I really consider NFL Week 11 might go down as the most effective week of the common season. We get the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the Buffalo Payments, a rematch of that magical matchup between Joe Flacco and Aaron Rodgers from a number of weeks in the past, a battle between the 2 finest groups within the NFC with the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams, and a “Sunday Evening Soccer” showdown between the Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles.
As for my picks, I am actually shut to simply saying ignore the highest picks and comply with the “Different Week 11 picks” on the backside. Or simply comply with who I’ve successful straight up. I am 83-66 towards the unfold and a ridiculous 103-45-1 straight up whereas being 23-27 on my high picks.
I am sorry, however I believed the Carolina Panthers might cowl the unfold towards the worst against-the-spread group within the NFL final week and that the Pittsburgh Steelers might make the most of one of many worst offensive strains within the league. Nope.
Here is a take a look at what I am pondering this week. As at all times, credit score to the CBS Sports activities analysis group for making me sound good.
- High 5 picks ATS file: 23-27
- Total ATS file: 83-66
- Straight up file: 103-45-1
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Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Community, Stream: Fubo, strive totally free)
The Commanders have misplaced 4 straight video games by 21 factors, which tied the longest single-season streak since 1970. I do not care that Dan Quinn is taking on defensive play-calling duties from Joe Whitt, as a result of this secondary cannot cowl anybody and Daron Payne has been suspended after punching Amon-Ra St. Brown within the face.
Washington hasn’t coated the unfold in 5 straight video games, which is the longest energetic streak within the NFL. With the quantity below a area aim, I will take the group that simply upset Josh Allen and the Payments. De’Von Achane is already one of the vital explosive gamers in NFL historical past, and Jaylen Waddle has seemed nice as effectively.
The decide: Dolphins -2.5
Projected rating: Dolphins 23-17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, strive totally free)
This was an amazing week for the Giants. Not solely did Brian Daboll get fired, however the group promoted Jameis Winston over Russell Wilson. With Mike Kafka now in cost, it is time for the interim bump!
The Tennessee Titans did not get the interim bump once they fired Brian Callahan earlier this 12 months, however that is simply because they’re the Tennessee Titans. This Giants group has some expertise, and I am excited to see what Winston can do to spark the offense. I am not going to take New York to win this recreation straight up, however I’ll take the Giants to cowl the unfold vs. a group that misplaced to the Panthers in Week 9 after which scored simply seven factors at house in prime time on Monday night time. The Packers are 1-6 towards the unfold over the past seven video games.
The decide: Giants +7
Projected rating: Packers 21-20
The Giants’ subsequent coach will decide whether or not Jaxson Dart turns into a franchise savior or simply one other statistic
Ryan Wilson
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, strive totally free)
This decide is extra fading the Cardinals due to their accidents. The previous few days have been disastrous for the large receiving corps, as Zay Jones tore his Achilles, Marvin Harrison Jr. is recovering from appendicitis and Simi Fehoko suffered an arm harm that landed him on injured reserve. Meaning Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch, Xavier Weaver and Andre Baccellia are the one wholesome receivers for Jacoby Brissett.
It is ironic because the 49ers have been the strolling wounded all 12 months, however their harm report is definitely shorter than Arizona’s! The Cardinals have gained simply certainly one of their final seven video games, whereas the 49ers are 3-0 towards the unfold following a loss this season.
The decide: 49ers -3
Projected rating: 49ers 27-20
Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, Stream: Fubo, strive totally free)
I’ve stated it a number of occasions this week. With regards to this recreation, I am taking the extra explosive group. I am taking the Lions to outscore the Eagles — who managed only one landing final week towards the Packers. A.J. Brown is complaining concerning the offense, and I’d be too.
The Lions are an NFL-best 12-6 towards the unfold as an underdog over the previous 4 seasons, and Dan Campbell has the most effective cowl share (65%) by a head coach since 1970. Detroit can also be an NFL-best 13-2 in prime time over the past 4 seasons. I merely have extra religion within the Lions’ weapons with Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams.
The decide: Lions +2.5
Projected rating: Lions 33-28
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, Stream: Fubo, strive totally free)
This would be the first time the Cowboys take the sphere with out their brother Marshawn Kneeland following his tragic passing. This Dallas protection has been one of many worst models within the NFL this season, however I wager it has its most spectacular efficiency of the 12 months in Vegas to honor its teammate.
Much like Lions at Eagles, I’ll take the higher offense to easily outscore the opposite. Dallas has averaged probably the most factors per recreation (29.2) by a group with a unfavorable level differential (-14) by way of 9 video games in NFL historical past. Can Geno Smith and Ashton Jeanty sustain? The Raiders have scored 29 factors simply as soon as all season. I consider Dak Prescott’s group comes out firing and covers the unfold.
The decide: Cowboys -3.5
Projected rating: Cowboys 28-21
Different Week 11 picks
Patriots (-12.5) 30-10 over Jets
Falcons (-3.5) 21-16 over Panthers
Chargers (-3) 24-20 over Jaguars
Steelers 28-24 over Bengals (+5.5)
Payments 29-27 over Buccaneers (+5.5)
Vikings (-2.5) 28-23 over Bears
Texans (-5.5) 24-17 over Titans
Rams (-3) 30-24 over Seahawks
Ravens (-7.5) 27-17 over Browns
Chiefs 24-21 over Broncos (+3.5)
