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For the second straight week, a popular heavy favorite lost in the early window of Sunday’s NFL games. This time, it was the Bills, who stubbed their toe in a big way against the Dolphins.
So for the second straight week, the public betting masses couldn’t overcome that setback, as bookmakers got the W in NFL Week 10 odds.
“That was massive. Anytime you have a favorite of a touchdown-plus losing outright, you have a good chance of having a winning day,” said Casey Degnon, risk manager of The SuperBook.
More on that upset and the weekend that was, as oddsmakers at sportsbooks across the country recap NFL and college football betting.
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Bills Get Buffaloed
It was hard for the public to stay away from Buffalo in Week 10. The Bills were coming off a 28-21 home victory over the Chiefs, who just happen to be the Super Bowl favorite, despite their 5-4 record.
At The SuperBook, the Bills were 7.5-point road favorites over the Dolphins at kickoff. Other sportsbooks in Vegas and across the country had Buffalo at -8 or even -8.5.
But it didn’t matter. Miami led 16-0 at halftime and went on to a 30-13 victory. That upset blew up countless moneyline parlays that stretched across the day.
Considering that the Lions, Seahawks and Rams all won easily as favorites in Sunday’s late window of games, and the Chargers did likewise Sunday night, the Bills’ loss was the key for oddsmakers.
“It was a good week,” BetMGM senior trader Tristan Davis said. “We gave some back in the last four games of the day. But the Bills and Bucs getting beat was enough to secure a winning day.”
Tampa Bay, a 2.5-point home favorite, fell to red-hot Drake Maye and the Patriots 28-23, with the Bucs a popular play among BetMGM customers.
And although the Panthers generally don’t take much action, they got Week 10 support as 5.5-point home favorites vs. the last-place Saints. Then Carolina did what it has done the previous 10 times in the favorite’s role: lost outright.
The Panthers took a 7-0 lead on a first-quarter TD and didn’t score again in a 17-7 setback.
Always an Outlier
Although the Bills’ loss was welcomed by multiple sportsbooks, at least one shop wasn’t celebrating: South Point, on the south end of Las Vegas Boulevard. The book is always packed on NFL Sundays, and now and then, customers there zig where others have zagged.
“It was the exact opposite for us. We had a ton of point-spread and moneyline play on the Dolphins. It was our biggest loser of the day,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said.
The hits didn’t stop there. The Texans’ stunning comeback, from down 29-10 entering the fourth quarter to winning 36-29, also left a mark. Houston was a 1.5-point home favorite vs. Jacksonville.
With 31 seconds left, the Texans took a 30-29 lead, so they were still a half-point short of covering. However, on the ensuing possession, Jags QB Trevor Lawrence fumbled the ball, and Texans defensive lineman Sheldon Rankins rumbled 32 yards for a TD as time expired.
“That was not so good. We had some late money on the Texans,” Andrews said. “Everybody had the Ravens, and we had late play on the Patriots. And the Seahawks and Rams games hurt.”
Baltimore was a 5-point road favorite and beat Minnesota 27-19. Seattle put Arizona in a 35-0 hole by midway through the second quarter, breezing to a 44-22 victory. The Rams got to -6.5 by kickoff vs. the 49ers and won 42-26 on the road.
On Campus
College football Week 11 odds featured a host of popular favorites that won and covered. So the public betting masses at least had a solid Saturday.
“All the really good teams won,” Andrews said, while noting most of them covered the spread, too. “Alabama, Texas A&M, Texas Tech. The Georgia game was bad, too.”
Alabama was a 10-point favorite vs. LSU and narrowly covered in a 20-9 home victory. Texas A&M, a 7-point favorite at Missouri, rolled to a 38-17 victory.
Texas Tech routed BYU 29-7, easily covering as a 13.5-point home favorite while dealing the Cougars their first loss of the season. And Georgia, a 9.5-point favorite at Mississippi State, notched a 41-21 victory.
“It wasn’t a terrible day, but it wasn’t good,” Andrews said.
BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee noted his shop got beat by Texas Tech and Texas A&M, as well.
One bright side for the bookmakers: Indiana struggling to beat Penn State. The Hoosiers were 14-point road favorites and trailed 24-20 late in the fourth quarter.
Indiana won 27-24 on an incredible touchdown catch by Omar Cooper Jr. to remain undefeated. But the Hoosiers fell miles short of covering the point spread.
At both DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM, among all of Saturday’s games, Indiana took more spread bets and more spread money than any other team.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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