ASEAN newsrooms have joined collectively to offer an preliminary evaluation of the progress and challenges confronted by ASEAN in 2026 underneath the chairmanship of the Philippines.
On this sequence, regional newsrooms Rappler, Mizzima, Kiripost, and Malaysiakini delve into the important thing points going through this regional physique.
CEBU, Philippines – All through 2024, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. made variations of the same pitch: that in a world of two superpowers attempting to one-up one another, center powers ought to come collectively towards widespread threats to ensure they’re the “primary characters in our collective story.”
Marcos’ aspirations should come into apply in 2026, with the Philippines serving as chair of the Affiliation of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
Manila has launched “three Ps” as its priorities: “Peace and Safety Anchors, Prosperity Corridors, and Folks Empowerment.”
The archipelagic nation’s aspirations are painted throughout ASEAN 2026’s visible branding. Its brand is that of a balangay, a pre-colonial boat used to journey throughout the archipelago that may ultimately represent the Philippines.
The mighty balangay was additionally as soon as used to traverse open sea and commerce in faraway islands and coasts lengthy earlier than modern-day borders have been drawn up. The ASEAN chairship’s theme just isn’t refined both: “Navigating Our Future, Collectively.”
With the abundance of maritime references, one wonders: what sort of tough waters will Marcos and the Philippines have to steer the bloc by way of?
Safety takes highlight
The Philippines kicked off its chairmanship in Cebu province, residence to over 5.2 million folks. As probably the most vote-rich province within the nation with a protracted historical past of pre-colonial and modern-day commerce, Cebu is a hub of each political energy and commerce.
The gathering of ASEAN’s overseas ministers is the first high-level assembly within the Philippines’ chairmanship and the primary main assembly underneath the ASEAN Political-Safety Neighborhood.
Division of International Affairs (DFA) officers had laid out precedence discussions for the ASEAN International Ministers Assembly (AMM) — the implementation of the five-point consensus on Myanmar, border tensions between Thailand and Cambodia, and tensions and disputes within the South China Sea.
Philippine International Affairs Secretary and AMM chair Maria Theresa Lazaro mentioned in a press assertion, the worldwide setting ASEAN faces “is marked by overlapping pressures, together with intensifying geopolitical competitors, rising financial uncertainty, and the erosion of multilateral techniques and the rules-based order by way of unilateral actions.”
In different phrases, the world ASEAN exists in is in flux.
As China deepens its affect within the bloc and past, the US has change into extra brazen in flouting guidelines that center powers attempt to uphold.
Lazaro added, “Taken collectively, these realities underscore the enduring significance of ASEAN’s time-honored rules of restraint, dialogue, and adherence to worldwide regulation in searching for to protect peace and stability for our peoples.”
After the retreat on January 29 that took over 4 hours and a January 28 huddle on the five-point consensus, ASEAN couldn’t but make a stand on the elections in Myanmar days after the third voting spherical within the junta-ruled nation concluded.
Lazaro mentioned the bloc desires an answer that’s “each Myanmar-owned and Myanmar-led, whereas reaffirming that Myanmar stays an integral a part of ASEAN.”
Hope in a Code of Conduct?
Amongst Manila’s loftier aspirations is the elusive conclusion of the Code of Conduct for the South China Sea between ASEAN and China. 2026 is the deadline overseas ministers set in 2023 for the conclusion of guidelines the bloc and China would observe to keep away from clashes, decrease tensions, and produce stability to the important thing waterway.
Negotiations have stretched for 20 years, because the Declaration on the Conduct of Events within the South China Sea (DOC) was signed in 2002. Its tempo has been exceedingly sluggish — with the primary breakthrough being a Single Draft Negotiating Textual content agreed upon in 2018, or 16 years after the DOC.
It was not till 2025 that negotiators started deliberating on milestone points, or probably the most contentious factors in talks.
Manila desires an excellent quicker tempo in 2026.
Lazaro mentioned face-to-face conferences between ASEAN and China on the COC are set to occur month-to-month. Diplomats say there’s willingness to carry even on-line conferences to hasten progress in negotiations.
However assembly frequency doesn’t all the time make sure that tough matters will likely be resolved quicker.
The 4 milestone points embody the scope of the COC, definitions together with self-restraint and guidelines overlaying joint navy drills, the brand new textual content’s relation to the DOC, and whether or not it is going to be legally binding.
Lazaro disclosed a spotlight of the Philippines: the definition of self-restraint and the “attainable phrases of reference of that situation.”
Consensus is a core precept that’s helped preserve ASEAN cohesion whereas making it tough for the bloc to make daring declarations.
ASEAN members are various in how they view South China Sea points and their relationships with China. Differing nationwide pursuits clarify, partly, why negotiating a COC in a consensus-based bloc has been so tough.
Whereas the South China Sea is a continuing speaking level in ASEAN, not often is consensus present in these discussions.
The stakes for the Philippines are particularly excessive.
China’s sweeping declare within the South China Sea has translated into restrictions on, and harassment of, Filipino fisherfolk in some fishing areas. For native communities which can be among the many poorest within the nation, this implies fishing in much less ample waters or venturing farther into open sea.
For Philippine authorities vessels, it has meant repeatedly going through harmful acts by the China Coast Guard — like robust water cannons whereas at sea — to drive them away from waters Beijing considers its territory.
ASEAN and its member-states have been noticeably quiet within the face of clashes between Manila and Beijing within the West Philippine Sea — a portion of the South China Sea that features the Philippines’ unique financial zone and its claimed options.
President Marcos has repeatedly raised South China Sea points in ASEAN summits.
In 2024 at Vientiane, Marcos urged the bloc “to not flip a blind eye to the aggressive, coercive, and unlawful actions of an exterior energy towards an ASEAN member state for such actions undermine their claims of real adherence to our core values.”
Marcos warned that “silence within the face of those violations diminishes ASEAN.” In response to Nikkei reporting, co-claimants “Vietnam, Singapore and Thailand adopted Marcos’ lead and introduced up their South China Sea considerations” on the ASEAN-China Summit, the place geopolitical points are sometimes not raised.
Will Marcos and the Philippines be as daring in 2026? In any case, in 2024, Marcos mentioned the “onus is now on China” to hasten talks since “ASEAN has been ready for a very long time.”
Problem at residence
Because the Philippines plans and hosts 650 or so conferences throughout the 12 months, together with the forty eighth and forty ninth Summit, Marcos should additionally cope with an existential disaster at residence.
The flood management corruption he uncovered has brought about his belief and approval numbers to plunge, with over two years nonetheless left in his presidency.
There’s concern within the paperwork and diplomatic circles that the ensuing mess may suck oxygen from home governance and waste the alternatives an ASEAN chairmanship affords.
The week earlier than Cebu’s internet hosting of the AMM and the ASEAN Tourism Discussion board (ATF), impeachment circumstances have been filed towards Marcos. The identical week, he introduced a diverticulitis analysis, which meant he needed to minimize down on public engagements, together with the ATF kickoff.
If 2025 was tough seas for Marcos as president and politician, 2026 has early indications of even stormier situations.
Can Marcos and the Philippines successfully steer and navigate the bloc’s future in a single piece? –Rappler.com
Bea Cupin is a multimedia reporter who covers overseas affairs, protection, and politics for Manila-based information web site Rappler.
