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Through 14 weeks of the NFL season, the Rams are favorites in Super Bowl odds. While not fully a shocker, it also wasn’t on most bookmakers’ or bettors’ preseason bingo cards.
Los Angeles is 10-3 straight up (SU) and 9-4 against the spread (ATS), a good money-maker for bettors — if they bothered to get on board. Which surprisingly, they haven’t.
But that’s starting to change with NFL Week 15 odds.
“The Rams are quietly just a very good team,” Caesars Sports head of trading Joey Feazel said. “It’s only as of now that the public is finally starting to get on them. The Rams are starting to catch the public’s eye a little bit.”
There’ll be a ton of public eyes on the Rams on Sunday, when they host the Lions in America’s Game of the Week on FOX.
Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on that matchup and more, as we dive into NFL Week 15 betting nuggets.
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NFL Rocks on FOX
If the playoffs began today, the Rams would be the No. 1 seed in the NFC, though they’re tied with the Seahawks for the conference’s best record. Preseason, most observers thought it would be the Lions or the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles leading the way.
But Detroit and Philly have both been wobbly at times. And the Lions (8-5 SU/7-6 ATS) are in a division that won’t allow for wobbles, as they look up at the Packers and Bears.
“This is a big game with big implications. The Rams are trying to stave off the Seahawks for the No. 1 seed, and the Lions are just trying to stay in contention for the playoffs,” Feazel said.
Caesars opened the Rams as 4.5-point favorites for this 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday showdown on FOX. Los Angeles has since stretched out to -5 and now -5.5 (-115) as of Wednesday afternoon.
Early action is seeing some bettors back the Rams on the point spread, while others back the Lions on the moneyline at +215, pulling for a Detroit upset.
“We’re seeing it trend toward a need for that Super Bowl middle: A Rams win and a Lions cover,” Feazel said, before noting where the real interest is on this tilt. “We’re seeing a really good amount of Over action.”
On last week’s look-ahead lines, Caesars opened the total at 50.5. On Sunday night, the total reopened at 52.5, and it’s now all the way up to 55.5, matching the highest total of the season.
“The anticipation is for a lot of offense, that Lions coach Dan Campbell will roll it all out there,” Feazel said. “Bettors will be really engaged on same-game parlays, betting on touchdown scorers. This has the potential to be like that Chiefs-Rams game in 2018.”
To remind: That contest saw the Rams hang on at home in a wild 54-51 victory.
“It’s gonna be a really well-bet game,” Feazel said.
AFC East Beasts
The Patriots are a far more surprising team than the Rams. Coming off a pair of 4-13 seasons, no one could’ve foreseen New England tied for the AFC lead at 11-2 SU, nor being a pretty good bet at 9-4 ATS.
But oddsmakers and bettors aren’t fully buying in on the Pats, either.
New England went on the road and beat Buffalo 23-20 in the Week 5 Sunday night game. That was the second victory in what’s now a 10-game win streak for the Patriots (7-3 ATS).
Yet the Bills opened as 1.5-point road favorites in this Sunday’s 1 p.m. ET clash. Buffalo (9-4 SU/6-7 ATS) has since toggled between -1.5/-1 at Caesars and is -1 as of Wednesday afternoon.
“This is a revenge spot for the Bills, and the Patriots are coming off their bye,” Feazel said. “But similar to the Bears, I don’t think everybody believes in the Patriots. We’re seeing more Bills money coming in.
“I expect a lot more action by kickoff, with a decent amount of it on the Bills. The Patriots have a chance to prove they are really good. New England hasn’t beaten many big teams but has beaten the Bills already, in a big spot.”
NFL Sharp Side
Professional bettor Randy McKay rode the Texans to point-spread wins each of the past two weeks. Houston actually won outright as a road underdog both times, at Indianapolis and at Kansas City.
McKay is going with another underdog this week, albeit a home one: Bengals +2.5 vs. the Ravens in a 1 p.m. ET Sunday kickoff.
“I trust the Bengals not to beat themselves, like Baltimore has recently,” McKay said, alluding to the Ravens losing their last two games. “The market still likes Baltimore, but getting points here at home is an extra benefit.”
Non-Conference Clash
In another big 4:25 p.m. ET contest, the red-hot Broncos host the surging Packers.
Denver (11-2 SU/5-8 ATS) is on a 10-game win streak, however, Bo Nix & Co. failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games, including twice against the cellar-dwelling Raiders (2-11 SU/5-8 ATS).
Caesars opened the Packers (9-3-1 SU/6-7 ATS) as 1.5-point road favorites in NFL Week 15 odds. That line moved to Green Bay -2.5 in short order, sticking there since Monday afternoon.
“The Broncos aren’t treated as a top team, despite their record,” Feazel said. “Still, we’re seeing a little more Broncos money at this point. But I expect two-way action as we get toward the weekend.”
The total is actually getting more interest so far this week. Caesars opened it at 41.5 and is up to 43.
“These are two of the best defenses in the league, so we’ve got a low total, which is drawing Over money so far,” Feazel said.
Seeking Chiefs Relief
A few weeks ago, the Chiefs were 5-4 SU and ATS, yet were still atop oddsboard to win the Super Bowl. That’s how much faith oddsmakers had in Kansas City, when looking at the schedule for the second half of the season.
However, the Chiefs are now a surprising 6-7 SU and ATS, on the brink of elimination from playoff contention. Caesars still opened K.C. -5.5 for Sunday’s 1 p.m. ET kickoff vs. the Chargers, but that line dipped as low as -4, before setting at -4.5.
It appears the public is finally off the Patrick Mahomes bandwagon.
“Week in and week out, the Chiefs are one of our biggest-bet teams. But this is the first week where we have seen a fade of the Chiefs,” Feazel said. “We’ve got more anti-Chiefs money than we’ve seen in the past.
“It’s one-way traffic. The public is coming in on the Chargers.”
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
At the end of October, the Colts were riding high with a record of 7-1 SU and a money-making 6-2 ATS mark, as well. Since then, though, Indianapolis has dumped four of five SU and ATS and is now 8-5 SU/7-6 ATS.
Making matters worse, QB Daniel Jones — reviving his career in Indy — suffered a season-ending Achilles tear in last week’s 36-19 loss at Jacksonville.
Desperate times call for desperate measures. Like signing 44-year-old Philip Rivers to the practice squad. And betting the Colts moneyline as big road underdogs against the Seahawks this Sunday.
That’s what a Caesars Sports customer did, putting $25,000 on Indy +525 to upset Seattle (10-3 SU and ATS).
If the Colts somehow pull the upset (and who knows, Rivers could possibly play in this game) then the bettor banks a profit of $131,250, for a total payout of $156,250.
You’ve got to respect somebody with that kind of faith. And it’s got to be nice to have that kind of money to back up that faith, though I certainly wouldn’t recommend it. Good luck on Sunday!
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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