It is Thanksgiving week, so seize some turkey, get a bath of cranberry sauce and let’s get able to make some picks. Really, I do not even like turkey and cranberry sauce is the worst, so I take again every part I simply stated. On the subject of Thanksgiving, I solely eat three issues: Pumpkin pie, apple pie and grapes, however the grapes have ideally been fermented and became wine by the point they get to me.
I am undecided what number of glasses of wine I will be having on Thursday, however I do know what number of soccer video games I will be watching: THREE. Usually, that quantity is nearer to 2, as a result of I normally nap throughout no less than one recreation, however there will likely be no napping this 12 months as a result of the schedule is just too loaded.
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As we head into Thanksgiving, virtually each fan base has one thing to be grateful for and that is the truth that 31 of the 32 NFL groups are nonetheless mathematically alive for the playoffs. Even the 1-10 Titans might nonetheless get in. Then again, when you’re celebrating Thanksgiving with a Giants fan, please give them a hug, as a result of their staff is the one one which’s been eradicated from playoff competition to this point.
I do not need to make Giants followers sadder than they already are, so let’s simply get to the picks.
Prisco’s Week 13 NFL picks: Chiefs high Cowboys in high-scoring recreation; Ravens edge Bengals
Pete Prisco
Really, earlier than we get to the Week 13 picks, this is a fast reminder you can take a look at the weekly picks from each CBSSports.com NFL knowledgeable by clicking right here. Additionally, as chances are you’ll or might not know, I am answerable for the NFL publication right here at CBSSports.com, which I am solely telling you about as a result of it makes the proper vacation reward and it additionally brings individuals collectively. As an example, if you cannot be with your loved ones for Thanksgiving, then simply signal them up for the publication after which you may learn it collectively and it’ll really feel such as you’re in the identical room as them, besides probably not. To subscribe, all you should do is click on right here and enter an electronic mail deal with.
Alright, let’s get to the Turkey Day version of the picks!
NFL Week 13 picks
Inexperienced Bay (7-3-1) at Detroit (7-4)
Thursday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, , Fubo — strive without spending a dime)
I am not going to inform you the right way to plan your Thanksgiving, however primarily based on how the NFL schedule appears to be like for Thursday, I might go forward and begin consuming dinner at 9:30 a.m. ET. Based mostly on my math, that provides you two hours to eat, then you may take one other half-hour for dessert, after which take a one hour nap so that you will be able to roll by the point this recreation kicks off at 1 p.m. ET. And when you want one thing to be grateful for, we are able to all thank Roger Goodell for shifting the kickoff time of the primary recreation from 12:30 p.m. ET to 1 p.m. ET this 12 months. It is a small change, however that is 30 additional minutes of consuming pumpkin pie.
To me, this recreation feels just like the unofficial NFC North title recreation. Sure, I do know the Bears are literally in first place, however their schedule is a ticking time bomb. Over their last six video games, they play 5 groups that at the moment have seven wins or extra. Their solely “simple” recreation is towards the Browns, a staff which may sack Caleb Williams 19 instances. The Bears may make the playoffs as a wild card staff, however I do not assume they’ll win the division, which leaves us with the winner of this recreation.
The Lions are favored to win, however I feel that is solely as a result of the oddsmakers had been taking photographs of potato vodka earlier than setting the purpose unfold. Potato vodka is the proper Thanksgiving drink, however it’s not good for setting level spreads. My drawback with the Lions is that they’re enjoying a very good protection and so they haven’t proven me that they’ll persistently beat groups which have a very good protection.
There are 9 groups within the NFL which have given up lower than 21 factors per recreation this 12 months. The Lions have confronted three of these groups and so they’ve gone 0-3 in these video games. Let’s check out what occurred in these three video games:
Week 1: Packers 27-13 over Lions
Week 6: Chiefs 30-17 over Lions
Week 11: Eagles 16-9 over Lions
Not solely are they 0-3, however they have been outscored 73-39 and so they’re averaging simply 13 factors per recreation. In all three of those video games, the Lions had been held beneath 100 yards dashing and once they cannot run the ball, that places all of the strain on Jared Goff. Goff is an effective quarterback, however he appears to wrestle at instances when he is pressured to hold the staff. Goff acquired sacked a complete of seven instances in these three video games, together with 4 instances in Detroit’s season-opening loss to Inexperienced Bay.
In that Week 1 recreation, Micah Parsons had practiced roughly thrice and he did not know the Packers’ protection but, however Inexperienced Bay nonetheless managed to close down the Lions. The excellent news for the Lions is that even when they do not rating a number of factors, they’ll nonetheless win as a result of Inexperienced Bay’s offense has forgotten the right way to transfer the ball by way of the air. The Packers’ have not seemed the identical since dropping Tucker Kraft to a season-ending harm in Week 9. In three video games with out Kraft, Jordan Love is averaging simply 163 passing yards per recreation.
If this turns right into a defensive battle, I feel the Packers win. If this turns right into a shootout, I feel the Lions win. Of their previous 9 Thanksgiving video games, the Lions have not topped 25 factors a single time, so I’ll go forward and say a shootout would not occur.
Turkey will not be the one factor swallowed on Thursday, Goff goes to get swallowed up by the Packers protection.
PICK: Packers 20-17 over Lions | Packers +2.5 | Odds through DraftKings Sportsbook
Kansas Metropolis (6-5) at Dallas (5-5-1)
Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Final 12 months, we acquired Tommy DeVito vs. Cooper Rush within the Cowboys‘ recreation on Thanksgiving, and the NFL clearly felt dangerous about that, as a result of this 12 months, we’re getting probably the perfect Thanksgiving recreation of all-time with Dak Prescott and the Cowboys going through Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
I nonetheless have nightmares concerning the DeVito-Rush recreation, however I feel this matchup will assist me lastly recover from that. This recreation is giving us two groups that each saved their season on Sunday: The Chiefs got here again from an 11-point deficit within the fourth quarter to beat the Colts in additional time after which Dallas one-upped them by pulling off a good wilder comeback. The Cowboys beat the Eagles 24-21 in a recreation the place they had been trailing 21-0 at one level. The Chiefs’ win was the largest fourth quarter comeback of Mahomes’ profession whereas the Cowboys’ win was the most important comeback in any recreation in franchise historical past, and now, we’re getting these two groups in a playoff recreation.
OK, this is not technically a playoff recreation, however it may really feel prefer it, as a result of neither staff can afford to lose. Usually, if there is a staff in a must-win state of affairs and the Chiefs are concerned, I am robotically taking them, however I am undecided if I can try this this week. For one, this recreation is in Dallas. The Chiefs have been horrible on the street this 12 months, going 1-4 and their solely win got here towards the Giants, so I am not even positive it counts (Sorry, Giants followers. Did not imply to pull you into this. Between this and the entire playoff elimination factor, you are simply catching strays from me right now).
The Chiefs are 0-2 on the street this 12 months within the month of November and a giant cause they have not gained away from Kansas Metropolis is as a result of Patrick Mahomes hasn’t seemed like Patrick Mahomes.
Within the two losses, Mahomes has accomplished simply 55.7% of his passes with two interceptions and only one TD move. For a very good chunk of the season, Mahomes has been enjoying like he would not totally belief his receivers or perhaps he would not belief his offensive line or perhaps it is each. I can not fairly inform which one, however it’s undoubtedly having an affect on what the Chiefs are in a position to do on offense. To make issues worse, the Chiefs will not have Professional Bowl proper guard Trey Smith and that is the worst time to be lacking your Professional Bowl proper guard as a result of the Cowboys defensive position has been additional dominant since including Quinnen Williams on Nov. 4.
Williams is a human wrecking ball.
Williams is so dominant, he can get you 40% off of a Professional Soccer Focus subscription.
Going into the commerce deadline, the Cowboys had given up the fourth-most dashing yards per recreation this 12 months (142.7) and the second most factors per recreation (30.7). Within the two video games since including Williams, the Cowboys are 2-0 and so they’ve surrender simply 45 dashing yards and 18.5 factors per recreation. I do not need to name Jerry Jones a genius, however the man is clearly enjoying 4-D chess whereas the remainder of us are consuming on the children’ desk on Thanksgiving. Really, I take that again, Jones damage the staff by buying and selling Micah Parsons, which led to the Cowboys having the worst protection within the NFL by way of the primary eight weeks after which he tried to save lots of face by including Williams. This is among the uncommon cases the place the individual making an attempt to save lots of face might need really saved his face.
This might find yourself being essentially the most watched common season recreation in NFL historical past so I can not probably choose towards America’s Group when most of America goes to be watching.
PICK: Cowboys 31-24 over Chiefs | Cowboys +3 | Odds through BetMGM
Cincinnati (3-8) at Baltimore (6-5)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
I am undecided what you are grateful for this 12 months, however I am guessing everybody at NBC is grateful that Joe Burrow is returning for this recreation. On paper, there’s virtually no cause to observe a 3-8 staff play a 6-5 staff this late within the season, however with the return of Burrow, this robotically turns into must-see TV. And we all know Burrow is enjoying as a result of he introduced it on Instagram by sharing a highschool picture of himself in a LeBron James Cavaliers jersey.
Does it appear a little bit loopy for the Bengals to deliver Burrow again throughout what seems to be misplaced season? Sure, however it’s not utterly loopy, as a result of the Bengals play within the division that nobody desires to win. Here is what the AFC North at the moment appears to be like like together with every staff’s remaining schedule:
1. Ravens (6-5) — Bengals, Steelers, at Bengals, Patriots, at Packers, at Steelers
2. Steelers (6-5) — Payments, at Ravens, Dolphins, at Lions, at Browns, Ravens
3. Bengals (3-8) — at Ravens, at Payments, Ravens, Dolphins, Cardinals, Browns
4. Browns (3-8) — 49ers, Titans, at Bears, Payments, Steelers, at Bengals
The Bengals nonetheless should play the Ravens twice and in the event that they pull off a sweep towards Baltimore, that basically places them proper again within the division race. I am not saying it may occur, I am simply saying that throwing Burrow on the market this week is a Hail Mary play that might repay.
In Burrow’s first recreation again, he’ll get to face a Ravens protection that is surrendering 230.1 passing yards per recreation this 12 months, which ranks within the backside 10 within the NFL. Baltimore’s protection has actually seemed higher over the previous three weeks, however it’s arduous to say if that is precise enchancment or if that is simply occurred as a result of their final three video games have come towards Tyrod Taylor (Jets), Dillon Gabriel (Browns) and J.J. McCarthy (Vikings).
I don’t know what Burrow goes to appear like after two months away, however even a rusty Burrow is an improve over these three quarterbacks. And let’s not neglect, Burrow may have Ja’Marr Chase, who was suspended for Cincinnati’s recreation towards New England on Sunday.
Even with Chase and Burrow, you may’t totally belief the Bengals due to their protection. They have not been in a position to cease anybody this 12 months, however this week, they get to face a Ravens’ offense that has gotten actual good at stopping itself. Over the previous three weeks, Lamar Jackson hasn’t seemed like Lamar Jackson. Since Week 10, he hasn’t topped 200 passing yards a single time, he has extra interceptions (2) than landing passes (1) and his completion proportion has been under 60% (57.1%). He additionally appears hesitant to run: Jackson has averaged simply 14.8 dashing yards per recreation since getting back from his hamstring harm in Week 9.
The Bengals are going to be determined and I feel they’ll get a spark from Burrow’s return, however I am undecided that spark goes to be fairly sufficiently big to tug off the upset right here.
PICK: Ravens 27-24 over Bengals | Bengals +7 |Odds through Caesars Sportsbook, the place new customers get 20 100% revenue boosts with the code CBS20X:
Chicago (8-3) at Philadelphia (8-3)
Friday, 3 p.m. ET (Prime)
The Black Friday recreation is again! I’ve made it an annual custom to observe this recreation on my telephone from a mall parking zone in order that I get the complete Black Friday really feel and I extremely recommend that you simply guys all do the identical.
Anyway, we’re headed into Week 13 and I nonetheless don’t know if the Bears are any good. Sure, they’re 8-3, however solely a kind of eight wins has come towards a staff that is at the moment above .500 and that lone win got here on Sunday towards a Steelers staff that did not have Aaron Rodgers. Additionally, the Bears have been collectively outscored by their opponents this 12 months, which makes them simply the third staff in NFL historical past to win eight of their first 11 video games regardless of having a damaging level differential.
I am not saying the Bears are frauds, however I am not saying they are not. The Bears have performed 4 video games this 12 months towards groups which are over .500 and so they’ve gone 1-3 in these video games, which might pose an issue down the stretch, as a result of 5 of their last six video games are towards groups who’re all no less than THREE video games over .500. Oh, and when you make the playoffs, you may in all probability be going through a staff that is over .500.
This recreation goes to inform us quite a bit about each groups. The Bears have been fairly good this 12 months, but when there’s one factor they’ve struggled with, it is stopping the run. They’ve given up a median of 138.1 dashing yards per recreation, which is the fifth-most within the NFL. The Eagles are 5-0 this season once they high 100 yards and this ought to be the proper recreation for them to as soon as once more hit that quantity. If the Eagles cannot get Saquon Barkley going towards this protection, they could simply need to surrender on operating the ball for the remainder of the season.
The Eagles really seemed like they gave up on operating the ball (and passing the ball) towards the Cowboys. Philly blew a 21-0 lead in Week 12 and that largely occurred as a result of the offense did not rating a single level over the ultimate 40 minutes of the sport. They went seven straight possessions with out scoring and if that Eagles staff reveals up, then the Bears are going to win, however I do not assume that Eagles staff goes to point out up.
PICK: Eagles 27-17 over Bears | Eagles -7 | Odds through FanDuel Sportsbook
Houston (6-5) at Indianapolis (8-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
If I’ve realized one factor this month, it is that the Colts’ whole season is a home of playing cards and it might collapse at any time. When the month of November began, the Colts had been 7-1 and so they seemed like a lock to win the AFC South, however over the previous three weeks, Daniel Jones has became the Daniel Jones that most individuals thought he could be when he gained the beginning job. You understand how the primary three Indiana Jones films are all good, however then the final two had been simply OK? That is Daniel Jones proper now. He acquired off to a scorching begin, however now, he is simply OK. He is thrown 4 interceptions over the previous three weeks, and in a loss to the Chiefs, he threw for simply 181 yards.
With the sport on the road within the fourth quarter towards Kansas Metropolis, Jones went simply 2 of 8 for 13 yards. That is not best.
The Colts have misplaced two of their previous three whereas the Texans have gained three video games in a row, which has put Houston proper again within the race for the AFC South title. Let’s check out the highest three spots within the standings:
1. Colts (8-3)
2. Jaguars (7-4)
3. Texans (6-5)
(The Titans additionally exist, however let’s not fear about them).
The Colts have not imploded but, however that will likely be dangerously near taking place in the event that they lose this recreation. If the Colts need to win on Sunday, all they should do is determine the right way to transfer the ball towards the perfect protection in NFL. The Texans have given up the fewest yards per recreation (264.3), the second-fewest factors per recreation (16.5), the third-fewest passing yards per recreation (172.1) and the fifth-fewest dashing yards per recreation (92.2). Additionally they have 33 sacks on the season and so they had been so good in Week 12 that they made Josh Allen appear like a Division II faculty quarterback.
This appears like a recreation the place the Colts will attempt to get Jonathan Taylor going, however the Texans will likely be prepared for that, which suggests if Indy goes to win, Daniel Jones goes to have to come back up large. Three weeks in the past, I trusted him. I used to be ingesting the Daniel Jones Kool-Support, however it tasted a little bit humorous, so I spit it out, which is nearly becoming, as a result of I really feel just like the Texans are going to chew him up and spit him out on Sunday.
PICK: Texans 19-16 over Colts | Texans +4.5 | Odds through BetMGM
NFL Week 13 picks: All the remainder
49ers 20-16 over Browns
Jaguars 24-17 over Titans
Dolphins 30-16 over Saints
Falcons 23-16 over Jets
Cardinals 20-17 over Buccaneers
Rams 30-20 over Panthers
Seahawks 31-13 over Vikings
Payments 30-20 over Steelers
Chargers 27-20 over Raiders
Broncos 23-16 over Commanders
Patriots 26-23 over Giants
Final Week
Finest choose: Final week, I predicted that Shedeur Sanders would lead the Browns to a win over the Raiders in his first profession begin and guess what occurred? Shedeur Sanders led the Browns to a win over the Raiders in his first profession begins. Now, did I do know that Geno Smith was going to get sacked 10 instances? After all, I did. In the event you’ve watched the Raiders offense play in any respect this season, it was fairly clear that was going to occur. Each time the Raiders have run a play this season, one thing dangerous appears to occur. On each play, it appears to be like like everyone seems to be confused about what they’re imagined to do, which could clarify why Chip Kelly acquired fired.
The excellent news for the Raiders is that by firing Kelly, they’re now one step nearer to a future Tremendous Bowl look.
The dangerous information for the Raiders is that they are now 2-9, which suggests for the twenty first time over the previous 23 years, they will not be ending above .500.
Worst choose: In the event you want one thing to be grateful for this week, simply be grateful that you simply’re not a Cardinals fan. The Playing cards have misplaced 5 video games this 12 months by 4 factors or much less, and for some cause, I assumed perhaps they may win an in depth recreation, so I picked them to beat the Jaguars final week, and that blew up in my face. The Cardinals had an opportunity to win the sport in regulation, however apparently, nobody defined to the offense how a spike is meant to work. After a giant play acquired Arizona all the way down to Jacksonville’s 11-yard line, the Playing cards might have spiked the ball to cease the clock, however as a substitute, they did the other of what each different staff within the NFL would do on this state of affairs: They let the clock run.
Trevor Lawrence turned the ball over 4 instances, however the Cardinals misplaced as a result of they do not perceive clock administration. That is normally the place I’d say “I am by no means selecting them to win one other recreation,” however I am selecting them once more this week. I clearly hate myself.
Lastly, when you guys have ever questioned which groups I am really good at selecting, I’ll begin sharing that info with you now that we have got 12 full weeks of knowledge. Here is a fast take a look at my greatest groups on the subject of picks this 12 months.
Groups I am 10-1 selecting this 12 months (Straight up): Titans, Raiders
Groups I am 9-2 selecting this 12 months (Straight up): Seahawks, Rams, Saints, Broncos, Colts
Longest profitable streak: Raiders (10 straight video games picked appropriately)
Groups I am the worst at selecting: Chiefs (4-7)
Longest dropping streak: Jaguars (Three straight video games picked incorrectly)
Picks Report
Straight up in Week 12: 10-4
SU general: 114-63-1
In opposition to the unfold in Week 12: 12-2
ATS general: 87-91
You’ll find John Breech on Fb or Twitter, and if he isn’t doing a kind of issues, he is in all probability hiding a complete pumpkin pie in his fridge so he would not should share it along with his children.
