What a Saturday of college football we have in store.
The long-anticipated rematch of last season’s Big Ten Championship Game will take place this weekend, as Oregon and Penn State each face their first big test of the year. We have another installation of the epic Alabama–Georgia rivalry, and two other SEC teams will meet up in a top-15 matchup.
I’ll also be at a ranked game this weekend when USC takes on Illinois on “Big Noon Saturday.” I won’t pick for that game, but watch out for USC. As I laid out in my conversation with Matt Leinart on “The Joel Klatt Show,” I think the Trojans are underrated at this point, with Saturday potentially serving as a coming out party for USC and its top stars.
That said, let’s take a closer look at this weekend’s top matchups.
USC looks for a 5-0 start as they travel to Illinois
I’m really encouraged by USC’s run game. Head coach Lincoln Riley is always at his best when his teams are dominant on the ground, and that’s what USC has been so far this season with Waymond Jordan and others at running back. That offensive line is also a lot better, bigger and more physical than it has been in recent years. So, this offense looks like the Riley offenses we saw at Oklahoma, as it ranks No. 1 in the country in yards per play, second in yards per attempt and third in yards per carry.
USC’s competition to this point hasn’t been great, but I think Michigan State is better than people thought and USC’s offensive performance in that game was outstanding. Quarterback Jayden Maiava led the way, and on a recent episode of my podcast, Leinart made a great observation that Maiava reminds him a lot more of a Baker Mayfield or Kyler Murray-style quarterback. That obviously helped those two quarterbacks win a Heisman Trophy with Riley, with Oklahoma having the most prolific offenses during their tenures at quarterback. If you were making a Heisman shortlist right now, Maiava should be on it — and this game could serve as a coming out party for him.
Jayden Maiava has helped USC have the second-best passing offense so far this season. (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images)
As for Illinois, the last time we saw the Fighting Illini, they gave up 63 points in a blowout loss at Indiana last week. The Hoosiers’ offense was clicking on all cylinders, throwing and running the ball well. However, the injury situation is devastating for Illinois right now, as it didn’t have any of its starters in the secondary by the fourth quarter of last week’s game. Illinois could get all those guys back, but if it doesn’t, its defense might be in for another long day.
Illinois’ offense will also take on a USC defense that has been really getting after the quarterback as well. As USC enters the week tied for the most sacks in the nation (16.0), here’s a great stat: the average weight of a USC defensive lineman this year is 300 pounds, which is up from 278 pounds last year. So, USC’s now ready and more established to go on the road and play Big Ten football.
This is one of the games we’ve been waiting for since this offseason. It’s a rematch of last year’s Big Ten title game, which was a game that Oregon has famously talked about, as we’ve discussed how Penn State hasn’t been able to win these types of games. Penn State has lost 14 consecutive regular-season games since it defeated Ohio State in 2016.
If you recall, that win was in a whiteout environment for Penn State. Saturday’s game will also be a whiteout, making it a tough environment for young Oregon quarterback Dante Moore. He hasn’t really seen such an environment so far, and this Oregon team is probably going to have to run the football well. Luckily, Oregon is six-deep at running back, and I like its offensive line a lot. I think Moore is built for this moment, but it feels inevitable that the environment will cause some issues at some point for Oregon.
As for Penn State, it has been a bit underwhelming against a schedule that is not all that formidable. One of the things that I’m concerned about for Penn State is the fact it hasn’t thrown the ball well. I really believe that Drew Allar can be a great quarterback, but he hasn’t spun the ball with a lot of efficiency so far this season. PSU hasn’t lit anyone up in the passing game. It’s good that Penn State has a strong running game with Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, but it would be nice to see the Nittany Lions light up an inferior opponent with a 300-yard passing game. That’s a troubling aspect if you’re looking at this game from a Penn State point of view.
Drew Allar has thrown for 626 yards through the first three games of the season. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
One thing Penn State has going its way entering this game, though, is that Oregon didn’t defend the run well against Northwestern a couple of weeks ago. I’m sure head coach Dan Lanning has been focusing on Oregon’s run defense ever since that game, but it better have that figured out because Penn State will threaten it in the run game.
I think this game will be a classic that gets determined in the final moments. Ultimately, the environment will make the difference, and while Penn State has struggled in these matchups, it has to have a sense of urgency to win this game. I don’t think Oregon has to win this game.
Pick: Penn State 31, Oregon 30 (Oregon +3.5)
Another monster matchup. Alabama has looked a lot better since its Week 1 flop, and Georgia has been as impressive as any team in the nation so far this season with its road win at Tennessee in Week 3. The Bulldogs showed me that the SEC still runs through Georgia in that game — and guess what? Georgia doesn’t lose at home, either, as it has the longest home win streak in the country.
A lot of time will be spent on talking about head coach Kirby Smart’s poor record against Alabama. Yes, most of those games came against Nick Saban. And yes, Smart lost to Kalen DeBoer last season, but the other thing that has to be considered is this: all seven of Smart’s games against Alabama have taken place outside of Athens. They’ve all been at a neutral site or at Alabama.
Alabama also has a worrying trend in road games early in the DeBoer era. Not only has it lost four road games since the start of last season, but it has also lost those games in bad fashion. It played a really poor and uninspired game against Vanderbilt last year. It played terrible football at Oklahoma last season, too. The Florida State game this season was bad as well, especially when you consider that it had an entire offseason to prepare for that matchup.
Do I think that Alabama is all of a sudden going to be ready to beat Georgia? No, not with the confidence that Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton inspired with the win over Tennessee a couple of weeks ago. I know Alabama signal-caller Ty Simpson has been great — and Georgia’s defense might not be great at slowing him down — but I’m just not sure how much it matters because Georgia’s pass defense wasn’t good against Tennessee, and it still won that game.
Gunner Stockton led Georgia to a comeback win over Tennessee in Week 3. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
When you consider all of that and that you have the opportunity to take Georgia to win by at least a field goal? Of course, I’m going to take that.
Pick: Georgia 38, Alabama 31 (Georgia -2.5)
This is a sneaky great game this weekend. This week, I made a pretty big rant about Washington not receiving votes in the latest AP poll. There’s no reason the Huskies shouldn’t be ranked outright. This is a much better team than that.
Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin will make his first road start in this matchup. We know that’s difficult, and Washington is the most underrated home environment in college football. The record suggests that. In fact, Washington has the second-longest home win streak in the nation, winning its last 22 home games.
Julian Sayin makes his first road start vs. Washington
Ultimately, I think Ohio State will struggle in this game. I think the Buckeyes might play it safe, which is what we saw head coach Ryan Day and offensive coordinator Brian Hartline do against Texas in Week 1. They didn’t want to expose Sayin and the young players in that game, and they have to understand that what they’re going to face is something fierce. They shouldn’t want to risk throwing an early interception that can get that crowd going.
That said, I think Ohio State will lean on its defense, which leads to a matchup I’m excited to watch. Matt Patricia’s Ohio State defense really stifled Texas in the season opener, using creativity to disguise coverage. If you were going to build a defense that can combat a quarterback that can move around and make plays like Demond Williams, you would have a second and third level like Ohio State’s with linebackers Sonny Styles and Arvell Reese plus safety Caleb Downs. If Williams tries to get loose, I think Ohio State can stop him.
Demond Williams is one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the country. (Photo by Oliver McKenna/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
The spread might be too much for Ohio State to cover, but I think it plays well enough to win the game.
Pick: Ohio State 28, Washington 21 (Washington +8.5)
There are some fair questions about LSU’s offense but no questions about its defense. That’s why it surprised me to see Ole Miss favored by 1.5 in this game because I thought LSU should be a five- or six-point favorite.
What am I missing looking at the spread for this game? Sure, LSU has struggled running the ball, with head coach Brian Kelly now infamously getting asked about that after the win over Florida, but Ole Miss isn’t as good as Florida on defense. It’s also not as good as Florida stopping the run, ranking 121st at stopping the run, so I don’t think LSU will struggle to run the ball Saturday, and I think its offense finally gets going.
Ole Miss is great on offense, though, and if you’ve been following along with this matchup on social media this week, he might have some extra motivation. Head coach Lake Kiffin even said “take the over” in this game, so pedal to the metal, even if there are questions with Ole Miss at quarterback. If Ole Miss goes with Trinidad Chambliss, it’ll be starting a quarterback who threw for 300 yards and rushed for 100 yards against Tulane in its last game.
Trinidad Chambliss has thrown for over 300 yards in both starts this season. (Photo by Andy Altenburger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
I believe LSU’s offense will get better moving forward. Everything suggests that it will. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier won’t continue to struggle. Kelly’s teams won’t continue to struggle on the offensive side of the ball. I think LSU is the better team and is better than it was a year ago, when it beat Ole Miss. Ole Miss might be similar to South Carolina or Illinois, who we overrated entering the year.
So, I think LSU gets the win in a high-scoring affair.
Pick: LSU 38, Ole Miss 35 (LSU +1.5)
Joel Klatt is FOX Sports’ lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast “The Joel Klatt Show.” Follow him @joelklatt and subscribe to “The Joel Klatt Show” on YouTube.
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