It is do-or-die time for a number of NFL groups in NFL Week 18, however some others are merely wanting towards the NFL Draft. Each video games Saturday will resolve NFC divisions, with the Buccaneers vs. Panthers to find out the South title and Seahawks vs. 49ers to resolve the West and the convention’s high seed. Many groups enjoying Sunday have already been eradicated from the postseason, so gauging motivation is a key piece to profitable Week 18 NFL betting. NFL betting skilled Jeff Hochman has scoured the schedule with that in thoughts and has put collectively two three-leg money-line parlays for Week 18, with one consisting solely of favorites, and the opposite of three underdogs.
NFL three-team favourite cash line parlay advantages
Betting heavy favorites is usually a strong technique if you wish to guess on a three-team NFL cash line parlay. This method focuses on groups with odds of -150 or higher, which suggests you lean in direction of high-probability outcomes. By pairing three groups that often have odds between -150 and -350 and even greater, you are not solely aiming for constant, modest returns, however you are additionally stacking the deck in your favor for the next probability of profitable. Bear in mind that you may nonetheless parlay a favourite with odds of -140 or much less to keep away from laying 2.5 factors, which may considerably impression your possibilities of profitable. Bear in mind, it’s a must to win all three legs for a profitable wager.
Based on BetMGM knowledge, NFL cash line favorites at -115 or shorter posted a 68% win proportion in 2023, with a 66.5% price in 2022. Over the six-season interval from 2018-24, NFL cash line favorites maintained a 66.6% win price (1,013-508-7). The power of favorites correlates straight with their odds. In sports activities betting, should you see groups with odds between -150 and -200, they often have a strong probability of profitable, with round a 60-65% success price. Groups which can be even greater favorites, with odds from -250 to -400, are usually extra dependable, exhibiting win charges of about 70-80%. The 2024 NFL season stood out for favorites, with an total win price hitting at 71.8%.
It wasn’t till Week 17 that NFL betting favorites suffered their worst efficiency of the season, going simply 9-7. Over the complete yr, favorites are nonetheless profitable at a strong price — 171 out of 255 video games (67.0%) — although that is nicely behind final season’s 71.8% mark. With Week 18 approaching, the true query is will favorites reassert themselves, or are underdogs poised to shut out the season on a excessive word? Try Jeff’s high money-line parlays that includes each favorites and underdogs.
Week 18 NFL cash line favorites parlay
Dallas Cowboys over New York Giants
We have reached the ultimate week of the common season — a notoriously troublesome time to seek out betting worth, as oddsmakers have accounted for almost each angle. Nevertheless, this matchup stands out: the Dallas Cowboys are clearly the proper facet on the cash line.
Dak Prescott has dominated the NFC East — notably the Giants, posting a exceptional 14-2 document towards them. Even in a “down” 7-8-1 season, the Cowboys’ league-leading passing assault is an ideal matchup towards a depleted Giants protection lacking its high cross rusher, Kayvon Thibodeaux, who’s now on injured reserve.
The Giants’ run protection is among the many league’s worst, surrendering 145 yards per recreation (thirty first). Even with Javonte Williams banged up, Dallas can flip to Malik Davis or leverage their environment friendly quick passing assault as an extension of the run recreation. With a 3-13 document, New York is already looking forward to the draft. Whereas Dallas could also be disenchanted with its season, it nonetheless boasts a a lot greater offensive flooring (28.4 PPG). In a recreation the place neither protection can persistently get stops, I will again the quarterback who can put up 30+ factors over one whose offense averages 21.7.
Dallas holds benefits in almost each main metric: level differential, web yards per play, third-down and red-zone effectivity, run protection, whole DVOA, particular groups and sack differential. The Cowboys might be motivated to achieve the eight-win mark and keep away from a shedding season. In contrast to the Giants — who look like angling for a top-five draft decide –Dallas is just not a workforce seeking to “tank.” My mannequin makes the Cowboys a six-point favourite or -290 on the cash line.
Cincinnati Bengals over Cleveland Browns
In Week 18, when two non-playoff groups face off, motivation turns into the important thing variable. Bengals coach Zac Taylor has made it clear he is “rolling out the starters” to shut the season with a three-game profitable streak. In the meantime, the 4-12 Browns are limping to the end, hampered by accidents to key offensive starters and targeted extra on draft place. Cleveland is coming off its “Tremendous Bowl” — a win over the Steelers as four-point residence underdogs — however hasn’t received consecutive video games all yr. Their dismal 1-6 highway document gives little optimism.
The distinction in yards per play is putting: Cincinnati averages almost a full yard extra per snap (5.3) than Cleveland (4.4). Over a typical 60-play recreation, that is an additional 50-60 “free” yards for the Bengals — usually equating to a four- to seven-point edge earlier than the sport even begins. Cleveland’s secondary has regressed late within the season, surrendering an opponent passer score close to 97.0. With Joe Burrow confirmed lively, he ought to effectively assault a protection that provides up 27.1 factors per recreation on the highway (twenty sixth within the NFL). This shapes up as a snug Bengals win. My mannequin favors Cincinnati by 9.5 factors, or -520 on the cash line.
Baltimore Ravens over Pittsburgh Steelers
Many bettors will again the Steelers on each the purpose unfold and cash line as previous historical past suggests this matchup is usually determined by a discipline objective. Nevertheless, as I discussed within the SportsLine Discord, that is the best time to fade growing older quarterbacks over 40 who lack mobility within the pocket.
Pittsburgh’s offense seems to be basically completely different with out DK Metcalf (suspended), who accounted for 148 yards of their Week 14 win. In his absence, Aaron Rodgers‘ passer score drops considerably, and the Steelers failed to attain a landing final week towards Cleveland. Baltimore enters with the league’s high dashing assault (157.8 YPG), simply forward of Buffalo. Pittsburgh’s run protection is simply common, and if Baltimore controls possession, the Steelers’ protection may put on down. I am comfy backing the Ravens, whether or not Lamar Jackson or Tyler Huntley is beneath heart.
Baltimore ranks within the high 10 in third-down protection whereas Pittsburgh ranks twenty fifth at getting off the sector. In a high-stakes rivalry, the workforce that extends drives usually wins. The doubtless absence of T.J. Watt (lung) removes Pittsburgh’s lone constant disruptor of the Ravens’ offense. With out his elite edge strain, Baltimore’s Tenth-ranked offense in yards per play (5.7) ought to discover its rhythm. The Steelers are simply 3-10 with out Watt, together with the playoffs. The Ravens have the sting, bolstered by a superior teaching workers.
NFL three-team underdog money-line parlay advantages
A very talked-about choice is on the market should you’re prepared to tackle a bit extra threat for a probably greater reward. Underdog cash line parlays provide the most important potential payouts within the NFL betting panorama. Combining three underdogs with odds like +200, +150, and +300 may end in payouts exceeding 20-to-1 or greater. The perfect half is that, because of the excessive payouts, underdog parlays can nonetheless be worthwhile even when profitable solely a small proportion of bets. For instance, hitting simply one in all a number of giant underdog parlays may offset a number of losses and generate total revenue. NFL underdogs have traditionally outperformed expectations in particular conditions, with residence underdogs of +2 to +3 profitable outright 46-48% of the time.
Week 18 NFL money-line underdog parlay
New Orleans Saints over Atlanta Falcons
This looks like a pleasant spot to fade the Falcons coming off their huge emotional win on Monday Evening Soccer. That was an all-in spot towards a Rams workforce that was lacking a number of key gamers on offense, together with two offensive linemen.
It is powerful to attract sweeping conclusions from the Saints’ season-long stats, regardless that they’re strong throughout many classes. Tyler Shough‘s constant means to maneuver the chains has helped hold the protection contemporary — an enchancment from earlier within the yr. The workforce additionally seems extremely motivated with an eye fixed on the Offensive Rookie of the Yr award for his or her quarterback.
Over the previous three weeks, New Orleans has averaged 27.1 factors per recreation — nicely above their season common of 18.1. Shough’s red-zone effectivity has been a difference-maker, often turning journeys contained in the 20 into touchdowns. Atlanta’s third-down conversion price is simply 33.6% (twenty ninth), making it powerful to maintain drives. That stated, it hasn’t solely stifled their scoring. In the meantime, New Orleans’ protection excels on third down, rating third within the league with a 34.6% conversion price — a key think about shut video games. I actually just like the Saints on this spot.
Washington Commanders over Philadelphia Eagles
It is a difficult recreation to handicap, largely as a consequence of uncertainty across the Eagles’ lineup. The probably situation is that Philadelphia rests its starters. If each Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown sit (nonetheless unclear on the time of writing), the unfold would tighten to -4 or -5. Nevertheless, most laptop fashions nonetheless challenge the Eagles to start out their key gamers given the No. 2 seed implications. The betting market has already priced in a modest relaxation premium.
I haven’t got a lot confidence on this Washington workforce, however divisional video games usually produce surprises, and there is real upset potential right here. The Commanders needs to be extremely motivated — this recreation is actually their Tremendous Bowl, providing an opportunity to spoil the Eagles’ seeding and hold Philly beneath their win whole. Historical past helps the underdog angle: Washington upset the Eagles 32-21 as 11-point highway canines in 2022. At +250, it is value a shot.
Las Vegas Raiders over Kansas Metropolis Chiefs
How motivated are the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs to win this recreation? For the primary time since 2014, they will miss the playoffs. Each groups could have extra incentive to lose and enhance their draft place, however getting +200 odds on a workforce doubtless headed for main teaching modifications after the season may current worth.
The principle purpose for this decide is straightforward: the Chiefs’ offense has fallen aside after shedding Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew to season-ending ACL accidents. With third-stringer Chris Oladokun now beginning and nothing left to play for, Kansas Metropolis simply does not have the firepower or motivation. In the meantime, the Raiders have loads of guys on the sector combating to show they need to be on the roster subsequent yr.
The draft stakes on this recreation are literally fairly attention-grabbing for each groups. If the Raiders lose, they lock up the No. 1 total decide, which is big. But when they win and the Giants lose, they may drop to No. 2. On the opposite facet, the Chiefs can bump up their very own draft spot (they’re sitting at No. 9 proper now) in the event that they lose. So, truthfully, you would argue each groups have extra purpose to let this one slip away. And let’s be actual: it could be basic Raiders to play simply nicely sufficient to mess up their shot on the high decide.
