rising traits and predictions for 2026

This yr marked a major change for the worldwide mining trade because it navigated the influence of rising geopolitical tensions on commodity markets whereas racing to fulfill calls to decarbonise operations.

Eagle-eyed on crucial minerals important to the power transition, together with copper, lithium and uncommon earths, international locations ramped up efforts this yr to safe provide and strengthen provide chains towards geopolitical danger. The West is eager to problem China’s market dominance via protectionist insurance policies, in addition to strategic alliances involving international minerals.

Because the demand for international crucial minerals soars, mining operators are additionally more and more utilizing transformative applied sciences to optimise productiveness and handle challenges throughout the worth chain.

The mining trade has been topic to the fallout of ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical shifts all through 2025, with commerce relations reshaping provide dynamics as international locations compete for transition minerals.

China is the gatekeeper of among the world’s largest mineral provides. It dominates the manufacturing of over 15 crucial minerals, a lot of that are crucial to the power transition. For some, equivalent to gallium and magnesium, China’s share of worldwide manufacturing is so dominant (98% and 95%, respectively) that there’s nearly no competitors.

The Asian nation additionally accounts for 40% of the globe’s uncommon earth reserves, together with neodymium, dysprosium, praseodymium and terbium. Its affect is even better in separation and refining, representing about 91% of worldwide capabilities.

Recognising the dangers related to over-reliance on China, international locations have been speeding to diversify their provide chains this yr. The US led on this effort, which unravelled right into a full-blown commerce struggle.

What started with Trump saying a ten% tariff on Chinese language imports in February and China retaliating with 10%-15% tariffs on sure US items, alongside export controls on 25 uncommon earths, spiralled intoa wave of stricter tariffs which culminated in a 145% tariff price on Chinese language items from the US and a 125% counter price from China. When the US confirmed no indicators of backing out, China expanded its export restrictions to incorporate not solely extra uncommon earths but additionally lithium-ion batteries and graphite anode supplies – all crucial for the power transition.

“With China’s sturdy management over uncommon earths and different key minerals, its export restrictions this yr uncovered the dependence of worldwide automakers, electronics producers and power producers on Chinese language capability,” says Gayathri Siripurapu, affiliate venture supervisor at MINE’s mother or father firm, GlobalData.

Because the yr attracts to an in depth, the US and China have de-escalated their tensions, with the US lowering the general tariff on Chinese language items to round 47% and China suspending export bans and issuing new licenses.

Nevertheless, Siripurapu believes that there’s additional potential for trade-related battle, with the US–China rivalry “anticipated to proceed to form most provide chain disruptions in 2026”.

The US represents international locations internationally which have sought to not solely make investments extra in home manufacturing but additionally set up new commerce companions to beat dependence on Chinese language minerals.

As an illustration, the US and one other trade chief, Australia, signed a uncommon earths deal in October 2025 to construct on present investments and insurance policies to determine a aggressive and diversified minerals market. A key part of the deal entails each international locations figuring out precedence initiatives to safe provide chains. The US and Australia have agreed to finance $1bn (A$1.54bn) for initiatives in each international locations inside six months.

The US has additionally sought funding alternatives in Africa whereas Australia has regarded in the direction of Brazil and Indonesia.

Rebecca Campbell, international head of mining and metals at White & Case, says that different crucial mineral-producing nations equivalent to Indonesia, Chile and plenty of African international locations have gotten far more assertive about worth seize, pushing for native processing and better participation from authorities to construct up their industries as a Chinese language various.

Worth seize is the method of recovering some or all the worth public infrastructure creates for personal landowners.

Campbell says: “Add conflicts within the Center East and Ukraine, elevating the price and complexity of transport, and you’ve got a world the place provide chains are now not impartial, however more and more formed by political alignment.”

Siripurapu provides that mining and downstream industries are prioritising safety of provide over lowest-cost sourcing, prompting diversification into new areas, long-term offtake agreements and investments in regional refining capability.

As the broader power trade made additional headway in its decarbonisation ambitions this yr, copper demand stays sturdy, as one other critically necessary materials for the power transition, however it’s unsure whether or not provide can sustain.

World copper mine output is projected to develop by 2.1% by the tip of 2025 to 23.4 million tonnes (mt), up from 22.9mt in 2024. The modest progress is primarily on account of manufacturing declines in key areas.

Copper manufacturing skilled a number of hits this yr, together with a mud rush at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg block cave mine in Indonesia, which prompted seven fatalities, after which it paused operations. Antofagasta additionally introduced in October that manufacturing for 2025 would solely attain the decrease degree of its earlier forecast on account of operational points equivalent to rising enter prices for diesel and water shortages in Northern Chile.

In 2026, manufacturing ranges are anticipated recuperate barely, with GlobalData anticipating a 4.7% progress to 24.5mt primarily from elevated output from Chile, Peru, DR Congo, Indonesia and China. Nevertheless, Siripurapu notes that even with this new output, “the market continues to be projected to be tight”, and provide dangers, together with allowing delays, grade declines and social instability, will proceed to weigh on the trade.

Renewables overtook coal in energy era for the primary time, signifying a pivotal level within the power transition.

Coal manufacturing solely elevated marginally this yr, with GlobalData projecting a 1.2% output from 2024 to succeed in 9,333mt.

Nevertheless, it’s notable {that a} web improve in capability continues to be forecast over the following decade, which can proceed to buoy coal’s function throughout the energy combine.

Siripurapu notes that whereas many superior economies are shifting away from coal and scaling up renewables, the shift is uneven internationally.

“International locations like India, China and people in Southeast Asia will proceed to depend on coal for reasonably priced, round the clock energy, which can maintain demand and manufacturing from falling sharply,” she explains.

Wanting towards 2026, GlobalData initiatives that international coal manufacturing will proceed to extend, although reflecting continued weak output from China, alongside oversupply in Indonesia and the US.

Siripurapu provides: “On the availability aspect, manufacturing progress is more likely to come from India, Australia, South Africa and Russia, offsetting declines in China and the US. With funding in new coal mines slowing on account of environmental, social and governance pressures, the market is unlikely to grow to be oversupplied, which implies costs will soften however stay supported by persistent demand.”

In the meantime, historic good points for gold and silver, considered as safe-haven belongings by traders, additionally outlined 2025.

Gold costs soared to a peak of round $4,380 per ounce in October and by greater than 50% this yr. The surge was pushed by rising funding demand amid elements equivalent to geopolitical tensions, greenback weak spot and anticipated US Federal Reserve cuts.

Silver surpassed its earlier document of $49.45 set in 1980, reaching over $60 per ounce in 2025.

In abstract, Campbell says: “Unprecedented ranges of demand in copper and valuable metals replicate the place the sector is concentrating its strategic consideration.

“Electrification, grid growth and energy-transition infrastructure will proceed to drive intense curiosity in copper initiatives, sluggish curiosity in coal, whereas geopolitical uncertainty and rising industrial demand are retaining valuable metals firmly in focus.”

The decarbonisation of the mining trade is not any straightforward feat. Campbell explains that operators are coping with constrained entry to charging programs, energy provide and batteries for ultra-class vans.

However, many main corporations are persevering with to push ahead to align with the worldwide goal of reaching web zero by – the most recent – 2050, and electrification is on the coronary heart of those efforts.

Mining corporations are actually planning their substitute cycles round electrification moderately than treating it as an experiment, Campbell says. This yr has seen appreciable progress within the trade’s electrification, with a continued rise in the usage of battery-electric autos (BEVs) on mining websites.

As of March 2025, GlobalData recorded in underground mines throughout the globe 271 trolley-assist vans working on floor mines in comparison with 239 a yr in the past; 293 electrical loaders, up from 269; and 89 electrical vans, up from 69 a yr in the past. The variety of battery-powered floor vans, in the meantime, elevated from 129 to 387.

“Electrification is changing into a sensible operational alternative. Underground mines specifically are shifting rapidly as a result of BEVs [battery-electric vehicles] genuinely scale back air flow prices and enhance working circumstances,” says Campbell.

She notes that the know-how has matured this yr, with main unique gear producers (OEMs) investing closely in bettering BEVs.

“It’s not a revolution in a single day, however the needle is clearly shifting quicker than it did even a yr in the past.”

Siripurapu factors out that usually, the tempo of transition is not going to be uniform throughout areas, as the price of BEV know-how and the dearth of charging infrastructure proceed to be main obstacles – notably for distant operations and in rising markets.

“In 2026, the sharpest progress in BEV deployment is anticipated in Australia, Canada, Sweden, Finland and Chile, the place nationwide insurance policies, renewable-energy availability and robust miner-OEM collaboration are creating conducive adoption environments. Australia is more likely to stay the worldwide frontrunner,” she provides.

Additionally essential to the know-how improve the trade has skilled this yr is autonomous gear. GlobalData reveals that the share of autonomous, autonomous-ready or tele-remote mining gear adopted has elevated quickly in recent times to over 4% from lower than 1% in 2020.

As of July 2025, GlobaData discovered 3,832 autonomous haul vans working on floor mines throughout the globe. This determine consists of each these which might be working autonomously and people which might be autonomous-ready.

In Could, XCMG introduced the roll-out of the primary 100-unit totally autonomous, all-electric vans at Inside Mongolian Huaneng Yimin open-pit coal mine, in China. Epiroc and Hancock Iron Ore additionally launched a landmark venture in October on the Roy Hill open-pit iron mine, within the Pilbara area of Australia, changing 78 haul vans, 60 of them allotted to autonomous operation, to create the world’s largest totally agnostic autonomous mine.

Campbell feedback: “Giant open-pit operations have already proven how highly effective autonomy will be: greater productiveness, fewer security incidents and the power to run constantly in distant areas the place attracting labour is getting tougher yearly.

“The know-how is bettering rapidly, and importantly, corporations are getting extra snug with the authorized and operational frameworks equivalent to knowledge possession, legal responsibility and cyber danger. Governments are additionally catching up with clearer regulatory guidelines.

“In 2026, we anticipate to see autonomy unfold past the same old Pilbara-style pioneers into huge copper and gold operations throughout the Americas and Africa. It will not be common, however will probably be considerably extra mainstream.”

“Mining in 2025: rising traits and predictions for 2026 ” was initially created and revealed by Mining Expertise, a GlobalData owned model.

The knowledge on this web site has been included in good religion for basic informational functions solely. It isn’t supposed to quantity to recommendation on which you need to rely, and we give no illustration, guarantee or assure, whether or not specific or implied as to its accuracy or completeness. You need to get hold of skilled or specialist recommendation earlier than taking, or refraining from, any motion on the premise of the content material on our web site.