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PAGASA says ENSO-neutral circumstances are more likely to persist till the June–July–August 2026 season
MANILA, Philippines – The transient 2025-2026 La Niña episode has ended within the tropical Pacific Ocean, the Philippines’ climate bureau introduced on Monday, March 9.
Situations have already returned to ENSO-neutral, in keeping with the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Companies Administration (PAGASA).
ENSO stands for El Niño Southern Oscillation, which the World Meteorological Group defines as “a recurring pure phenomenon characterised by fluctuating ocean temperatures within the equatorial Pacific, coupled with adjustments within the environment.” It has three phases: El Niño or the nice and cozy section, La Niña or the cool section, and impartial.
The just-concluded La Niña episode started in late 2025 and was characterised as comparatively weak. Within the Philippines, La Niña often triggers above-normal rainfall.
PAGASA stated in a press release on Monday that ENSO-neutral circumstances are more likely to persist till the June–July–August 2026 season.
The climate bureau warned the general public, nonetheless, that “different climate and local weather programs should still affect rainfall distribution within the nation” regardless of the tip of La Niña.
Attainable sources of rain within the subsequent six months, or from March to August, embrace the northeast monsoon or amihan, easterlies, shear line, localized thunderstorms, intertropical convergence zone, low stress areas, tropical cyclones, and the southwest monsoon or habagat which usually begins within the second half of Might or first half of June.
Six to 14 tropical cyclones are anticipated to type inside or enter the Philippine Space of Accountability from March to August.
Based mostly on PAGASA knowledge from 1948 to 2024, July, August, and September are the months with the best common tropical cyclone frequency, with 3.2, 3.0, and three.1 tropical cyclones, respectively.
However earlier than frequent rainfall, the Philippines will quickly must face excessive warmth. The northeast monsoon is already winding down, which might imply the tip of the cool and dry season. The beginning of the nice and cozy and dry season or tag-init is predicted to be declared inside March.
In 2025, PAGASA had introduced the onset of the nice and cozy and dry season on March 26. – Rappler.com
