Oil Majors Brace for Dividend Drought as Sub-$70 Crude Bites

Sub-$70 oil is squeezing margins, forcing Exxon, Chevron, and BP to rethink $100 billion in annual returns.

Dividends to Dry Up as Sub-$70 Crude Squeezes Supermajors

– Amidst fears of oversupply and tariff-impacted demand slowdown, world oil majors are extensively anticipated to begin slicing their shareholder payouts as sub-70 oil costs loom massive over the horizon.

– Most majors want oil costs above $80 per barrel to maintain present ranges of dividends and share buybacks, with France’s TotalEnergies already flagging that it’ll scale back buybacks from This autumn 2025 onwards.

– Most US oil companies have been primarily targeted on job cuts recently, with ExxonMobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips asserting vital layoffs (the previous to the extent of 20-25% of world workforce).

– 5 main supermajors (Chevron, ExxonMobil, BP, Shell and TotalEnergies) are about to spend $108.5 billion on shareholder returns this yr, solely barely decrease than the 2024 complete of $112 billion, despite the fact that Brent has averaged $70 per barrel this yr, down from $80 per barrel in 2024.

– ExxonMobil and Chevron are anticipated to begin the Q3 2025 earnings name timeline on October 25.

Market Movers

– US oil main Chevron (NYSE:CVX) is reportedly looking for to divest $2 billion value of pipeline property in Colorado’s Denver-Julesburg shale basin, largely inherited from its 2020 takeover of Noble Power and its midstream enterprise.

– US LNG developer Excelerate Power (NYSE:EE) has been appointed by the Authorities of Iraq to develop the nation’s first each floating LNG import terminal to spice up home energy technology and scale back Baghdad’s reliance on Iranian piped gasoline.

– Italy’s oil main ENI (BIT:ENI) has resumed offshore exploration drilling in Libya after a 5-year break induced initially by the COVID-19 pandemic after which by safety issues, spudding the BESS-3 properly in Block 16/4.

– US oil main ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) is in talks to re-enter the African nation of Gabon, with an exploration settlement doubtlessly masking as many as six offshore blocks anticipated to be signed this month.

Tuesday, October 07, 2025

Hypothesis about OPEC+ unleashing triple or quadruple the standard 137,000 b/d provide hikes turned out to be unfaithful, with the comparatively small month-over-month improve prompting a fast upward correction for oil as ICE Brent has traded round $65 per barrel this week. A full restoration to $70 per barrel is unlikely, thoug,h as booming crude exports elevate the prospect of main stock builds over the upcoming weeks.

OPEC+ Goes For Modest Hikes. OPEC+ agreed to lift output from November by 137,000 b/d, sticking to the identical month-to-month increment as in October, with media reviews suggesting the group’s prime producers, Saudi Arabia and Russia, have more and more differing views on the tempo of hikes.

Aramco Freezes Costs on OPEC+ Hike. Defying expectations of a small improve from October costs, Saudi Arabia’s oil agency Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) rolled over the November costs of its benchmark Arab Gentle grade to Asian consumers, setting $2.20 per barrel above the Oman/Dubai common.

Denmark to Tighten Baltic Sea Checks. Looking for to clamp down on shadow tankers passing via the Danish Straits, a part of the 4.5 million b/d of complete flows coming from the Baltic Sea space, Denmark has pledged to tighten environmental checks on ships as many are older than 20 years.

Iran Declares Large Gasoline Discover. The Iranian Oil Minister introduced the invention of 10 TCf new pure gasoline reserves and 200 MMbbls of oil within the onshore Pazan discipline, the continuation of a 2015 discovery that wasn’t correctly appraised again then, aiming to begin manufacturing by 2030.

Indian Gas Demand Disappoints. India’s gasoline consumption dipped to 18.63 million metric tonnes in September, declining by 0.5% month-over-month and posting the weakest lead to a yr, as larger home ethanol mixing necessities (switching to E20 in August) freed up gasoline for exports.

China to Construct New Refinery in Ethiopia. Ethiopia has formalized its plans to construct its first ever refinery, a 70,000 b/d plant within the jap city of Gode, coming into a partnership with China’s Golden Harmony Group, looking for to fulfill 70% of the African nation’s present gasoline necessities.

IEA Slashes Renewable Energy Outlook. The Worldwide Power Company lowered its forecast for renewable electrical energy development by 2030 to 4,600 GW, down 248 GW in comparison with its earlier outlook, citing the US phaseout of federal tax incentives and China’s transfer away from fixed-tariff contracts.

China’s SPR Bonanza Exhibits No Indicators of Stopping. China’s nationwide oil corporations are constructing 11 new crude oil storage websites throughout the nation in 2025-2026, including not less than 169 million barrels of extra strategic storage, of which 37 million barrels has been already constructed and commissioned.

$4,000 Is the Subsequent Cease for Gold. Gold costs continued their unprecedented rally because the bullion hit $3,978 per ounce in intra-day buying and selling on Tuesday, with December gold futures already buying and selling the as soon as impenetrable 4,000/oz threshold amidst intense political turmoil in France and Japan.

Japan’s To-Be PM Scares Markets. Japan’s renewable shares similar to Renova (TYO:9519) noticed double-digit inventory drops this week after Sanae Takaichi grew to become the almost certainly candidate to grow to be prime minister, calling for much less foreign-built clear power expertise and extra regionally sourced nuclear.

Ukraine Mulls Increased Gasoline Imports. Ukraine will likely be compelled to elevate pure gasoline imports by 30% after its major upstream websites incurred heavy injury from Russia’s bombardments final week, having 13 bcm in storage amenities at present however needing extra 6 bcm forward of the heating season.

Congo Raises the Stakes for Cobalt Exports. Congo’s President Felix Tshisekedi has warned all mining companies working within the nation that exporters that violate its quotas will likely be completely banned, as the brand new system that caps 2026 exports at 96,600 tonnes kicks in October 16.

Russian Oil Corporations Pitch Yuan Crude Gross sales. Looking for to use the current thaw in Indo-Chinese language relations, Russian oil sellers have begun asking Indian refiners to pay for crude purchases in Chinese language yuan, with IOC reported to have purchased three cargoes of Urals denominated in Chinese language forex.

By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com

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