It’s time for teams across the nation to prepare their final statements for the College Football Playoff committee.
But with just under two weeks before the committee determines the 12-team field, FOX Sports college football analyst Robert Griffin III took a shot at projecting what the College Football Playoff might look like. Griffin has a surprise team getting the No. 1 seed in his projection, and he currently has the Big 12 getting two teams. So, he thinks one of the teams currently in position to get an at-large spot might trip up this weekend.
Let’s dive right into Griffin’s CFP projections entering the final week of the regular season.
First-round byes
This might come as a shock, but Griffin has said on multiple occasions this season that he has Indiana as his No. 1 team in the nation over Ohio State, notably tabbing the Hoosiers as the top team in the nation following their upset win at Oregon in October.
Indiana has continued to roll since then, winning its last five games. Of course, it had the close call at Penn State, but it’s won nine of its 11 games this season by double digits and quarterback Fernando Mendoza is the betting favorite for the Heisman. A win against Purdue on Friday would send Indiana to the Big Ten Championship Game.
2. Ohio State
Most polls, rankings and bracket projects have Ohio State at No. 1, but not in RGIII’s CFP bracket projection. The defending champs certainly have a resume worthy of the No. 1 spot, though. The Buckeyes have given up just nine touchdowns in 11 games this season as they rank first in the nation in total and scoring defense.
Of course, Ohio State’s offense also has a Heisman candidate in quarterback Julian Sayin — and he might not be the best player on the unit. Wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (69 receptions, 902 yards, 10 touchdowns) is widely regarded as the top player in the nation, although he and fellow star wide receiver Carnell Tate are both dealing with injuries.
A win over Michigan on Saturday would also send Ohio State to the Big Ten Championship Game. But just like Indiana, Ohio State seems like a certainty to play in the CFP.
Can Michigan beat Ohio State for a fifth time to get into the CFP? 👀
3. Texas A&M
Outside of the Big Ten, Texas A&M is the only other undefeated team in the nation. The Aggies have had a resurgence in the second year of Mike Elko’s tenure in College Station, with their defense being among the best in the SEC. But quarterback Marcel Reed has been a big reason for Texas A&M’s success, throwing for 2,752 yards and 25 touchdowns to go with six rushing scores this season.
Texas A&M can reach the SEC Championship Game with a win over Texas on Friday.
Griffin has given Texas Tech plenty of love this season. In fact, he’s put Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez in the No. 1 spot in his Heisman List in consecutive weeks.
“The Heisman Trophy is Jacob Rodriguez’s to lose. If you have a dream of a defensive player to win the Heisman Trophy, then you need to tap in with Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez.”
Rodriguez might be a long shot to win the Heisman, but he and Texas Tech’s defense are a large reason why the Red Raiders are 10-1 this season. Rodriguez has 97 total tackles, seven forced fumbles and four interceptions on the season, while Texas Tech ranks seventh in total defense and fourth in scoring defense.
Texas Tech can clinch a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game with a win over West Virginia on Saturday.
Jacob Rodriguez on Heisman Hopes 🏆 Texas Tech Contending in CFP & more
The rest
5. Oregon
The Ducks picked up their signature win of the season in Week 13, defeating USC at home, 42-27. In what might have been a de facto playoff game, quarterback Dante Moore added to his case for Heisman consideration by throwing for 257 yards, two touchdowns and an interception.
Unlike the top four teams in RGIII’s projections, Oregon doesn’t control its own destiny to reach its conference championship game. It needs to beat Washington on Saturday and for Michigan to upset Ohio State to reach the Big Ten Championship Game. So, the Ducks might have a ceiling that prevents them from getting a first-round bye.
New year, same old Georgia. The Bulldogs are 10-1 going into their regular-season finale against Georgia Tech thanks to strong play from quarterback Gunner Stockton (2,465 passing yards, 361 rushing yards, 27 total touchdowns) and stout defense (top-15 in yards and points allowed).
Georgia needs help to get back to the SEC Championship Game, though. It needs either Texas A&M to lose to Texas or Alabama to lose to Auburn. If neither of those happens, the Bulldogs might be in a similar predicament as Oregon.
Ohio State and Georgia in Joel Klatt’s top 15 😮💨
All the talk in Oxford is about Ole Miss’ head coach. But as we await Lane Kiffin’s decision, remember that the Rebels are 10-1 and seem likely to make the CFP for the first time in program history. Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has been a revelation, but running back Kewan Lacy might be the star of their offense at just 19 years old. He’s rushed for 1,136 yards and 19 touchdowns this season.
Ole Miss takes on Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl on Friday. A win in that game plus losses from Alabama and Texas A&M would send Ole Miss to Atlanta to play for the SEC title.
This might be a surprise inclusion, at least in the top-10 and securing one of the final at-large spots. BYU was ranked 11th in last week’s CFP Poll and held the same spot in the most recent AP Poll, so RGIII’s giving the Cougars a bit of a bump here.
But it’s tough to deny that BYU isn’t among the top teams in the nation. BYU improved to 10-1 on the season with its win at Cincinnati on Saturday. Bear Bachmeier has been one of the best quarterbacks in the Big 12 despite being a freshman, and running back LJ Martin has rushed for 1,134 yards on 5.8 yards per carry this season.
BYU controls its destiny to reach the Big 12 Championship Game, only needing to win at home against UCF on Saturday.
Oklahoma picked up another ranked win on Saturday as it defeated 22nd-ranked Missouri, 17-6. It marked Oklahoma’s third straight win over a ranked team, getting a pair of major road wins against ranked teams — over Tennessee and Alabama — after its home loss to Ole Miss. Oklahoma also defeated Michigan earlier this season, giving it four victories over teams likely to be ranked in this week’s CFP Poll.
The Sooners are out of contention for the SEC title. So, Oklahoma’s game at home against LSU on Saturday might be a must-win situation for its CFP hopes.
The last at-large spot in RGIII’s CFP projection goes to … Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish certainly seem worthy of a CFP bid after their thrashing of Syracuse on Saturday, winning 70-7. Notre Dame appeared to win that game 70-0 before Syracuse scored a touchdown in the final seconds.
Notre Dame’s win marked its ninth in a row, overcoming tough, close losses to Miami (Fla.) and Texas A&M to open the season. Notre Dame gets the nod over Alabama here, which some might view as controversial due to the Crimson Tide’s marquee wins this year (Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Tennessee). Some other notable at-large teams that RGIII has Notre Dame making it over are Vanderbilt, Miami, Utah, Michigan and Texas.
Notre Dame takes on Stanford in its regular-season finale on Saturday. With no conference championship game to play for, that’s essentially a must-win game for the Fighting Irish.
11. Virginia
RGIII has the Cavaliers as the ACC representative in the CFP. Virginia is 9-2 this season and might have the easiest path to making the ACC Championship Game. It just needs to beat three-win Virginia Tech at home on Saturday to play in the conference title game.
SMU is the only other ACC team that has a win-and-in game entering Week 14, needing to beat Cal on the road to play in the ACC Championship Game. Beyond that, the scenarios are convoluted as six teams are still in the hunt.
Miami, who is the highest-ranked team in the ACC, actually has a pretty complicated path to make the CFP. It needs to win and get losses from at least one of Virginia, SMU or Duke, if not more. There’s also a scenario in which Miami’s path to the ACC Championship Game could be determined by SportSource Analytics rankings.
Finally, for the Group of 5 representative, RGIII picked James Madison. The Dukes weren’t ranked in the most recent CFP Poll, with Tulane being the only Group of 5 team to be included. But James Madison (No. 20) was the highest-ranked Group of 5 team in the most recent AP Poll.
James Madison also might have an easier path to CFP than the other Group of 5 teams. It has already clinched a spot in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game and plays six-win Coastal Carolina on Saturday.
Potential first-round matchups:
No. 12 James Madison vs. No. 5 Oregon
No. 9 Oklahoma vs. No. 8 BYU
No. 11 Virginia vs. No. 6 Georgia
No. 10 Notre Dame vs. No. 7 Ole Miss
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