The months of debating and bickering are over. The School Soccer Playoff begins this weekend with precise postseason video games that may produce definitive outcomes we now not have to argue about. It is now not “win and hope the loss seems to be spectacular sufficient.” It is win or go house.
Whether or not your emotions had been damage about your crew, or any crew, being ignored or included would not matter anymore. Nor does the attainable existential disaster brought on by being pressured to look at not one, however two Group of 5 groups play in playoff video games.
And the one factor that actually would not matter now? How poorly it’s possible you’ll or could not have carried out in your weekly picks column this season.
What do you imply that is oddly particular? I am merely mentioning that should you had the worst document of your life in a weekly picks column you’ve got been publishing for 15 years, it now not issues. We wipe the slate clear within the playoffs. It would not matter should you went 13-0, 10-3 or one thing far worse.
What issues now’s that you simply’re right here and you’ve got an opportunity to be a champion.
Miami’s sudden inclusion in the playoff field caused plenty of controversy, but it also gives us one of the more intriguing first-round matchups. These teams are similar in a lot of ways, which makes this game fascinating. Both are strong along the lines of scrimmage, yet there are legitimate questions about how each will look against an opponent capable of matching that physicality. Neither has faced many teams like this all season.
We’ve also seen the Texas A&M defense struggle against quality offenses. Yes, it beat Notre Dame on the road earlier this season, but it also allowed 40 points in that game, 42 to Arkansas, 30 to South Carolina and even 24 and 22 to UTSA and Utah State to open the year. Miami’s defense has been more consistent, but it has not faced many offenses with receivers like KC Concepcion and Mario Craver.
It’s also worth noting what happened in Miami’s two losses. Louisville’s Chris Bell went off for 136 yards and two touchdowns, and SMU’s Jordan Hudson — no, not that one — also posted 136 receiving yards against the Canes.
My suspicion is that both secondaries have benefited from playing behind strong pass rushes and could struggle when that pressure is neutralized. I believe both Miami’s and Texas A&M’s offensive lines are capable of slowing the opposing pass rush to a degree few teams have managed this season. Both offenses are balanced and talented enough at the skill positions to take advantage of that extra time.
I don’t expect a 45-42 shootout, but I do think this game produces more points than the total suggests. The Pick: Over 48.5 (-114) at Fanduel
If you go back to the first meeting, which Ole Miss won 45-10, there’s a valid argument to be made that Tulane got game-scripted out of it quickly. Jake Retzlaff, who joined Tulane late in the offseason and wasn’t fully familiar with his new team yet, started 0-for-9, and it was quickly 13-0 Ole Miss, which forced Tulane to play a style of football that doesn’t suit it.
It all makes plenty of sense, and I can envision a scenario where the Tulane offense performs much better here. What I’m having a much tougher time seeing is how Tulane stops Ole Miss from putting up points. The Rebels finished with 548 yards and averaged 7.9 per play in the game. They stopped themselves a couple of times in the red zone and had to settle for two field goals, leaving points on the board. If Ole Miss finishes those two drives, it’s a 52-10 win rather than 45-10.
I know there are question marks surrounding the Rebels’ offense here because of the whole Lane Kiffin saga. I have no idea how that will impact things in the game. Charlie Weis Jr, the team’s offensive coordinator, is with the team for the playoff run, but we don’t know how much influence Kiffin had with playcalling during games. It’s not crazy to think his absence could lead to a few more mistakes made by the Rebels’ offense, or maybe new coach Pete Golding, the defensive coordinator, is more conservative with fourth-down decisions than Kiffin was. My guess is that, considering the emotional circumstances at play and that this is a home game in Oxford, which could allow Ole Miss fans, players, and coaches who have been frustrated by the whole situation to let it all out, we’ll see the same aggressive approach as always. The Pick: Ole Miss Team Total Over 37.5 (-108) at Fanduel
I feel bad for James Madison. All it did was go out there and win every game it could and win its conference. Then it was chosen to compete in the CFP, and the world lost its mind about it. You’ve got college football literati out here reacting to the Dukes being in the playoff field as they carry some highly spreadable incurable disease that will not only destroy college football, but possibly human civilization.
To be blunt, I do not believe James Madison can win the national title, but if the ability to actually win the CFP was part of the criteria for selection, I’d argue that means we need to eliminate at least half the field. Frankly, unlike seven of the teams in the field, at least the Dukes qualified for it by winning their conference instead of being chosen by a group full of people nobody seems to trust. The way I view it, James Madison either loses as we all expect it to, or it pulls off a stunning upset that we remember forever, and isn’t that what sports are ultimately about as a fan? It’s a memory-making business.
But I digress.
I do expect James Madison to lose, but if the Dukes keep it close, they’ll do so because of their run game and because their defense does enough to limit Oregon’s explosive plays. If Oregon blows the Dukes out, considering how banged up it’s been down the stretch, I would expect Dan Lanning and company to take a cautious “let’s just get out of here and get ready for next week” approach to the second half. Both of those scenarios strike me as lower-scoring affairs. The Pick: Under 47.5 (-110) at Fanduel
