Predicting Staff USA’s 2028 Olympic basketball roster: Who joins Kevin Durant?

The 2026 Winter Olympics concluded on Sunday, and the NBA is already waiting for the 2028 video games. Not too long ago, four-time Olympian Kevin Durant stated that he needs to play for a historic fifth gold medal in Los Angeles. “Hell yeah, I wish to play,” Durant stated. “I’d like to, however I’ve acquired to remain on prime of my sport. I am not anticipating, I wish to produce on the ground and make Grant (Hill) and whoever is making the choices, wish to put me on the group. I do not need — not only for seniority. I wish to nonetheless show I can assist the group win.”

Durant might in the end deserve a spot on benefit — 2028 remains to be a methods away for a 37-year-old, however he’s nonetheless an All-Star-caliber NBA participant — but when he needs a spot, it is his on seniority. He’s the best Olympic basketball participant of all time, and his skillset ought to age effectively sufficient and matches so easily subsequent to different elite gamers that, in need of vital injury- or age-related decline, it is laborious to ascertain a situation through which he would not be capable to assist Staff USA.

However that exacerbates a first-world downside for Staff USA: after years of concern in regards to the American developmental pipeline, we’re in the course of a expertise increase. The final handful of drafts have been very type to American prospects, and when you think about the entire nice present American gamers who’ve already worn the pink, white and blue, it out of the blue will get very tough to trim the roster right down to 12 gamers. With Durant in place, there are actually solely 11 spots.

So … who do we expect is filling these different slots? We will take a shot at filling in the remainder of the group. Remember that we’re nonetheless greater than two years away right here, so growing old can be an element. So will the stylistic variations between the NBA and FIBA sport. Bear in mind, FIBA has no defensive three-second rule, no goaltending and a shorter 3-point line, so capturing is at an absolute premium. Officers are likely to name fewer fouls as effectively, permitting for extra physicality defensively. We nonetheless have a methods to go earlier than 2028, however for now, these are the gamers who take advantage of sense 4 Staff USA’s subsequent Olympic roster.

The celebrities

Sure, sure, I do know, nearly everybody who performs for Staff USA goes to qualify as a “star.” However each Olympic cycle reminds us this course of is a little more advanced than slapping the 12 largest names collectively. We simply watched Jayson Tatum journey the bench within the 2024 run to gold whereas his less-accomplished NBA teammate, Derrick White, performed an important rotation function. The concept right here is to seize a handful of the very best gamers within the NBA after which use the remainder of the roster to spherical out the group with specialists.

Now, Durant can be on the group, however he can be 39 when the Olympics arrive. He is in all probability coming off of the bench. We’ll tackle the bigs individually. Happily, the 4 different starters seem like comparatively easy at this level.

• Cade Cunningham is, at worst, the fourth-best level guard within the NBA. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is Canadian, Luka Dončić is Slovenian and Stephen Curry seemingly will not be again as a 40-year-old in 2028. That leaves Cunningham as the apparent alternative as our start line guard. His playmaking ought to slot in fairly effectively on an Olympic roster with way more offensive firepower than his Pistons, and his dimension and defensive versatility guarantee he will not get picked on. This one’s a no brainer.
• Anthony Edwards received gold in 2024, has improved markedly as a shooter and submit participant since then and can flip 27 quickly after the 2028 Olympics. He needs to be on the peak of his powers at this level and will simply be the very best American participant within the NBA. As soon as once more, this one is clear.
• Jayson Tatum actually ought to have been one of many core members of the 2024 group. American Olympians often solely play a couple of times earlier than handing the baton to the following technology. Durant and LeBron James did not do this final time, in order that pressured Tatum to the bench, the place Steve Kerr seemingly decided that regardless of being a jack of all trades, he was not sufficient of a grasp at any single one to justify constant specialist minutes off the bench. Effectively, with James presumably carried out competing for gold and Durant headed for the bench, Tatum’s versatility alongside different stars out of the blue seems to be much more useful. Assuming he does not considerably decline because of his torn Achilles, he ought to nonetheless be a deserving starter. He was the very best American ahead within the NBA earlier than he acquired harm, and arguably the very best general American participant.
• Cooper Flagg rounds out our core. We’re admittedly doing a little projecting right here, but it surely feels comparatively protected to take action. He is simply the fourth rookie in NBA historical past to common 20 factors, six rebounds and 4 assists. The primary three have been Michael Jordan, Larry Fowl and Luka Dončić. Odds are, he’ll be a particular participant by his third season. His defensive versatility and competitiveness ought to slot in fairly effectively right here.

So let’s take inventory right here. In Cunningham, Edwards, Tatum and Flagg, we have now an infinite set of starters through which our smallest participant, Edwards, is 6-foot-4. Defensively, this foursome needs to be stellar and able to just about any scheme Erik Spoelstra needs to run. There’s loads of playmaking right here too. Cunningham at present trails solely Nikola Jokić for the NBA lead in assists, and Tatum and Edwards have each averaged at the very least 5 assists per sport in a season regardless of not enjoying level guard. Throw in Flagg’s passing and you’ve got a very balanced group that may all set each other up.

If it is missing wherever, it is in all probability capturing, and that is solely a minor blemish. Cunningham is roughly a 34% shooter from deep, Flagg is at round 30%, and whereas Tatum is usually a dependable shooter, his jumper seemingly deserted him throughout his final run with Staff USA. Happily, we have now a large pool of American gamers to select from to fill in that “hole” and spherical out the remainder of the group. Let’s begin with the large males, who deserve their very own class. Happily, there is not actually a scarcity of American bigs who can shoot.

The bigs

Our first middle alternative is simple. We would like a giant who can shoot? Chet Holmgren is roughly a 37% 3-point shooter. Drawback solved. That he is additionally a perpetual Defensive Participant of the 12 months candidate is a pleasant bonus. He is not an awesome rebounder, however having Tatum and Flagg at ahead ought to assist offset that minor deficiency, and apart from, we have now two extra massive slots at our disposal right here. We are able to stylistically cherrypick from this level on.

Rebounding largely matches into the broader want for physicality. Serbia gave Staff USA its largest check in 2024, so profitable in 2028 means having a solution for Nikola Jokić. Alperen Sengun, Domantas Sabonis and Giannis Antetokounmpo loom as attainable opponents right here as effectively, and although he performs in a different way, Staff USA wants as many stylistic choices as it may well discover to throw at Victor Wembanyama. So for our second massive slot, we’re searching for a little bit of heft.

This is not one thing the American hoops pipeline tends to ship a lot anymore, however we thankfully have a fairly easy alternative right here. It is Jalen Duren. He comes with baked in chemistry with Cunningham, he rebounds, and though the pattern within the fashionable NBA is at all times going to be pretty small, his numbers defending the submit have by and huge been wonderful. Over the previous three seasons, he has been within the seventy fifth percentile or higher at submit up factors allowed per possession. Once more, tiny pattern, but it surely checks out. While you’re as sturdy as Duren, you are in all probability going to be powerful to attain on close to the basket.

The third spot comes down to 2 names, they usually’re fairly related gamers. Each Bam Adebayo and Evan Mobley are enormously versatile defensive massive males who’ve improved meaningfully as shooters in recent times and may create a few of their very own seems to be. The usual growing old curve would recommend that Mobley, who can be 27 when the Olympics roll round, is more likely to be higher at that time than Adebayo, who can be 31. He may even be higher now. However Erik Spoelstra is teaching this group, and he is in all probability going to lean towards the participant he is extra comfy with, which might certainly be the one he is coached in Miami for nearly a decade now. It would not harm to have a bit extra Olympic expertise on this roster, so Adebayo’s 2024 run is a plus as effectively. If it is a tie or near it, he is in all probability going to win. If he is declined in any respect by then, although, Mobley is able to go.

The supporting solid

So proper now, we have now eight spots locked up: Durant, Cunningham, Edwards, Tatum, Flagg, Holmgren, Duren and Adebayo. There are three fairly easy roles we have to fill with our 4 remaining slots: backup level guard, designated shooter and designated defender.

• Tyrese Maxey is our backup level guard. His pace and capturing contrasts properly with the larger Cunningham, giving Staff USA a curveball to throw at opposing bench lineups. The secret right here is versatility, and Cunningham and Maxey simply complement one another completely.
• Kon Knueppel is the clear designated shooter alternative. He is main the NBA in made 3-pointers as a rookie. He is averaging eight 3-point makes an attempt per sport, and the one gamers to shoot the next proportion from deep on that quantity in a season are Stephen Curry and Duncan Robinson. He is on observe to succeed Curry as the very best shooter within the NBA, so if we’re searching for one, pure shooter for the roster, he is our man.
• Amen Thompson is our defensive specialist. This was the trickiest alternative. He simply checked probably the most containers. He is maybe the NBA’s greatest athlete, he is 6-foot-7 with a seven-foot wingspan so he is positionally versatile, and FIBA’s whistle needs to be very type to him given how bodily he likes to play.

We’ll get into among the different gamers I thought of for these slots within the snub part, however for now, we have now one final slot to fill. It is a tough one. There isn’t any particular want we’re trying to tackle right here. We have checked each positional field, and due to how massive a few of our guards are, there’s probably not an impetus to hunt out dimension right here both. It is only a matter of choosing the very best obtainable American participant.

Now, this might change within the subsequent two years, however I consider at this level the very best obtainable American participant is Donovan Mitchell. He’ll be closing in on his thirty second birthday by then, so decline is an actual chance, however he nonetheless hasn’t performed and 2028 will in all probability be his final practical likelihood. He is a seven-time NBA All-Star. Each different lively participant to be chosen to that many All-Star groups has at the very least been chosen by Staff USA, although Kawhi Leonard dropped out as a consequence of damage. He completed fifth in MVP voting final 12 months and simply ranked seventh in ESPN’s newest MVP straw ballot for this season. Solely two Individuals completed above him, Cunningham and somebody we’ll get to in a second. Purely as a person, he’s probably the most completed American participant with no gold medal.

So Mitchell is the choose to spherical out the roster. That leaves us with the next 12-man group …

The ultimate roster

The snubs

So, we talked about one different American participant who simply outranked Mitchell within the MVP straw ballot. That will be Jaylen Brown. In pure basketball phrases, he could be an affordable alternative. He is having the very best season of his profession, he performed for Staff USA within the FIBA World Cup, and our roster does lean a bit extra towards guards than forwards.

In the end, the prediction was knowledgeable by two components. The primary is that I merely suppose Mitchell is barely higher. In the very best 12 months of Brown’s profession, he and Mitchell are nonetheless mainly even when it comes to scoring quantity. Brown is the higher defender given his dimension, however Mitchell is a greater playmaker, is extra environment friendly and beats Brown in a lot of the all-in-one metrics fairly meaningfully. They’re shut sufficient that if there was a particular want for one thing Brown did, he’d be a good alternative. But when that have been the case, we’d have carved out a specialist slot for him and we did not.

The opposite issue was politics. Brown criticized Staff USA in 2024 for his perception that it permits Nike affect over roster selections. Whether or not that is true or not, it is a headache Staff USA would in all probability desire to keep away from. If we have been speaking a few foundational a part of USA Basketball, that may be one factor, however for one of many final slots on the roster, the tie might be going to go to another person.

The opposite candidate for the ultimate, “greatest obtainable American participant” slot was Jalen Williams. He is not the person creator Brown is, however he is a greater defender and on the suitable facet of the growing old curve. He is having a down 12 months as he recovers from a wrist damage, but it surely’s affordable to imagine that he’ll at the very least bounce again to the extent he performed eventually season, when he was an All-NBA alternative. If USA Basketball needs a ahead for this final slot, he is the simple choose. However in a tie, I am giving the sting to the older participant. Williams could have extra possibilities.

Backup level guard was a nightmare. Tyrese Haliburton was on the 2024 group, although he barely performed. Jalen Brunson missed the lower, and he reportedly needs one other shot in 2028. Both would have been worthy selections. However the guard pool is so deep that, with two years out, I am inclined to not gamble on what Haliburton seems to be like post-Achilles tear. I am a bit extra comfy with Tatum, a ahead, wanting principally like himself after that damage in comparison with Haliburton, a guard. Brunson is the oldest of the three, proper in the identical vary as Mitchell, however his enjoying fashion is a little more tailor-made to the NBA given his mid-range mastery and defensive vulnerability at his dimension. Each have been agonizing cuts, particularly given how effectively Haliburton’s passing matches into the FIBA sport, however we solely have 12 spots.

Devin Booker did not actually match right into a neat field, however he was one other brutal lower contemplating how effectively he performed in 2024. However Mitchell has outplayed him for a number of years now, and we have now had two full seasons of subpar 3-point capturing out of Booker, so he wasn’t going to get any consideration within the designated shooter slot. He is not beating gamers off of the dribble fairly as simply anymore both, so I would be a bit involved with how he’ll look in two-and-a-half years.

I may have gone in so many various instructions for the designated defender slot. Jalen Suggs is not sturdy sufficient. Herb Jones does not do sufficient offensively. Alex Caruso is simply too previous. Cason Wallace is simply too small. The 2 gamers that the majority critically challenged Amen Thompson have been his brother Ausar and Stephon Fort. In the long run, Amen’s offensive benefit over his brother and his slight dimension benefit over Fort have been the tiebreakers. Fort is actually higher on offense than Thompson, although, and if both of them can simply get to satisfactory as a 3-point shooter, that may make choosing a winner simpler. Talking of capturing, that was what stored Scottie Barnes off the group. He may qualify as a defensive specialist, although he is clearly extra well-rounded than that general. This group simply already has sufficient of what he does offensively, and Thompson is a better match within the on-ball defensive function we’re trying to fill.

The one different massive man I gave any consideration to was Walker Kessler. He hasn’t performed a lot this season as a consequence of damage, however he performed for Staff USA within the 2023 World Cup and he checks the identical dimension and physicality containers that Duren does. Duren’s development into an All-Star this season made him the clear alternative for this function on the group, however I am maintaining a tally of Kessler simply on the faint hope that his experiments with 3-point capturing ever bear fruit. If he ever learns to shoot at his dimension, he’d be an awesome FIBA participant, so be careful over the following two years.

After which there are the children. I do not suppose Reed Sheppard goes to catch Knueppel, however he was a equally gifted school shooter. The 2025 draft class is promising sufficient that a few of these gamers, like Cedric Coward or Derik Queen, could also be heard from within the years to come back. And naturally, we have now three enormously promising American kids coming in June in Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa and Cam Boozer. Making the group after solely two years as an expert is uncommon, however not unparalleled. Keldon Johnson made the lower after his rookie season in 2020, and Anthony Davis performed for Staff USA earlier than he even performed within the NBA. Neither performed main roles within the Olympics, however each received gold medals, so we won’t rule the upcoming rookies out.