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March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) at present is down -0.44 (-2.80%), and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) is down -13.10 (-2.93%).
Sugar costs are promoting off at present, with NY Sugar matching final month’s 4.5-year nearest-futures low and London sugar posting a brand new 4.25-year low. The outlook for strong international sugar provides is weighing on costs. Final Monday, BMI Group projected a worldwide 2025/26 sugar surplus of 10.5 MMT, and final Tuesday, Covrig Analytics projected a worldwide 2025/25 sugar surplus of 4.1 MMT.
Sugar costs have been underneath stress over the previous seven months as a consequence of indicators of upper sugar output in Brazil. Unica reported final Thursday that Brazil’s Middle-South sugar output within the second half of September rose by +10.8% y/y to three.137 MT. Additionally, the share of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil’s sugar mills within the second half of September elevated to 51.17% from 47.73% the identical time final 12 months. As well as, cumulative 2025-26 Middle-South sugar output by way of September rose +0.8% y/y to 33.524 MMT.
The outlook for increased sugar exports from India is adverse for sugar costs, as plentiful monsoon rains might produce a bumper sugar crop. On September 30, India’s Meteorological Division reported that the cumulative monsoon rainfall in India as of September 30 was 937.2 mm, 8% above regular, marking the strongest monsoon in 5 years. On June 2, India’s Nationwide Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +19% y/y to 34.9 MMT, citing bigger planted cane acreage. That may comply with a -17.5% y/y decline in India’s sugar manufacturing in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT, in keeping with the Indian Sugar Mills Affiliation (ISMA).
One other bearish issue for sugar was the current assertion from sugar dealer Sucden that India might divert 4 MMT of sugar to make ethanol in 2025/26, which isn’t sufficient to ease the nation’s sugar surplus and should immediate India’s sugar mills to export as a lot as 4 MMT of sugar, above earlier expectations of two MMT. India is the world’s second-largest producer of sugar.
The outlook for increased sugar manufacturing in Thailand is bearish for costs after the Thai Sugar Miller Corp on October 1 projected that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar crop will enhance by +5% y/y to 10.5 MMT. On Could 2, Thailand’s Workplace of the Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand’s 2024/25 sugar manufacturing rose +14% y/y to 10.00 MMT. Thailand is the world’s third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter of sugar.
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