There are two issues you are able to do when going through adversity. You’ll be able to both run from it or face it head-on and determine what it’s you will need to do to beat it. Dealing with it’s no assure of success, nevertheless it actually gives a greater probability of doing so than operating away.
Alternatively, operating away is the far simpler possibility! Like, perhaps the issue will simply go away? You by no means know! It is occurred earlier than!
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I convey this up as a result of The Six Pack is going through loads of adversity. We went 0-6 final week, of us. It is not the primary time it is occurred, nevertheless it occurs at a time once we’ve been treading water all season. Now we’re below it, and we have to determine a method to keep away from drowning.
It will not be simple, however I consider we will do it. I cannot run from this. I’ll work tougher. I’ll discover the sunshine on the finish of the tunnel, and I’ll lead us to it. There will definitely be extra bumps, but when we will survive an 0-6 week, we will survive something.
Until, in fact, we do not survive, and that is simply the beginning of a unending free fall. Wait, no! We won’t let the damaging ideas win! Constructive vibes solely! We have this!
Video games of the Week
No. 5 Ole Miss at No. 9 Georgia: These are two teams I don’t have much confidence in this year, which makes it somewhat amusing that they’re both ranked in the top 10. In truth, it comes down to the fact that I don’t trust either quarterback much. I know Trinidad Chambliss has been a pleasant surprise, but the best defense he’s faced was LSU, and it was his worst performance. I know he threw for 314 yards, but that was more volume-based, seeing as how he threw the ball 39 times and hasn’t thrown it more than 29 times in any other game.
That said, I like Chambliss more than I do Gunner Stockton! I’m on the record with my belief that the Bulldogs aren’t nearly as good along the lines of scrimmage as we’re used to, which makes having a plucky, game-manager type at QB much more of a detriment than it has in years past. I also think Stockton is a major reason we’ve seen Georgia get off to slow starts in games, and that’s what I’m leaning into here.
Georgia has played four SEC games this season and has been outscored in the first half of those games 62-55. It trailed Tennessee 21-17 at halftime, it trailed Alabama 24-14, and it was down 10-3 at halftime (and could’ve been down a lot more). The only team it had a halftime lead against was Kentucky, and, well, Kentucky stinks. Ole Miss does not.
To Georgia’s credit, it’s done a phenomenal job in the second halves of those games, but there’s no reason to believe Ole Miss won’t get off to a good start here. Did you watch them against Washington State last week? What is it about that performance that makes you believe the Rebels spent more time worrying about a game plan for the Cougars than they probably spent working on the Dawgs? I don’t know if the Rebels will have a halftime lead, nor do I know they’ll pull off another upset over Georgia, but they’ll hang around through 30 minutes. The Pick: Ole Miss 1st Half +4.5 (-115) via DraftKings
No. 11 Tennessee at No. 6 Alabama: A funny thing has happened to Alabama in SEC play. After playing in games that saw an average of 57.7 points in nonconference play, none of Alabama’s three SEC games have seen more than 45 points scored. While Ty Simpson has continued to make big plays when needed and looks like one of the best quarterbacks in the country, on the whole, the Alabama offense has been far choppier against SEC opponents.
That shouldn’t come as a huge surprise, but the drop-off has been significant. They’ve gone from a success rate of 48.5% and 4.27 points per drive out of conference to 43.8% and 2.70 in conference. They haven’t been able to run the ball nearly as effectively, even with the addition of Jam Miller. I don’t know how well they’ll run the ball in this matchup, nor do I know how well Tennessee will run the ball, and that could be a much bigger problem for the Vols.
Tennessee fans were spiking the football over the Joey Aguilar for Nico Iamaleava swap early, and rightfully so. I still think Aguilar has performed better in this offense than Nico did, but Aguilar’s come back to Earth quite a bit. His touchdown rate in conference play has been nearly halved, while his interception rate has practically quadrupled. He’s been pressured far more often and has not handled it well. All of which leads me to believe that, unless there are touchdowns scored on defense or special teams, this game is far more likely to stay under the total than not. The Pick: Under 58.5 (-108) via DraftKings
Lock of the Week
Georgia State at Georgia Southern: Here’s a line that stood out to me when it was first posted. At first glance, you may look at Georgia Southern’s 2-4 record on the season and wonder why it would be favored by this much over anybody, even a 1-5 Georgia State squad. Well, it’s simple: Georgia Southern’s a better football team than Georgia State!
Southern opened the year with road games against Fresno State and USC, and it was predictably beaten soundly. It also faced James Madison, one of the Sun Belt’s best, on the road and lost by 25. Last week, it lost to Southern Miss at home by three, and Southern Miss is up there with James Madison as one of the Sun Belt’s best teams. At home, this Eagles offense is averaging 40.3 points per game.
Georgia State? The Panthers have scored more than 21 points in one game this season, and it was against Murray State. Against FBS competition (which has included Ole Miss, Memphis and Vanderbilt, mind you), it’s averaging 14.2 points per game. I don’t think the Panthers will score enough to keep up here. The Pick: Georgia Southern -6.5 (-115) via FanDuel
Home Dog of the Week
No. 14 Oklahoma at South Carolina: Fun little side note here. Former South Carolina QB Spencer Rattler transferred to South Carolina from Oklahoma after losing his job to Caleb Williams. On Sunday, Spencer Rattler’s Saints will face Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears. So this game can be considered something of a Spencer Rattler Revenge Weekend appetizer.
That’s not why I’m picking the Gamecocks to cover; I’m just amused by those games being played on the same weekend. No, the reason I’m picking South Carolina to cover is that the Gamecocks have one of the best pass rushes in college football, and Oklahoma still has one of the worst offensive lines in college football. I firmly believe the Gamecocks can get pressure on John Mateer and force him into the same kinds of mistakes we saw last week against Texas. I believe this because those Mateer mistakes were nothing new. The only thing different last week was that Texas’ defensive backs didn’t drop the interceptions like Michigan and Auburn did.
I don’t see either one of these offenses doing much of anything, which makes the under an enticing option as well, but what pushes me more toward South Carolina is a trend that’s hard to ignore in the SEC. There have been 21 SEC conference games played on campus this season, and the home team is 14-6-1 ATS in those games. As an underdog, the home team is 4-1-1. It pays to bet the home team in SEC play so far. The Pick: South Carolina +5.5 (-110) via Draftkings
Team Total of the Week
Wyoming at Air Force: Listen, not every bet is fun, all right? Sometimes, when you’re suffering, you need to subject yourself to even more suffering to find the release of joy. That’s what we’re doing here, because betting on Wyoming’s offense isn’t an exciting proposition.
Unless you consider betting on an offense that ranks 121st nationally in points per possession, 102nd in success rate and 106th in explosive play rate to be a great time. I don’t, but we’re playing the matchup here.
As bad as Wyoming’s offense is, Air Force’s defense is even worse. Like, horrifically worse. Think of the worst movie you’ve ever seen, and it’s a better movie than Air Force’s defense is a defense. The Falcons opened their season by holding Bucknell to 13 points. They haven’t allowed fewer than 34 since, and that was against Navy, which ran up 517 yards of offense and did more to stop itself in that game than anything.
Air Force ranks dead last in the country in points allowed per possession at 3.69. They have allowed explosive plays on 18.16% of snaps they’ve faced, which also ranks dead last. The 8.1 yards they allow per play? You guessed it, the worst in the country. But, don’t worry, their defensive success rate of 54.0% ranks 120th, so it’s not all horrific! The Pick: Wyoming Team Total Over 26.5 (-125) via FanDuel
Upset of the Week
Purdue at Northwestern: Here’s the thing about Purdue. It’s not very good, but it’s not horrible, either. We saw a glimpse of that last week when the Boilermakers went on the road to face Minnesota and were in that game until the end, even leading after three quarters. They hung around with Illinois and USC, too. They were only embarrassed by Notre Dame. According to FPI, the Boilermakers have played the 16th most difficult schedule in the country, and they’ve hung tough most of the time.
Northwestern’s a much easier matchup. Yes, the Wildcats have won three straight. They’re the last team to beat UCLA, and they got James Franklin fired last week. However, last week’s upset was more about Penn State beating itself than Northwestern beating it. Don’t get me wrong, this Northwestern team isn’t nearly as bad as last year’s squad was, either, but I like Purdue’s offense better. If the Boilermakers are able to turn this game into a shootout, they’ve got a much better shot of winning this game than they’re getting credit for. Also, while Purdue’s defense hasn’t been great, Northwestern’s not a bad matchup for them. Beware the Boilermakers on Saturday. The Pick: Purdue (+138) via FanDuel
|
Games of the Week |
0-2 |
6-8 |
-3.75 |
|
Lock of the Week |
0-1 |
1-6 |
-5.61 |
| Upset of the Week | 0-1 | 1-6 | -4.07 |
|
Overall |
0-6 |
19-23 |
-6.90 |
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