rep. Al Inexperienced’s Houston district within the rural areas, making a district that was 72% Democratic into one that’s 40% Democratic. The proposed map additionally modifications Rep. Julie Johnson’s Dallas-area district from 62% to 41% Democratic. Rep. Marc Veasey’s  district in Dallas-Fort Price stays a Democratic stronghold, however he would now not reside within the district. 

Liberal Austin is additional dissolved into neighboring districts. Rep. Lloyd Doggett, who was first elected in 1994 and whose district gave former Vice President Kamala Harris her largest margin of victory in all of Texas, introduced in August that he wouldn’t search reelection if the proposed maps are upheld by the courts, avoiding a main with Rep. Greg Casar, additionally of Austin. 

California has 52 Home representatives, 9 of whom are Republicans and 43 are Democrats. 

In 2020, Republicans flipped three Democratic-held seats for the primary time since 1994. They’ve held two of them, together with Rep. David Valadao’s twenty second District within the Central Valley. 

Below the proposed map, Valadao’s district would go from being 47% Democratic in 2024 to 49% Democratic, making him barely extra susceptible. And GOP Rep. Darrell Issa’s forty eighth District close to San Diego would change from 42% to 52% Democratic.

In Southern California, Rep. Ken Calvert’s forty first District in Riverside can be redrawn additional towards Los Angeles, shifting it from a district that was 47% Democratic in 2024 to at least one that’s 57% Democratic beneath the proposed maps. 

In Northern California, GOP Rep. Doug LaMalfa’s District 1, which incorporates probably the most northeastern a part of the state, would shift additional south towards Marin County and the northern half can be absorbed within the 2nd District, house to closely Democratic Eureka and the northern Pacific coast. Rep. Kevin Kiley’s district, which snakes alongside the California-Nevada border by Demise Valley, would as an alternative transfer additional towards closely Democratic Sacramento. Republican Rep. Tom McClintock’s fifth District can be shifted to incorporate the southern parts of what was Kiley’s district.

Kiley, whose district would go from one which was 48% Democratic in 2024 to at least one that’s 55% Democratic, has been an outspoken critic of redistricting, even introducing laws within the Home to ban mid-decade redistricting.

After Texas and California’s redistricting efforts, Kehoe referred to as a particular session of Missouri’s legislature to take up redistricting. Missouri presently has two Democratic representatives in Congress: Rep. Wesley Bell, who represents St. Louis and was first elected in 2025, and Cleaver, who has represented the Kansas Metropolis space since 2005.

As Missouri has trended towards Republicans over the previous 20 years, Cleaver’s district has been a goal of the GOP, particularly within the 2021 redistricting when a number of lawmakers pushed for what was referred to as the “7 to 1 map” that may have redrawn the fifth Congressional District to be extra Republican. Lawmakers in the end determined towards that plan. St. Louis’ NPR station reported that Republicans frightened that the short-term features from carving up the district may result in long-term issues within the neighboring suburban districts. 

Nonetheless, the Missouri GOP joined the redistricting effort in 2025. Below the brand new map, Cleaver’s district transforms from one that’s 62% Democratic to at least one that’s 41% Democratic. Cleaver says he nonetheless plans to run for reelection.

The neighboring 4th and sixth Districts each develop into barely bluer, to 39% and 36% Democratic, respectively, however they’re nonetheless safely Republican. 

By increasing the 2nd District south and west, GOP Rep. Ann Wagner’s district turns into redder, going from 46% Democratic in 2024 to 44%. Whereas Wagner has maintained her grip on the district, Mr. Trump received by solely 100 votes beneath the earlier strains in 2020. Within the 2021 redistricting, Wagner’s district misplaced a number of the Democratic-leaning St. Louis County.