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Our NFL “ultimate 4” has been finalized, as convention championship weekend takes place this Sunday.
Mike Vrabel has taken the New England Patriots from pretender to contender in his first season, whereas Sean Payton’s Denver Broncos lastly gained their first playoff sport since Tremendous Bowl 50. Nonetheless, they did lose their quarterback within the course of. Over on the NFC aspect of issues, we get one other NFC West showdown this week, as Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams journey to Seattle to tackle Sam Darnold and the Seahawks. When these two groups met final month, they gave us one of many video games of the yr, as Seattle transformed a game-winning two-point conversion in time beyond regulation. What is going to occur this time round?
Which groups must you choose this week, and which must you fade? CBS Sports activities writers Jordan Dajani and Jared Dubin are right here to interrupt them down. For readability, strains for these choices had been taken on Jan. 21 over at DraftKings Sportsbook.
New England Patriots (-5.5) at Denver Broncos
Sunday, 3 p.m. ET on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)
Dajani (Patriots -5.5): I am unsure what sort of deal Mike Vrabel made with the soccer gods, however it’s fairly unbelievable that New England acquired to play the best energy of schedule because the flip of the millennium, hosted a hapless Justin Herbert within the wild-card spherical, the turnover addict C.J. Stroud within the divisional spherical, and who’s ready for the Patriots within the AFC Championship sport? JARRETT STIDHAM.
Stidham is the seventh quarterback to make his first begin of the season within the playoffs, and solely one of many earlier six truly gained their sport. He’s 1-3 as an NFL starter, and will probably be fascinating to see how Sean Payton alters his sport plan with Bo Nix out. No matter Stidham’s function on Sunday, there are two issues that should occur if the Broncos need this upset: The run sport has to reappear and the protection has to dominate. Since J.Ok. Dobbins was injured in Week 10, the Broncos rank backside 10 in speeding yards per sport and yards per rush. Dobbins has an opportunity to return this week, however I am not banking on him to be an X issue. This Denver protection ranks prime three in factors allowed per sport (18.3), yards allowed per sport (278.2) and third-down share (33.8%) as nicely. Vance Joseph’s unit can undoubtedly include Drake Maye, however the Patriots are the one group with an ideal against-the-spread report (8-0) on the highway this season. I imagine this might be an in depth sport till New England lastly covers within the fourth quarter … Prediction: Patriots 20, Broncos 13
Dubin (Patriots -5.5): This one is fairly easy: the Broncos is not going to have their beginning quarterback for this sport. It is actually arduous to see them placing collectively a consultant offensive efficiency with Jarrett Stidham on the helm — particularly given how nicely the New England protection has performed up to now throughout the playoffs in holding down offenses piloted by Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud. New England’s offense hasn’t precisely lit the world on fireplace in both of its video games in opposition to elite defenses, and the Broncos current one other one for them to go up in opposition to, however I’ve much more belief in Drake Maye going in opposition to a Denver unit that has truly proven some leaks since its bye week, than I do in Stidham and Co. in opposition to the Pats. … Prediction: Patriots 21, Broncos 10
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5)
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo — attempt free of charge)
Dajani (Rams +2.5): My preseason Tremendous Bowl choose was Ravens vs. Rams, and simply because I used to be flawed about Baltimore doesn’t imply I am flaking on Los Angeles on this spot. Everybody goes to be on the Seahawks this week due to their unbelievable protection, however I’ll remind you that Matthew Stafford and Co. racked up 581 yards of complete offense and 37 factors in that time beyond regulation thriller in Seattle we witnessed final month. This choose comes all the way down to me trusting Stafford and his implausible solid of weapons greater than Sam Darnold. The historic traits are in my favor as nicely. The Rams are 2-0 all-time vs. the Seahawks within the playoffs, and have gained 4 straight NFC Championship sport appearances.
I do know scoring factors in opposition to this Seahawks protection might be powerful. The one touchdowns they’ve allowed since Thanksgiving, not together with the Rams matchup, are a Philip Rivers passing landing and a Bryce Younger speeding landing. Nonetheless, I am calling for the upset. Sean McVay is 5-2 in opposition to the unfold and 4-3 straight up as an underdog within the playoffs … Prediction: Rams 24, Seahawks 23
Dubin (Rams +2.5): I picked the Rams to beat the Seahawks within the NFC title sport in our pre-playoff predictions, so I’m clearly rolling with the identical choose right here. L.A. gained the primary sport between these two groups and will have gained the second, and would have if not for one of many craziest two-point conversions anybody has ever seen. The Seahawks have an elite protection and home-field benefit, however when two groups are as shut in high quality as these two are, I at all times wish to roll with whichever group has the benefit at quarterback, the sport’s most necessary place. On this case, that is Matthew Stafford and the Rams. I like them to advance with a closely-contested win. … Prediction: Rams 23, Seahawks 20
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