NFL Week 1 picks, predictions, odds: Payments over Ravens, Lions shock Packers

Girls and gents, welcome to Season 13 of my NFL picks!

After I began making picks again in 2013, issues had been completely different: The Browns hadn’t received a division title since 1989, the Cowboys hadn’t been to the Tremendous Bowl since 1995 and the Jets had been in the midst of a playoff drought, however all of these streaks at the moment are over. Wait, nope. I stand corrected. The Browns nonetheless have not received a division title since 1989, the Cowboys nonetheless have not been to a Tremendous Bowl since 1995 and the Jets are nonetheless in the midst of a playoff drought. 

Time is a flat circle. 

Wager NFL Week 1 video games at DraftKings, the place new customers get $300 in bonus bets and over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket. Click on right here to get began:

The excellent news for the Browns is that this absolutely goes to be the 12 months the place their drought ends and I am basing my total idea on the truth that a man from Cleveland (Travis Kelce) simply bought engaged to essentially the most well-known singer on the planet (Taylor Swift). 

The whole lot is arising Cleveland this 12 months. 

Is that this really going to be the 12 months of the Browns? 

That is an important query, and also you can discover the reply by clicking right here to see my predictions for your entire 2025 NFL season. If you happen to click on over, you may see my closing report prediction for all 32 groups plus who I am choosing to make the playoffs and who I am taking to win the Tremendous Bowl LX. Spoiler alert: I am not taking the Browns.  

For these you clicking over to learn my predictions, we’ll wait right here till you get again. 

All proper, welcome again. Let’s get to the Week 1 picks. 

NFL Week 1 picks

Cowboys at Eagles 

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, Stream: Fubo, attempt without spending a dime)

If there’s one rule within the NFL that each staff ought to all the time observe, it is NEVER TRADE AWAY YOUR BEST DEFENSIVE PLAYER ONE WEEK BEFORE THE START OF THE SEASON. Jerry Jones broke that rule. 

Nice query, Micah. Nobody is aware of. 

I am not saying Jerry Jones is attempting to run the staff into the bottom, however I am additionally not not saying that. I’d say that sending Parsons to Inexperienced Bay was the worst commerce that anybody in Dallas has ever made, however that will be a lie as a result of the Mavericks exist. 

So how will the lack of Parsons affect this recreation? The Cowboys gave up the fourth-most dashing yards within the NFL final 12 months and I am unable to think about that quantity goes to enhance after the lack of Parsons. The primary check for the Cowboys protection will likely be Saquon Barkley and an Eagles dashing assault that averaged 179.3 yards per recreation final season, which ranked first within the NFC and second within the NFL. 

If the Eagles are sensible, they will simply give Barkley 49 carries on this recreation and name it an evening. The one probability the Cowboys need to win is that if Dak Prescott throws for 500 yards, which really may occur. Not solely will Dak be throwing to CeeDee Lamb, however the Cowboys even have George Pickens, who got here to Dallas in a commerce again in March (Somebody within the Cowboys’ entrance workplace ought to have taken Jerry’s cellphone away after that commerce so he could not make any extra offers). 

The Eagles secondary remains to be an enormous query mark, so Lamb and Pickens may each have huge video games. 

One different factor working within the Cowboys’ benefit is the truth that Prescott is 4-1 in his previous 5 begins in opposition to Eagles. On paper, the Eagles are positively the higher staff heading into Thursday, however I finished utilizing paper three years in the past, so I am not going to faux just like the Cowboys cannot pull off the upset right here. 

The Eagles will likely be elevating their Tremendous Bowl banner on Thursday night time and if the Cowboys by some means pull off the upset simply seven days after Jerry gave away Micah Parsons, we are going to by no means hear the tip of it. Jerry Jones will appear like a genius and I am unsure we’re able to reside in a world the place Jerry appears like a genius. For the nice of America, the Eagles must take down America’s Staff. 

THE PICK: Eagles 34-24 over Cowboys | Odds through Caesars Sportsbook, the place you may get 20 100% revenue boosts with the promo code CBS20X. Get began right here:

Friday, 8 p.m. ET (YouTube) in Sao Paulo, Brazil

This recreation will likely be proven on YouTube, marking the primary time ever that the streaming platform will likely be completely displaying an NFL recreation. I usually solely watch cat movies and previous episodes of “Saved by the Bell” on YouTube, so this will likely be a pleasant change of tempo for me.  

Anyway, the most effective half in regards to the NFL now taking part in an annual recreation in Brazil is that I get to remind you yearly about the truth that I performed an additional in a film that befell in Brazil. I used to be a practice passenger in “Quick 5” and I used to be so good that the Academy really considered introducing a brand new class for “Greatest practice passenger,” which I’d have been a lock to win as a result of nobody has ever performed a practice passenger higher, besides perhaps Brad Pitt in “Bullet Prepare.”

I am unsure if being in that film makes me an professional on all issues Brazil, however I will assume it does. And in terms of NFL video games in Brazil, I am additionally en professional there: I am 1-0 with my Brazilian picks. 

This looks like a recreation that is going to return all the way down to the play of every staff’s left deal with. For the Chargers, they used to have among the finest left tackles within the NFL in Rashawn Slater, however he suffered a season-ending harm in August when he tore his Patellar tendon. So now, the Chargers will likely be shifting their proper deal with from final season, Joe Alt, over to left deal with. And to fill Alt’s spot, they’re shifting their proper guard from final season, Trey Pipkins, to proper deal with. 

As for the Chiefs, the final time we noticed them on the sphere got here in Tremendous Bowl LIX in a recreation the place Patrick Mahomes bought destroyed. He was sacked six instances and an enormous motive that occurred is as a result of the Chief offensive line could not cease anybody. The Chiefs used 4 completely different left tackles final season, which is not best, as a result of that is not a place the place you wish to be utilizing 4 completely different gamers. To repair the issue, the Chiefs used a first-round decide on Josh Simmons, who will likely be making the primary begin of his profession on Friday. 

I totally count on that each quarterbacks will likely be dealing with fixed strain on this recreation, and in that state of affairs, I belief Mahomes barely greater than I belief Justin Herbert. OK, much more. 

Each staff that has ever received in Brazil has gone on to win the Tremendous Bowl that 12 months, in order that looks like an excellent factor for the Chiefs. 

THE PICK: Chiefs 23-20 over Chargers | Odds through DraftKings Sportsbook (the place new customers get $300 in bonus bets and over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket):

4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)

For the primary time in 25 years, the Packers are opening their season with a recreation on CBS. Does that make us the most important winner of the Micah Parsons commerce? Sure. I believe you might say that as a result of it signifies that we’ll be televising Micah Parsons’ first recreation with the Packers. However that is provided that he performs. 

The bizarre factor in regards to the Parsons commerce is that I am unsure Parsons is definitely going to assist the Packers his week. For one, he isn’t in soccer form as a result of he hasn’t practiced in almost three months. The one strategy to get into soccer form is to play soccer and by the point this recreation rolls round, Parsons will solely have 4 days of apply underneath his belt. Additionally, Parsons nonetheless has to study Inexperienced Bay’s total defensive playbook. And he has to do all that whereas battling a nasty again. 

Um, did Jerry Jones win this commerce? I may need to take again the whole lot about Jerry Jones earlier. Give that man the GM of the 12 months award. 

Based mostly on Parsons’ again state of affairs, I will be shocked if he is on the sphere for even 1 / 4 of the Packers’ defensive performs on this recreation, so mainly, for a minimum of this week, I do not assume Parsons goes to have a big impact. 

Final season, the Packers had been both the most effective dangerous staff or the worst good staff. I’ve had 9 months to consider it and I am nonetheless unsure. They went 11-1 in opposition to groups that completed with 10 wins or much less, however 0-6 in opposition to groups that received 11 video games or extra. Additionally they went simply 1-5 within the NFC North. 

One drawback for the Packers is that Matt LaFleur hasn’t been ready to determine methods to beat the Lions with Detroit successful six of the previous seven video games on this sequence.

The Lions positively have some query marks — they’ve to interchange each coordinators, they’ve a rookie at proper guard (Tate Ratledge) and their beginning middle retired — however they are going to have Aidan Hutchinson again and I really feel like his return will push Detroit to the win. 

The Lions have received three straight in Inexperienced Bay and in the event that they win this recreation, they could as properly change the identify of the stadium to “Lionbeau subject.” And sure, I am already working to trademark that. 

THE PICK: Lions 20-16 over Packers | Odds through FanDuel Sportsbook, the place new customers get $300 in bonus bets after a successful $5 wager:

4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)

Again in July, I used to be interested by choosing the Rams to win the Tremendous Bowl this 12 months, however then I came upon that Matthew Stafford at present has the again of an 87-year-old man, which could really be insulting to 87-year-old males. I really feel like this recreation — and the Rams’ total season — goes to return down as to if Matthew Stafford’s again can survive the beating it may take. 

What’s improper with Matthew Stafford’s again you ask? The whole lot. No less than, that is what it looks like. The Rams held their first apply of coaching camp on July 23, however Stafford wasn’t there as a consequence of his again. As a matter of reality, Stafford did not participate in a single apply with the staff in coaching camp till Aug. 18. Not solely that, however earlier than he began practising, he was spending half his time hanging out in a large camper that was noticed on the Rams’ apply facility. 

I am unsure what you had been informed Matt, however that appears like a souped up Airstream trailer and I’ve slept in sufficient Airstream trailers to know that they will not repair your again issues. If something, they solely make them worse. 

So Stafford has a nasty again and oh yea, he nonetheless hasn’t TAKEN A HIT this 12 months, so we do not know how his again goes to deal with that. 

If in case you have a nasty again, the Texans are in all probability the final staff you wish to be dealing with in Week 1. There have been solely 11 gamers within the NFL final season who totaled 11 sacks or extra and two of these guys are on Houston’s protection (Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter).

The Texans even have one of many few secondaries within the NFL that ought to have the ability to go toe-to-toe with Davante Adams and Puka Nacua, so even when Stafford’s again holds up, do not count on him to place up huge numbers. The opposite factor to love in regards to the Texans is that head coach DeMeco Ryans could be very familar with Sean McVay’s offense. Ryans spent two seasons because the 49ers‘ defensive coordinator and through these two years, the 49ers had a 4-0 regular-season report in opposition to the Rams whereas holding McVay’s offense to simply 14.25 factors per recreation.

THE PICK: Texans 19-17 over Rams | Odds through BetMGM, the place you may stand up to $1,500 again in bonus bets in case your first soccer wager loses:

8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, Stream: Fubo, attempt without spending a dime) 

I like each of those groups this 12 months and I do not wish to decide this recreation as a result of I do not wish to be compelled to select both of them to lose. If you happen to learn my season preview, you may discover that I am very excessive on each of those groups: 

• I’ve the Payments ending with the most effective report within the AFC
• I’ve Baltimore’s Mike Inexperienced successful Defensive Rookie of the 12 months
• I’ve one in every of these groups within the Tremendous Bowl

Did I point out all of that simply so I may plug me season preview once more? No. OK, to be trustworthy, sure I did. If you have not checked out my season preview, you are able to do that right here. 

The final time we noticed these two groups on the sphere collectively got here in January within the divisional spherical of the playoffs in a recreation that Buffalo ended up successful as a result of Mark Andrews forgot methods to catch a soccer. 

Ouch. That is painful. Sorry I made you watch that once more Ravens’ followers. 

Now, even when Andrews had caught that move, the Payments nonetheless would have had 1:33 to drive down for a game-winning subject aim, so there is not any assure that Baltimore would have received, so let’s not blame Andrews for the loss. As a substitute, I will credit score Payments’ coach Sean McDermott for the win. 

Earlier than taking the Payments’ head teaching job, McDermott spent eight years as an NFL defensive coordinator and it actually reveals at any time when the Payments face Lamar Jackson. Over the previous 5 years, Jackson has gone 1-3 in opposition to the Payments. In these 4 video games, he is turned the ball over a complete of six instances (4 interceptions, two misplaced fumbles) whereas averaging simply 179 yards passing per recreation (He is additionally rushed for a median of fifty yards per recreation). 

Within the Payments’ three wins, the Ravens have averaged simply 16 factors per recreation. There isn’t a stopping Lamar Jackson, however McDermott has actually discovered methods to sluggish him down. On the flip facet, the Ravens have additionally performed an excellent job of slowing down Josh Allen. The Payments QB had one in every of his worst video games of the season final 12 months in a 35-10 regular-season loss to the Ravens, however that recreation was in Baltimore. 

The one factor about Allen, who’s the reigning NFL MVP, is that he is been almost unbeatable in Buffalo: He is received 11 straight house begins within the common season and I really feel like he will push that streak to 12 on Sunday night time. 

THE PICK: Payments 30-23 over Ravens | Odds through FanDuel Sportsbook

NFL Week 1 picks: All the remaining

Buccaneers 27-24 over Falcons
Bengals 20-17 over Browns
Colts 19-16 over Dolphins
Patriots 23-16 over Raiders
Cardinals 31-13 over Saints
Steelers 24-13 over Jets
Commanders 26-23 over Giants
Jaguars 27-20 over Panthers
Broncos 30-10 over Titans
49ers 24-16 over Seahawks
Bears 22-19 over Vikings

Final Week 

Greatest decide:  If you happen to simply learn by way of all of my picks and also you’re now pondering, “Wow, I want I may learn this man every single day,” you are in luck, as a result of you may! I write the NFL publication right here at CBSSports.com and you may subscribe by clicking right here and getting into your e mail tackle. And do not be egocentric, be happy to enroll everybody you understand. You may as well observe me on the social media platform previously generally known as Twitter right here. By the way in which, that is often the half the place I brag to you about my finest decide from the previous week, however since there weren’t any regular-season video games final week, meaning there is not any finest decide for this part. 

Worst decide: Though I am going to have loads of “worst picks” for this part beginning subsequent week, I’ve nothing for you this week. Truly, I did make one fascinating determination this offseason. The Browns’ are utilizing unclaimed funds from the state of Ohio to construct their new stadium and I had $32 in unclaimed funds, so I let the individuals resolve whether or not I ought to declare the cash or donate it to the Browns’ stadium. 

By a vote of 74.1% to 25.9%, the individuals mentioned, “DON’T GIVE ANY MONEY TO THE BROWNS.” Sorry, Browns. Perhaps the whole lot is not arising Cleveland in any case. 

Closing 2024 picks report (together with playoffs)

Straight up: 189-96
In opposition to the unfold: 145-133-6

Closing 2023 picks report (together with playoffs)

Straight-up: 170-115
In opposition to the unfold: 146-129-10

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You could find John Breech on Fb or Twitter, and if he isn’t doing a type of issues, he is in all probability seeking to see if he has any unclaimed funds in every other states so he can then use the cash purchase a duplicate of Quick 5 as a marriage present for Travis and Taylor.