One Nation Takes Primary Vote Lead in Recent Polling
Recent national polling indicates a significant shift in voter sentiment, with One Nation now leading the primary vote in two major surveys. The party has overtaken Labor in the latest Redbridge and YouGov polls and is running neck-and-neck with Labor in a Morgan poll. While Labor maintains a primary vote lead in the Fox & Hedgehog poll, the combined support for One Nation and the Coalition shows a strong performance from the right bloc across all surveyed demographics.
Key Poll Findings Emerge
Analysis of four recent federal polls reveals One Nation’s growing appeal. In the Redbridge poll, One Nation secured 31% of the primary vote, a four-point increase since late April, while Labor saw a three-point decline to 28%. The Coalition garnered 20%, the Greens 12%, and Others 9%. By respondent preferences, Labor held a narrow 51-49 lead over One Nation and the Coalition, indicating a four-point gain for One Nation and a three-point gain for the Coalition in this preference flow.
Similarly, a YouGov poll showed One Nation at 29% primary vote, up four points, compared to Labor’s 26%. The Coalition was at 20%, Greens at 13%, and independents at 6%. In this poll, Labor led One Nation by 52.5% to 47.5% in respondent preferences.
The Fox & Hedgehog poll presented a different picture, with Labor leading the primary vote at 29%, followed closely by One Nation at 27% and the Coalition at 25%. However, the combined primary vote for the right-wing parties (One Nation and Coalition) reached 52% in this poll, their highest across the surveyed groups. In terms of respondent preferences, the Coalition edged out Labor 51-49, marking the first time this poll has shown a Coalition lead.
A Morgan poll placed Labor and One Nation in a tie for the primary vote lead at 27% each. The Coalition was at 20%, Greens at 13.5%, and Others at 12.5%. One Nation’s support has shown consistent weekly growth in Morgan’s polls since the federal budget was announced.
Budget Impact and Future Outlook
Both the Morgan and YouGov polls were conducted shortly after the recent federal budget. Analysis suggests that One Nation has gained traction in both these surveys since their immediate post-budget editions. The next federal election is scheduled for early 2028, with key budget measures slated for implementation from July 2027. Analysts suggest that Labor may experience a rebound in support if the post-July 2027 period proceeds without significant negative economic events.
Shifting Favorability and Issue Stances
Public perception of key political figures has also seen movement. In the Redbridge poll, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s net favorability dropped ten points to -19, and Treasurer Jim Chalmers saw a 13-point decline to -18. Other notable figures like Greens leader Larissa Waters and Liberal MPs Andrew Hastie, Angus Taylor, and Nationals leader Matt Canavan also experienced drops in net favorability, while Pauline Hanson saw a slight increase to net zero.
Regarding the federal budget, a significant majority of respondents in the Redbridge poll believed it would be detrimental to the nation (55-23) and personally (48-11). On key issues, the combined right-wing parties held a lead over Labor and the Greens on cost of living, housing, immigration, economic management, crime, and national security. The left-leaning parties maintained leads on healthcare and climate change.
The YouGov poll indicated that 46% of respondents supported a joint government formed by One Nation and the Coalition. Voter sentiment also suggests a desire for change, with only 28% believing the Labor government deserved re-election, though 44% and 45% respectively felt the Liberal party and One Nation were not yet ready for government.
Trust in the Labor government’s fiscal promises was also low, with 59% of respondents expressing distrust in assurances against future taxes on family homes or death taxes.
