The SportsLine Projection Mannequin was developed and powered by the Contained in the Strains staff. You will discover all of our staff’s picks and content material at our weblog, which has all our private greatest bets at no cost. Over twenty years, we’ve reverse engineered oddsmakers’ fashions which has resulted in 85-90% of our projections being just about equivalent to the oddsmaker’s traces.
Whereas most betting ‘consultants’ attempt to decide the fitting aspect, we give attention to figuring out the traces that had been manipulated 1, 2, or 3 factors for non-statistical causes. These are the traces that Sportsbooks hope are ‘sucker bets’ and permit them to get 70%+ of motion to take the ‘unhealthy worth’.
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Nothing occurred in Week 1 to query our pre-season energy rankings. The Payments and Ravens are the category of the AFC, that is the season the Chiefs’ dynasty falls, the Patriots ARE NOT a playoff risk, the Packers are the perfect staff within the NFC North, the Saints could also be extra aggressive than you assume, and Bryce Younger’s stable end in ’24 was not going to translate to success this season.
Yeah, it is too early to pat ourselves on the again, however we are going to anyway.
Our rankings are usually not primarily based on what a staff has completed. They’re 100% primarily based on how good we see them being going ahead primarily based on the % of simulations they win vs each different staff on a Impartial area. However if you really think about wins and losses you’ll be able to positively discover good betting values (see under) when traces are primarily based on energy rating however not correctly accounting for future power of schedule
| PWR RANK | TEAM | NEUTRAL WIN% | PROJ WINS | DIVISION | PLAYOFF | SB |
| 1 | Philadelphia Eagles | 71.6% | 11.3 | 60.7% | 89.2% | 15.0% |
| 2 | Baltimore Ravens | 71.2% | 11.3 | 65.8% | 91.1% | 14.8% |
| 3 | Buffalo Payments | 70.4% | 13.3 | 96.8% | 99.4% | 23.1% |
| 4 | Inexperienced Bay Packers | 70.2% | 11.8 | 69.1% | 93.9% | 16.1% |
| 5 | Detroit Lions | 66.4% | 9.3 | 10.9% | 52.5% | 3.8% |
| 6 | Kansas Metropolis Chiefs | 61.1% | 9.5 | 23.4% | 61.4% | 2.7% |
| 7 | Washington Commanders | 60.3% | 10.3 | 37.0% | 74.7% | 4.4% |
| 8 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 59.0% | 10.8 | 90.2% | 92.4% | 5.0% |
| 9 | Denver Broncos | 58.7% | 10.0 | 32.5% | 71.7% | 2.9% |
| 10 | Los Angeles Chargers | 56.7% | 9.9 | 37.8% | 71.8% | 2.4% |
| 11 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 56.4% | 9.5 | 23.7% | 64.0% | 2.1% |
| 12 | Minnesota Vikings | 54.7% | 9.5 | 18.9% | 56.3% | 1.5% |
| 13 | San Francisco 49ers | 53.7% | 10.3 | 44.9% | 73.6% | 1.9% |
| 14 | Cincinnati Bengals | 52.8% | 8.4 | 10.3% | 37.3% | 0.9% |
| 15 | Los Angeles Rams | 51.3% | 9.4 | 30.6% | 55.7% | 0.9% |
| 16 | Seattle Seahawks | 50.7% | 7.9 | 8.7% | 25.7% | 0.3% |
| 17 | Houston Texans | 50.3% | 8.0 | 20.6% | 34.0% | 0.5% |
| 18 | Arizona Cardinals | 48.2% | 8.8 | 15.9% | 40.2% | 0.6% |
| 19 | Dallas Cowboys | 46.0% | 7.2 | 2.1% | 14.3% | 0.2% |
| 20 | Chicago Bears | 44.1% | 6.6 | 1.1% | 8.7% | 0.1% |
| 21 | Indianapolis Colts | 44.1% | 9.5 | 56.1% | 68.8% | 0.6% |
| 22 | New York Jets | 40.9% | 6.9 | 1.1% | 12.0% | 0.0% |
| 23 | Atlanta Falcons | 40.9% | 6.5 | 3.4% | 8.9% | 0.0% |
| 24 | Miami Dolphins | 39.7% | 7.4 | 1.7% | 18.6% | 0.1% |
| 25 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 39.0% | 7.6 | 18.1% | 27.6% | 0.2% |
| 26 | Las Vegas Raiders | 38.5% | 7.8 | 6.3% | 26.6% | 0.1% |
| 27 | New York Giants | 35.6% | 5.1 | 0.2% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| 28 | New Orleans Saints | 35.2% | 6.6 | 5.4% | 10.3% | 0.0% |
| 29 | New England Patriots | 34.7% | 6.1 | 0.4% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 30 | Tennessee Titans | 33.8% | 6.0 | 5.2% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 31 | Cleveland Browns | 32.9% | 5.0 | 0.2% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| 32 | Carolina Panthers | 30.40% | 4.8 | 0.97% | 1.84% | 0.0% |
Buffalo Payments +650 (FanDuel) and Baltimore Ravens +750 (FanDuel) to Win Tremendous Bowl
The Ravens are positively the one staff within the AFC able to having a 15 level lead at Buffalo with 5 minutes to go. Buffalo is unquestionably the one staff within the AFC who can go on a 16-0 run in 5 minutes to beat Baltimore. Wager the Ravens and Payments at FanDuel Sportsbook, the place new customers get $300 in bonus bets with a successful $5 wager:
Each groups had been round +700 to start out the season so the 1 level win shortened Buffalo’s odds and the Ravens obtained barely longer however general their mixed implied odds (slightly below 25%) is large worth vs our mixed 38% likelihood. A 38% likelihood could be roughly a +160 line whereas the 25% interprets to a +300 line. So give us 0.5 a unit on every or pay 2 models to win both +450 or +550.
Inexperienced Bay Packers Look Even Higher than We Thought
We had a ton of affection for the Packers heading into the season and their protection, with Micah Parsons, was spectacular. Our prime futures guess was for them to win the NFC North, even earlier than buying Parsons. Despite the fact that they’re under the Eagles in energy rating, the Packers have a better schedule going ahead since they obtained one Detroit sport out of the way in which and so they have a third place NFC schedule. Wager the Pack at Caesars Sportsbook, the place you should utilize the promo code CBS20X to get 20 100% revenue boosts:
It isn’t introduced above however we now have Inexperienced Bay as the favourite to win the NFC at 29.3% with Philly at 26.6%. The very best odds for Inexperienced Bay are at DraftKings, Caesars, and Exhausting Rock at +425 which means 19.1%. Philly is at +350 to +360. So even when they’d the identical odds we might take Inexperienced Bay however at +425 we extremely advocate taking the Packers. Philly remains to be additionally betting worth.
Patriots are Extremely Overrated As a result of Drake Maye Is NOT a High 7 AFC QB
Drake Maye is an efficient QB. However the remainder of the staff just isn’t gifted sufficient for them to win over half their video games, even with a comparatively simple schedule, until Drake Maye is clearly a High 7 AFC QB. We had him behind Lamar, Josh, Burrow, Mahomes, Rodgers, Herbert, Nix and Stroud.
However after what we noticed from Fields, Trevor and even Geno Smith who he misplaced to in Week 1, perhaps he isn’t even a High 10 QB in a loaded AFC.
Take them to Win Beneath 8.5 Video games at -155 on DraftKings, or Exhausting Rock when you nonetheless can.
Indianapolis Colts Over 7.5 Wins (-140 DraftKings)
We proudly projected the Colts to be a lot improved with Daniel Jones at QB over Anthony Richardson and had them at 8.1 wins earlier than their 50/50 sport vs the Dolphins.
The beatdown of Miami not solely gave them a +0.5 win enchancment additionally they had actually good stats to make them higher than we had them earlier than the win going ahead. We now have them at 9.5 wins and you’ll nonetheless get them over 7.5 at a not too steep -140. The mixed Impartial Win% of their remaining opponents is simply 47.4%, the equal of simply the nineteenth greatest staff within the league (seventh best schedule within the league). Miami was really considered one of their more durable opponents on paper.
Go to Our Free Picks Weblog
These are only a fraction of our greatest bets all free on our new weblog. We can be including extra futures as we get nearer to the Cowboys-Eagles kickoff, in addition to offering our greatest bets for each NFL sport.
