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September Nymex pure fuel (NGU25) on Tuesday fell sharply by -0.146 (-4.94%).
Sep nat-gas costs on Tuesday plunged to a 9-month low on the nearest-futures chart. Nat-gas costs fell on forecasts for cooler US temps. Atmospheric G2 mentioned forecasts shifted cooler within the Northeast and Southeast for Aug 17-21, though forecasts trended hotter throughout the Midwest and Northeast for Aug 22-26.
One other bearish issue for nat-gas costs Tuesday was the EIA’s hike in its forecast for 2025 US nat-gas manufacturing by +0.5% to 106.44 bcf/day from July’s estimate of 105.9 bcf/day. The EIA raised its forecast for 2026 US nat-gas manufacturing by +0.7% to 106.09 from July’s 105.4 bcf/day forecast. US nat-gas manufacturing is at the moment close to a document excessive, with energetic US nat-gas rigs not too long ago posting a 2-year excessive.
Decrease-48 state dry fuel manufacturing on Tuesday was 108.6 bcf/day (+5.6% y/y), in keeping with BNEF. Decrease-48 state fuel demand on Tuesday was 78.2 bcf/day (+1.9% y/y), in keeping with BNEF. Estimated LNG internet flows to US LNG export terminals on Monday had been 15.4 bcf/day (-3.7% w/w), in keeping with BNEF.
A rise in US electrical energy output is optimistic for nat-gas demand from utility suppliers. The Edison Electrical Institute reported final Wednesday that whole US (lower-48) electrical energy output within the week ended August 2 rose +0.9% y/y to 99,367 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electrical energy output within the 52-week interval ending August 2 rose +2.7% y/y to 4,259,351 GWh.
Final Thursday’s weekly EIA report was bullish for nat-gas costs since nat-gas inventories for the week ended August 1 rose +7 bcf, under the consensus of +12 bcf and the 5-year common of +29 bcf for the week. As of August 1, nat-gas inventories had been down -4.3% y/y, however had been +5.9% above their 5-year seasonal common, signaling enough nat-gas provides. As of August 9, fuel storage in Europe was 72% full, in comparison with the 5-year seasonal common of 79% full for this time of 12 months.
Baker Hughes reported final Friday that the variety of energetic US nat-gas drilling rigs within the week ending August 8 fell by -1 to 123 rigs, slipping from the 2-year excessive of 124 rigs posted on August 1. Up to now ten months, the variety of fuel rigs has risen from the 4-year low of 94 rigs reported in September 2024.
On the date of publication, Wealthy Asplund didn’t have (both immediately or not directly) positions in any of the securities talked about on this article. All data and knowledge on this article is solely for informational functions. This text was initially revealed on Barchart.com
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