October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) at present is up +0.02 (+0.12%), and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV25) is down -0.30 (-0.06%).
Sugar costs at present are little modified as they consolidate latest losses. On Monday, sugar costs fell sharply to 1-week lows on the outlook for Brazil’s sugar mills to spice up sugar manufacturing after Covrig Analytics reported that Brazil’s sugar mills are prioritizing sugar manufacturing over ethanol, crushing extra cane for sugar. This development is predicted to proceed as harvesting peaks, pushed by drier cane crops that immediate mills to provide extra sugar.
NY sugar rallied to a 2-month excessive final Tuesday on issues over weaker cane yields in Brazil. Final Friday, Unica reported that Brazil’s Heart-South sugar output within the second half of July fell by -0.8% y/y to three,614 MT, and the 2025-26 Heart-South sugar output by way of July fell -7.8% y/y to 19,268 MT. Nonetheless, the proportion of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil’s sugar mills within the second half of July elevated to 54.10% from 50.32% the identical time final 12 months. Additionally, Conab, Brazil’s authorities crop forecasting company, mentioned final month that 2024/25 Brazil sugar manufacturing fell by -3.4% y/y to 44.118 MMT, citing decrease sugarcane yields attributable to drought and extreme warmth.
The outlook for increased sugar exports from India is destructive for sugar costs after Bloomberg reported that India might allow native sugar mills to export sugar within the subsequent season, which begins in October, as ample monsoon rains might produce a bumper sugar crop. India’s Meteorological Division reported at present that cumulative monsoon rain in India was 611.2 mm as of August 18, or 1% above regular. Additionally, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Producers Affiliation not too long ago mentioned that it’s going to search permission to export 2 MMT of sugar in 2025/26.
The outlook for increased sugar manufacturing in India, the world’s second-largest producer, is bearish for costs. On June 2, India’s Nationwide Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +19% y/y to 35 MMT, citing bigger planted cane acreage. That may observe a -17.5% y/y decline in India’s sugar manufacturing in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT, in accordance with the Indian Sugar Mills Affiliation (ISMA).
