March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) as we speak is down -0.13 (-0.90%), and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) is down -4.60 (-1.10%).
Sugar costs have prolonged their three-week-long slide as we speak, with NY sugar posting a 5-year nearest-futures low and London sugar posting a 4.75-year low.
Greater sugar output in Brazil is undercutting costs as we speak after Unica reported that Brazil’s Middle-South sugar output within the first half of October rose by +1.3% y/y to 2.484 MT. Additionally, the proportion of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil’s sugar mills within the first half of October elevated to 48.24% from 47.33% the identical time final yr. As well as, cumulative 2025-26 Middle-South sugar output by way of mid-October rose +0.9% y/y to 36.016 MMT.
Sugar costs have been beneath stress in latest weeks, primarily attributable to greater sugar output in Brazil and discuss of a worldwide sugar surplus. Final Tuesday, Datagro projected that Brazil’s Middle-South 2026/27 sugar manufacturing will climb +3.9% y/y to a report 44 MMT. In associated information, BMI Group on October 13 projected a worldwide 2025/26 sugar surplus of 10.5 MMT, and Covrig Analytics on October 7 projected a worldwide 2025/26 sugar surplus of 4.1 MMT.
The outlook for greater sugar exports from India is detrimental for sugar costs, as ample monsoon rains might produce a bumper sugar crop. On September 30, India’s Meteorological Division reported that cumulative monsoon rainfall as of that date was 937.2 mm, 8% above regular, marking the strongest monsoon in 5 years. On June 2, India’s Nationwide Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +19% y/y to 34.9 MMT, citing bigger planted cane acreage. That may comply with a -17.5% y/y decline in India’s sugar manufacturing in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT, based on the Indian Sugar Mills Affiliation (ISMA).
One other bearish issue for sugar was the latest assertion from sugar dealer Sucden that India might divert solely 4 MMT of sugar to make ethanol in 2025/26, which isn’t sufficient to ease the nation’s sugar surplus and will immediate India’s sugar mills to export as a lot as 4 MMT of sugar, above earlier expectations of two MMT. India is the world’s second-largest producer of sugar.
