Mattel’s American Woman model turns 40, dolls enter a brand new period

The flagship American Woman Place at Rockefeller Middle in New York Metropolis feels frozen in time.

The air smells faintly of vanilla. Younger women dart between doll shows clutching miniature shirts and sequined footwear. Beneath glittering chandeliers, the model’s iconic purple bins line cabinets with museum-like precision. Blow dryers hum within the Doll Salon, and downstairs, pink-frosted cupcakes land on cafe tables earlier than dolls sitting upright of their miniature highchairs.

“It feels timeless,” stated Jamie Cygielman, world head of dolls for Mattel, the model’s mum or dad firm.

And but, behind the scenes, the enterprise of American Woman dolls shouldn’t be what it as soon as was.

As American Woman turns 40, the model is navigating extra fashionable challenges: digital competitors, shifting play patterns and an getting older, extra cost-conscious buyer base.

“The anniversary is at precarious second for American Woman and the entire doll trade,” stated Jaime Katz, an analyst who covers Mattel for Morningstar. “Children are extra digital in play, and the [American Girl] model has struggled.”

Round a decade in the past, at its peak, American Woman was recording greater than $600 million in annual gross sales. By 2023, annual gross sales had fallen to roughly $200 million — only a third of prior ranges.

Whereas American Woman has shrunk again significantly from the mid-2010s, the model has extra not too long ago posted 5 consecutive quarters of gross sales development — one of many few regular performers inside Mattel’s portfolio.

“Rising off a base that is down greater than 60% does not imply the model is again. It means it is stabilizing,” Katz informed CNBC.

Earlier this month, Mattel reported fourth-quarter gross sales of $1.77 billion, falling wanting Wall Avenue expectations after vacation demand got here in lighter than projected and heavier discounting weighed on margins. Earnings per share likewise fell quick, and Mattel issued a lower-than-expect revenue forecast for 2026.

Mattel shares have fallen roughly 19% because the Feb. 10 report and are down about 20% over the previous yr. Citi and JPMorgan downgraded the inventory after the outcomes, too.

“Persons are watching Mattel this yr … ready with baited breath, as a result of they’re spending a ton and it appears unlikely they are going to be bringing in huge income,” Katz stated.

Even earlier than the Covid pandemic compelled American Woman to cut back its retail footprint from about 15 shops in 2019 to seven U.S. places at this time, the model confronted mounting competitors from lower-priced options at big-box retailers like Goal’s “Our Era” line.

A conventional, 18-inch American Woman sometimes begins at $135, excluding equipment, which may value as a lot as $250 for a bunk mattress or $275 for a seaside cruiser.

The premium value as soon as signaled to many dad and mom a mark of high quality and status, stated Laura Tretter, co-host of the American Woman Girls podcast. However in an inflation-conscious surroundings, it is narrowed the shopper base, Katz stated.

“Mother and father are extra selective about discretionary spending proper now,” Katz stated. “That value level [for an American Girl doll] seems to be steep to many households.”

Throughout the toy trade, firms, together with rivals like Hasbro, are grappling with the best way to get children involved in their merchandise, notably amid uneven client spending and, not too long ago, commerce uncertainty.

“There are such a lot of extra issues at this time {that a} child could be enticed by to play with,” Cygielman informed CNBC. “There’s additionally extra competitors at this time, and we noticed up to now that tariffs could make an impression on the toy market, however we adapt.”

For a lot of children, play has migrated towards tablets, gaming subscriptions and short-form video.

“The definition of ‘toy’ has modified,” Katz stated. “A iPad or Nintendo Change competes immediately with a doll. There are merely extra claims on the identical discretionary greenback.”

Total, Mattel’s doll and preschool classes have confronted regular declines for the final three quarters, even after the halo impact of 2023’s “Barbie” film. International dolls gross sales fell 7% within the newest quarter, whereas the toddler, toddler and preschool phase declined 17%.

Struggling gross sales for American Woman and Mattel’s Fisher Value model motivated activist investor Barington Capital in 2024 to push the corporate to streamline its portfolio and enhance returns, floating the potential of promoting off the manufacturers.

“American Woman shouldn’t be an enormous a part of Mattel’s total monetary profile,” Katz stated. “Nonetheless although, for buyers, the query is not whether or not the model is beloved. It is whether or not it is strategically important. It was a drag on income.”

Contained in the Rockefeller Middle retailer, these trade headwinds really feel distant.

On a latest go to, Lisa Kandoski stood gazing at Molly McIntire — the World Conflict II-era heroine adorned with spherical wire-rimmed glasses, a navy argyle sweater and braids tied in purple ribbons — similar to the doll Kandoski stated her grandmother put below the Christmas tree in 1990.

“It isn’t only a doll,” Kandoski, now 40, informed CNBC, her eyes misty. “I form of realized the impression Molly had on me as a child. She taught me that you can be courageous even when the world was scary, that you can ‘do your half’ even while you have been small. She formed who I’m.”

That emotional alchemy has outlined American Woman because it disrupted the doll trade in 1986. On the time, the market was dominated by both trend dolls mirroring maturity or child dolls to rehearse motherhood.

The unique six American Woman characters — Samantha, Kirsten, Molly, Felicity, Addy and Josefina — got here with books tackling topics hardly ever taught to younger children like youngster labor or racism, and all dolls handled girlhood itself as a formative stage.

“American Woman stays an ethical compass for many people,” stated Tretter of the American Woman Girls podcast. “I really like that women at this time are nonetheless getting constructive messages about inclusivity, friendship and going by troublesome modifications.”

Over time, American Woman expanded into publishing, movie and vacation spot retail whereas diversifying its characters, like with the 2026 “Woman of the 12 months,” Raquel Reyes, a biracial DJ and animal rescuer who helps run her household’s Kansas Metropolis paleta store.

The model’s whimsical seriousness grew to become a differentiator and fostered generational loyalty, stated Justine Orlovsky-Schnitzler, a folklorist and creator of “An American Woman Anthology: Discovering Ourselves within the Nice Firm Universe.”

Look no additional than the Doll Hospital the place white-coated “medical doctors” triage sufferers, match wheelchairs, carry out eye exams, and apply miniature casts for doll house owners of all ages.

“That is why folks return,” Orlovsky-Schnitzler stated. “You are not simply shopping for plastic and material. You are revisiting a model of your self.”

And although the dolls stay preserved in childhood innocence, their unique house owners, now grown up, maintain returning to American Woman by podcasts, memes, cosplay and fan fiction.

Some cross their dolls all the way down to their kids. Others purchase new ones for themselves.

“There’s one thing highly effective about handing your daughter the doll you as soon as slept beside,” Orlovsky-Schnitzler stated. “It is also simply as comforting to return to the times of your youth with your personal doll.”

Mattel is battling to transform that nostalgia into broader gross sales development.

So‑referred to as “kidult” shoppers — adults who purchase toys for themselves — have grow to be a coveted demographic. By late 2024, spending on toys for adults 18 and older had surpassed that for youngsters ages 3 to five, based on market analysis agency Circana. That cohort continued to drive trade development in 2025.

Mattel has more and more sought to monetize its mental property by publishing, collectibles, leisure and digital platforms. In interviews and on calls with buyers, Mattel CEO Ynon Kreiz has stated that cell video games and interactive platforms are notably promising areas.

Nonetheless, “nostalgia should translate into sturdy income and gross sales development,” Katz stated. Lean too closely into grownup collectors, and a model dangers “getting older alongside its unique viewers.” Pivot too aggressively towards digital developments, and it “dangers diluting what made it distinctive.”

Opponents have been doing the identical. For example, Lego continues to launch extra brick constructing units aimed toward adults like flowers, artwork and collectables primarily based on millennial popular culture favorites such because the Nineteen Nineties TV hit “Associates.”

For American Woman, its fortieth anniversary gives a pure inflection level to strike a stability between child and grownup followers, Cygielman stated.

American Woman is releasing modernized variations of its unique six characters and publishing its first ebook for adults, centered on Samantha Parkington and set throughout her maturity within the Twenties.

On the similar time, the model is working to maintain the subsequent era engaged by modern “Woman of the 12 months” storylines and investments in digital platforms, together with YouTube, TikTok and “American Woman World” on Roblox.

“Nostalgia is an entry level, not the endgame,” Cygielman stated. “The query is how we prolong that emotional fairness into new platforms and new audiences.”