A recent poll indicates that the Green Party of Prince Edward Island is the preferred political choice among Islanders, with party leader Matt MacFarlane also emerging as the top choice for premier. The survey, conducted by Narrative Research, offers a snapshot of public sentiment, though experts caution against viewing it as a definitive election predictor.
Green Party Emerges as Top Choice in P.E.I. Poll
The latest data from Narrative Research, gathered between June 10 and June 17, surveyed 147 Islanders through an online opt-in poll. When asked about their voting intentions if an election were held immediately, 40 percent of respondents indicated they would support the Green Party. This places the Greens ahead of other major parties, with the Liberal Party receiving 19 percent support, the Progressive Conservatives at 13 percent, and the NDP at 2 percent. A significant portion of respondents, 26 percent, remained undecided.
This poll marks a shift in methodology for Narrative Research, as past surveys have utilized different approaches. The company has not released a margin of error for these particular results, which is a standard metric for assessing the statistical reliability of a poll.
MacFarlane Leads as Preferred Premier
Beyond party affiliation, the poll also gauged public preference for the provincial premier. Green Party Leader Matt MacFarlane garnered the highest support, with 51 percent of respondents naming him as their preferred choice. This significantly outpaces other party leaders, including PC Leader Rob Lantz, who received 11 percent, and Liberal Leader Robert Mitchell, with 10 percent.
Expert Analysis of the Poll Results
Don Desserud, a political science professor at the University of Prince Edward Island, described the poll as a potential “morale boost” for the Green Party. However, he emphasized that such results should not be interpreted as a direct forecast of the next provincial election’s outcome. Desserud noted that voter behavior can shift considerably as an election approaches, with individuals often reverting to familiar voting patterns.
“When it gets real, people sort of shift back to older voting habits,” Desserud explained. “But this has got to be something that [the Greens] can see as something to build on.”
Desserud also commented on the preference for MacFarlane as premier, suggesting it reflects a segment of the electorate seeking “compatible” leadership and potentially feeling a lack of direction from established parties. He advised the Green Party to identify the specific elements of their platform or approach that are resonating with voters and to concentrate on these strengths without alienating potential supporters.
“This is about people who are looking for something that’s compatible, looking for leadership at a time when they’re thinking they’re not getting leadership and are willing to look at the Greens and give them a chance,” Desserud said. “What the Green Party has to do is try to figure out what exactly is it about what they’re doing that’s working and make sure that they focus on that and not get off track and focus on things that perhaps will end up alienating voters.”
Reactions from Political Parties
Matt MacFarlane expressed that the poll results validate the work his party is undertaking, stating that it “resonates with Islanders.” He indicated that consistent positive polling reflects a public perception that the Green Party and his leadership are addressing the needs and desires of the province’s residents. MacFarlane added that he frequently hears from constituents who appreciate having a voice and view the Green Party as their current representative.
The P.E.I. Liberal Party publicly questioned the poll’s findings, asserting that their internal surveys show a “sharp variance” with Narrative Research’s data. A statement from the party indicated confidence in their own strong position and their suitability to form the next government.
Similarly, the governing Progressive Conservative Party challenged the poll, stating that “no single survey tells the whole story.” They highlighted the inherent difficulties in accurately polling Prince Edward Island and pointed to the “significant limitations” of a small online sample size.
Interpreting the Small Sample Size
Desserud acknowledged that the sample size of 147 respondents is “very, very small.” Despite this limitation, he suggested that the poll’s outcomes could signal “something exciting going on” in the eyes of Islanders regarding the Green Party’s current standing. He also advised the Liberal and PC parties to strategize on how to regain public attention and engagement.
“What the Liberals have to do and the PCs have to do is try to figure out how they can get that attention back to them,” Desserud commented. “It just shows how interesting Prince Edward Island politics is all the time.”
The next provincial election in Prince Edward Island is constitutionally required by October 2027, though an earlier election could be called.
