We’re now midway via the NBA season. It is time for our second Contender Tiers installment. There’s been some motion since the primary version, with the Pistons, Spurs and Wolves climbing, the stunning Suns and Celtics persevering with to impress, and the underside falling out on the Bucks.
As a reminder, this isn’t an influence rating of your complete league. Solely groups which have an opportunity to make a postseason run seem right here, although your mileage could differ on who qualifies.
Tier 1: Nonetheless the Champs
Issues obtained a bit of shaky there for a second. After beginning the season 24-1, the Thunder hit a tough patch and went 6-6. They misplaced to the Spurs 3 times in lower than three weeks. That put a fast finish to hypothesis about whether or not the Thunder might attain 74 wins and set an NBA file. As a substitute, the pearl clutching started in earnest about OKC being susceptible.
The priority trolling ended about as rapidly because it started. The Thunder rattled off a five-game profitable streak that included victories over the Rockets and Spurs. They continue to be first in defensive ranking by a major margin they usually’re fifth in offense. Their 13.1 level differential could be the perfect in NBA historical past, breaking the file they set simply final yr. With Nikola Jokić lacking time, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the heavy betting favourite to win a second straight MVP. And due to the arbitrary 65-game threshold somebody not named Victor Wembanyma may be the Defensive Participant of the Yr. At current, the percentages favor that somebody being Chet Holmgren (-135 at FanDuel).
If there was any momentary doubt, relaxation assured the Thunder are nonetheless actually good. To paraphrase Ric Aptitude, to be the champs you gotta beat the champs.
Tier 2: Greatest Challengers
- Detroit Pistons
- San Antonio Spurs
- Denver Nuggets
- Minnesota Timberwolves
The Pistons have the second-best file within the NBA. They’ve made gentle work of the Jap Convention, the place they’re 21-6. That features just lately throttling the Knicks by 31, a staff that has puffed out its chest about being a convention contender. Detroit is second in defensive ranking and practically top-10 in offense. Cade Cunningham is a lock to make All-NBA for the second straight season and is at present third within the MVP odds behind solely SGA and Luka Dončić. (I’ve him second in that division, for the file.) Jalen Duren has taken an enormous leap, they usually’re getting contributions up and down the roster from everybody from Ausar Thompson to Duncan Robinson to Caris LeVert. J.B. Bickerstaff for Coach of the Yr.
NBA midseason awards picks: Specialists select MVP, DPOY, Rookie of the Yr and extra at midway mark
Brad Botkin
When the Spurs beat OKC 3 times in roughly two weeks, they put the league on discover that they don’t seem to be simply arrange for the longer term, however that they are right here proper now. The wild half about that was Wembanyama did not have a bunch of outrageous outings, not less than not by his requirements. And after coming back from a calf pressure the Spurs introduced him alongside slowly and had him coming off the bench. He solely just lately returned to the beginning lineup. That is the scary half for the opposition. San Antonio is high 10 in each offense and protection this season they usually have not had a completely wholesome, totally purposeful Wemby for an excellent chunk of video games. Think about what they’ll do when everyone seems to be operational.
After Jokić went down the thought was the Nuggets would fall off, too. Along with Joker, Denver has had some unhealthy luck with accidents this season, with 4 of the 5 starters lacking severe time at varied factors, in addition to backup massive Jonas Valanciunas. And but the Nuggets hold combating. Quite a lot of that has to do with Jamal Murray holding them afloat whereas Joker is on the mend. Murray is having a profession season and is in line to make the All-Star staff for the primary time. The Nuggets’ top-ranked offense has greater than made up for the deficiencies on protection (the place Denver is simply twenty third). Peyton Watson has blossomed right into a reliable two-way participant, whereas Tim Hardaway Jr and Bruce Brown have been key contributors to the vastly improved bench. When the Nuggets are wholesome, be careful. Do not forget {that a} a lot worse model of the Nuggets took OKC to Recreation 7 final postseason. In our most up-to-date playoff predictions, I used to be one in every of a number of staffers who picked the Nuggets to come back out of the loaded West.
The Wolves obtained off to a gradual begin however have since steadied themselves and are as much as fourth within the West. They’re sixth in offensive ranking and ninth in protection, they usually have the third-best level differential within the convention. And no shock, however Anthony Edwards is balling proper now (although the Wolves simply wasted a 55-point banger from him in a loss at San Antonio over the weekend). Do not be stunned if he climbs into the highest 5 of the MVP race. Possibly the Wolves tinker on the commerce deadline, however the staff that is made back-to-back Western Convention finals is falling into kind once more.
Tier 3: What, Why and How?
Increase your hand in case you thought the Celtics could be reliable Jap Convention contenders halfway via the season? Until you reside in Boston, Malden or Waltham put your hand down. Really put your hand down in case you reside in these locations too. Nobody believes you. Deep down, I doubt even the Celtics actually believed they’d be on this spot proper now.
However right here they’re. Jayson Tatum went down within the 2025 playoffs with an Achilles harm and nonetheless hasn’t performed this season (although he and the Celtics have made loads of noise about him returning in time for the postseason, if not sooner). Jrue Vacation, Kristaps Porziņģis, Al Horford and Luke Kornet had been all cost-cutting measures to be able to hold the group from paying roughly half a billion {dollars} for a staff everybody figured was taking a spot yr.
As a substitute, the Celtics are proper the place they normally are — close to the highest of the Jap Convention. Jaylen Brown is having a profession yr and ought to be within the MVP dialog. Derrick White is as soon as once more on the quick listing for All-Protection — he is within the 96th percentile in defensive estimated plus-minus — whereas additionally having the best utilization charge of his profession and being requested to shoulder extra of the offensive load than he ever has earlier than.
Exterior of these guys and Payton Pritchard, it is anybody’s guess who steps up on a given evening as a result of Joe Mazzulla has gone so deep into his teaching bag that he has 11 guys in his common rotation. What an achievement all the way in which round. As I discussed, Bickerstaff is my Coach of the Yr proper now, however nobody might argue with Mazzulla profitable it.
Possibly the Celtics ought to be in Tier 2. Earlier than the season, saying they may legitimately win the East would have sounded ridiculous. Not anymore.
NBA midseason grades for each East staff: Celtics in ‘A’ tier, Knicks, Cavs, Hawks looking for footing
Jack Maloney
Tier 4: Remainder of the West
- Houston Rockets
- Los Angeles Lakers
- Phoenix Suns
Earlier than beginning their current dwelling stand, the Rockets performed simply 13 of their first 36 video games in Houston. That is uncommon, and it did not assist their file. Houston is 11-12 on the highway and needed to take care of some unusual journeys this season, together with a current swing the place the Rockets opted to remain in San Francisco forward of a recreation towards the Kings, who play greater than 80 miles away in Sacramento. There have been evidently resort points. First-world issues. The purpose right here is that extra time on their very own ground ought to assist even issues out for the Rockets, who’re fifteenth in remaining power of schedule. Being dwelling may additionally assist them discover their offensive oomph once more; they’re twenty second in offensive ranking in January after a chilly spell. The excellent news is that their +6.4 level differential is second-best within the West, they usually’re top-10 in each offensive and defensive ranking for the season even with their January struggles.
Placing the Lakers and Suns right here feels extra aspirational than actual. The Lakers have Luka, LeBron James and Austin Reaves (when he ultimately returns from a calf harm) which provides them an opportunity to play spoiler and perhaps win a playoff collection, however they’ve apparent roster design flaws. They’re twenty sixth in defensive ranking — however someway third in that division in Clutch video games the place they’ve gone 13-1. That disparity and inconsistent effort has very practically pushed head coach JJ Redick to insanity. The poor man is growing old in president years.
Not like the Lakers, the Suns are enjoying with home cash. Nobody anticipated them to do something this season. They’re one of many league’s nice surprises and are on the verge of transferring out of the play-in, and into the highest six. Jalen Inexperienced ought to be again from harm quickly, Devin Booker is having a superb season, and there are an entire host of actually helpful gamers within the rotation, from Dillon Brooks to Grayson Allen to Collin Gillespie. First-year head coach Jordan Ott ought to get some COY love, too.
NBA midseason grades for each West staff: Nuggets, Suns, Thunder arrange for fulfillment, Mavs, Clippers flounder
James Herbert
Tier 5: Uh oh?
Let’s begin with the positives. The Knicks are third within the East. They’re third in offensive ranking. And at current they continue to be the betting favorites to win the convention (+300 on FanDuel).
Now the regarding elements. Since profitable the NBA Cup and refusing to hold a banner (by no means anger the omnipotent Cup Gods), the Knicks are 7-10. They’ve misplaced eight of their final 10 video games, together with getting stomped by the Pistons, an unpleasant highway loss at Sacramento, and a house loss to the Suns over the weekend with a number of Knicks alumni on-hand at Madison Sq. Backyard to observe the indignity. Jalen Brunson is having an MVP-caliber season — however he rolled his ankle early in that loss to the Kings and has sat out the final two video games. You will recall that Brunson has had ankle points beforehand, together with final season when he missed a month of the season. The Knicks are praying that is not the case this time.
Karl-Anthony Cities is having one other All-Star-caliber marketing campaign even whereas having one of many worst taking pictures seasons of his life. (His 52.5 eFG% could be the worst mark of his profession.)
Most regarding of all, they can not seem to cease anybody, which is alarming contemplating they make use of two of the perfect all-around defenders within the league in OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges, in addition to top-of-the-line rim protectors in Mitchell Robinson. The Knicks are nineteenth in defensive ranking. That is worrisome by itself, however they’re getting worse. During the last 15 video games, they’re twenty seventh in that division. Solely the Pelicans, Nuggets and Jazz have been worse. Laborious to be true contenders whenever you’re getting constantly cooked on protection. Historical past suggests they’re in hassle.
Tier 6: Honorable point out
The Cavaliers have not been in a position to get into an actual rhythm all season. The Warriors have received seven of their final 10 however the vibes haven’t been nice for some time now. Justice for Jonathan Kuminga. There have been subsequent to no expectations for the Raptors and Sixers coming into this season. Rely them among the many nice surprises. (If Joel Embiid performs half a season and is upright for the playoffs, that is an enormous win for the Sixers — particularly with Tyrese Maxey rising as the principle man in Philly.) I am nonetheless not bought on Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero working as a viable duo.
Tier 7: Not pictured
Everybody else. The Blazers and Deni Avdija are a surprisingly enjoyable watch. The Grizzlies are a multitude. Good luck discovering a taker and an actual return for Ja Morant (even with the monster recreation he had in London). Sure, the Clippers have performed significantly better recently — they’ve received 5 in a row and 12 of their final 14 — however no I am not shopping for them doing something of be aware even when they sneak into the play-in. Particularly since they only despatched Kawhi Leonard dwelling from their highway journey attributable to irritation in his left knee.
