[OPINION] A go to that undermines ASEAN itself

All the things in regards to the shock go to of Maria Theresa Lazaro — the overseas secretary of the Philippines and particular envoy of the ASEAN chair — to Naypyidaw, and her assembly with junta chief Min Aung Hlaing, is deeply problematic. The talks reportedly addressed Myanmar’s battle, the regime’s disputed elections, and ASEAN’s 5-Level Consensus (5PC).

The journey was greater than a shock; it was surprising. It revealed a troubling lack of strategic grounding in ASEAN’s personal agreed norms and sequencing for addressing the Myanmar disaster. Removed from advancing peace, the go to dangers signaling not solely the untimely normalization of army rule in Myanmar but additionally a harmful erosion of ASEAN’s coherence, leverage, and institutional credibility.

To start with, the timing was profoundly unsuitable.

Unsuitable timing, unsuitable sign — by ASEAN’s personal requirements

Lazaro’s first mission to Myanmar as ASEAN chair’s particular envoy came about amid an unfinished, three-phase election course of organized by the junta. No matter her intentions, the sensible impact of moving into the center of this course of is to tilt ASEAN towards endorsing and legitimizing polls performed below situations of warfare, coercion, and exclusion.

This runs instantly counter to ASEAN leaders’ most specific steering. Within the ASEAN Leaders’ Evaluate and Resolution on the Implementation of the 5-Level Consensus, adopted in Kuala Lumpur on October 26, 2025, leaders acknowledged unambiguously, “We emphasize that the cessation of violence and inclusive political dialogue should precede elections.”

The primary section of those fabricated elections was meant to be the best for the regime to stage. Voting occurred in townships that Naypyidaw claims to manage firmly, chosen to impress overseas “observers” and worldwide media. Even there, the train grew to become a conspicuous failure.

Turnout was so low that the polls grew to become a non-event. Whereas the regime introduced a determine of 52%, journalists and casual citizen observers persistently reported participation not often exceeding 20% at seen polling stations. Leaked data from insiders in Naypyidaw — so-called “watermelons” — suggests real turnout might have been nearer to fifteen%, with the rest digitally manufactured via opaque “superior voting” mechanisms.

Events aside from the junta-backed USDP have been humiliated by collaboration. Regardless of accepting the stigma of betraying public belief merely to function, they have been nonetheless defeated in every single place via fabricated “advance votes.” The few overseas “observers” who appeared have been low-ranking and insignificant; their itineraries typically consisted of little greater than courtesy conferences with Min Aung Hlaing, rendering the notion of remark virtually farcical.

In the meantime, resistance forces performed a number of operations throughout election days, underscoring that the junta has not regained management and that opposition momentum stays robust. Worldwide media protection largely mirrored this actuality, emphasizing that the regime will not be regaining management via electoral theater.

Given such underperformance, it’s now unsure whether or not the regime can conduct a second section to the extent it introduced, and extremely unlikely {that a} third section will happen in any significant type.

This was the context of Lazaro’s arrival. The elections had already been uncovered as fraudulent, but Min Aung Hlaing desperately wanted to venture normality and management. The go to supplied him exactly that chance.

Partaking a probable ICC defendant

The timing is additional compromised by looming worldwide authorized developments.

In November 2024, ICC Prosecutor Karim Ahmad Khan requested an arrest warrant for Min Aung Hlaing, alleging prison accountability for crimes in opposition to humanity, together with the deportation and persecution of the Rohingya inhabitants in 2017. Victims, Myanmar civil society organizations, worldwide human rights teams, and Myanmar’s United Nations ambassador Kyaw Moe Tun have referred to as for swift judicial motion.

There have been indications that the ICC’s pre-trial Chamber evaluation may happen as early as February. On this context, fundamental diplomatic prudence — and consistency with ASEAN’s acknowledged concern for civilian safety and accountability — would have recommended restraint earlier than conferring high-level visibility on a determine who might quickly face worldwide justice.

When envoy follow erodes ASEAN leverage

In the course of the go to, Lazaro acknowledged that the Philippines would construct on earlier efforts to advance the 5-Level Consensus. But the go to itself departed from the engagement rules ASEAN leaders reaffirmed solely months earlier.

The October 2025 Leaders’ Resolution harassed the significance of inclusive engagement with all related stakeholders, shut coordination amongst present, earlier, and incoming ASEAN chairs, and consistency and continuity in implementing the 5PC 

These weren’t procedural formalities; they have been safeguards designed to protect ASEAN’s unity and leverage after years of noncompliance by the Myanmar army.

It stays unclear whether or not the go to was totally consulted with ASEAN companions, notably Malaysia and Indonesia, whose envoys invested important political capital in constructing fastidiously balanced engagement codecs. Neither the Nationwide Unity Authorities (NUG) nor ethnic revolutionary organizations have been knowledgeable upfront. They have been caught off guard, as have been the folks of Myanmar, when junta media revealed photos of Min Aung Hlaing warmly shaking palms with the ASEAN particular envoy.

Past Myanmar, the implications for ASEAN itself are critical. Excessive-level, publicly framed engagement with Min Aung Hlaing in Naypyidaw dangers signaling — deliberately or not — that Myanmar’s army management could also be on a pathway again towards full political illustration inside ASEAN, together with participation on the summit stage.

Since October 2021, ASEAN’s resolution to exclude the junta from summits and ministerial conferences — whereas permitting solely non-political illustration — has been its clearest and most consequential leverage level. Actions that blur the road between facilitation and recognition weaken that leverage, create harmful ambiguity in regards to the situations for readmission, and threat conveying that continued violence and obstruction might in the end be rewarded with restored entry to ASEAN’s highest decision-making boards.

Ceremonial recognition will not be mediation

The format of the assembly compounded the issue. Lazaro spoke of facilitating dialogue with all events, but the go to handled Min Aung Hlaing as if he have been the pinnacle of a authentic central authorities.

Pictures have been staged within the opulent, kitschy interiors of Naypyidaw’s pseudo-imperial palaces. The imagery conveyed confidence, normalcy, and authority — not mediation. That is the alternative of what ASEAN leaders described once they emphasised trust-building, neutrality, and inclusive dialogue.

A genuinely balanced strategy would require comparable, publicly seen engagement with all sides of the battle. Indonesia and Malaysia beforehand demonstrated this self-discipline. Their envoys communicated deliberate visits upfront and ensured immediate conferences with senior NUG representatives. When Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim met Min Aung Hlaing in Thailand — intentionally avoiding Naypyidaw — he instantly adopted it with a web-based assembly with NUG Prime Minister Mahn Winn Khaing Thann.

That strategy protected not solely the steadiness amongst Myanmar stakeholders but additionally ASEAN’s personal credibility.

Myanmar society has already expressed its will clearly: via nationwide Silent Strikes, via 1.7 million on-line votes rejecting the electoral farce, via sustained protest, and thru the refusal of real political forces to legitimize army rule.

Primary rule of doing no hurt

Lazaro has stated she stays dedicated to ending violence, selling dialogue, and increasing humanitarian help. But ASEAN leaders themselves have acknowledged the dearth of substantive progress by Myanmar’s army authorities and have repeatedly reaffirmed that violence discount and inclusive dialogue should come first.

Accepting sham elections violates essentially the most fundamental precept of doing no hurt. Normalizing fabricated outcomes is not going to de-escalate the battle; it’ll escalate it. For the junta’s hardliners, elections usually are not a compromise mechanism however a device to realize legitimacy, time, and assets to pursue intensified warfare.

Whitewashing atrocities — nonetheless unintentionally — will not be mediation. It’s appeasement, and it undermines each Myanmar’s prospects for peace and ASEAN’s institutional authority.

Corrective steps to revive ASEAN credibility

The harm attributable to the Naypyidaw go to will not be irreversible, nevertheless it requires swift correction.

First, the ASEAN chair’s particular envoy ought to undertake publicly seen engagement with the NUG and ethnic revolutionary organizations, at a stage and format corresponding to her engagement with the junta.

Second, ASEAN ought to clearly and publicly affirm that it doesn’t endorse or acknowledge electoral outcomes performed below situations of ongoing violence, coercion, and exclusion. Silence dangers being exploited as consent.

Third, the particular envoy ought to explicitly reaffirm ASEAN’s agreed sequencing below the 5-Level Consensus: significant discount of violence and inclusive political dialogue should precede any electoral course of.

With out such corrective motion, the chance extends far past Myanmar. What’s at stake is ASEAN’s capability to uphold its personal choices, protect its leverage, and stay a reputable regional actor whose phrases are matched by disciplined follow. – Rappler.com

Igor Blazevic is a senior advisor on the Prague Civil Society Centre. He has labored with democracy activists in Myanmar for almost 20 years and served on the World Motion for Democracy’s steering committee.