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Only a reminder that no NFL trades or free-agent signings are official till mentioned participant(s) passes a bodily. Typically, what one staff’s physician may not see one other staff’s does, and transactions can get voided. We received a stark reminder of that this week within the league when the Ravens’ huge commerce for Raiders All-Professional pass-rusher Maxx Crosby was voided. Baltimore circled and signed one other All-Professional pass-rusher in Trey Hendrickson. Let’s try to type all this out.
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Crosby was shut down in opposition to his needs for the ultimate two video games of final season with some knee points – turned out to be a torn meniscus in his left knee — that required surgical procedure, however it was nothing that will value him time in 2026. Groups involved in buying and selling for Crosby met together with his surgeon and the Raiders’ medical workers earlier than making presents.
The Ravens’ medical doctors reviewed Crosby’s MRI and had been in consensus that Crosby’s short-term outlook was optimistic, however there have been considerations concerning the long-term prognosis of his knee and Crosby is owed about $93 million over the subsequent three seasons. Within the NFL, there isn’t a commonplace for evaluating the outcomes of a bodily.
Thus, Baltimore believed there was an excessive amount of threat contemplating it was giving up two first-round picks to Las Vegas. There’s lots of scuttlebutt that Ravens GM Eric DeCosta merely received chilly ft and that Hendrickson’s worth got here down, so DeCosta jumped. And whereas Crosby would have value two first-round picks, Hendrickson solely value cash: A four-year, $112 million deal because the Ravens outbid the Payments, Bucs, Colts and Eagles.
One might argue that Hendrickson is a greater pass-rusher proper now, however he is 31 and Crosby is 28. Hendrickson was arguably the highest free agent accessible available on the market. From 2023-24 he turned the fifth participant in NFL historical past with no less than 17 sacks in consecutive seasons, main the league with 17.5 in 2024 when he was first-team All-Professional and runner-up for Defensive Participant of the Yr.
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Hendrickson ended the 2025 season on injured reserve after surgical procedure to restore a core muscle damage, ending with 4 sacks in seven video games. That is probably why he was nonetheless available on the market, though a few of these golf equipment had been in on Crosby. Since signing with the Bengals as a free agent in 2021, Hendrickson ranks second in general stress fee (13.2%) and has 61 sacks, the fourth-highest complete within the league. He’s +2200 to win NFL Defensive Participant of the Yr this season; Crosby is +800.
Baltimore had 30 sacks in 2025, tied for the second-fewest in staff historical past. The one edge rushers on the roster earlier than this addition had been Tavius Robinson, Mike Inexperienced, Adisa Isaac and Kaimon Rucker. They’ve 12.5 profession sacks between them.
Operating backs are likely to fall off a cliff at age 30, and gamers with no less than 4 profession 10-sack seasons by age 30 this century like Hendrickson common 12.7 sacks at age 29 and seven.4 sacks by age 31 – which Hendrickson will likely be in early December. However no less than he stays within the AFC North.
Baltimore’s futures odds throughout the board received shorter after including Crosby and received barely longer at a couple of sportsbooks with Hendrickson as a substitute. The Ravens are +450 favorites at DraftKings to win the AFC and +900 third-favorites for the Tremendous Bowl.
Under is the SportsLine Projection Mannequin forecast for Baltimore with all this musical chairs of pass-rushers. It downgrades the staff a bit, initially itemizing the Ravens at 10.7 wins with Crosby that dropped to 10.0 with out however then rose again as much as 10.4 including Hendrickson. That they had a 46.4% shot on the AFC North and eight.1% of successful Tremendous Bowl 61 with out Crosby; these at the moment are 52.7% and 6.34% (equates to +1477) with Hendrickson.
Ravens | Projected wins | Division | Playoffs | Convention | Tremendous Bowl |
No Crosby | 10.0 | 46.4% | 36.3% | 1.87% | 0.77% |
w/Hendrickson | 10.4 | 52.7% | 38.4% | 2.06% | 0.82% |
+/- Influence | 0.4 | 6.3% | 2.1% | 0.19% | 0.05% |
% Change | 4.0% | 13.5% | 5.7% | 10.2% | 6.5% |
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What about Crosby now? Las Vegas can nonetheless commerce its star and had moved on by being among the many largest spenders in free company, including roughly $300 million in contracts, however Crosby may need to open the season within the Silver & Black in spite of everything. Lots of the different top-pass rushers at the moment are off the market in Jaelan Phillips (signed with Panthers) Odafe Oweh (Commanders), Khalil Mack (re-signed with Chargers) and Rashan Gary (traded to Cowboys).
Dallas was heavy on Crosby the primary time round however reportedly is now out. Through Kalshi, that Crosby stays with the Raiders is priced at 44 cents per share (44% likelihood) and that he goes to the Bears is subsequent at 30 cents, then Philadelphia at 15 cents. Chicago was the almost definitely vacation spot when Crosby was dealt to Baltimore.
DraftKings presents a head-to-head sacks prop this season that includes Hendrickson at -140 in opposition to Crosby at +110. I would have to attend and see the place Crosby lands earlier than contemplating that.
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