October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) on Friday closed up +0.13 (+0.80%), and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV25) closed up +4.10 (+0.85%).
Sugar costs on Friday settled increased after a plunge within the greenback index (DXY00) to a 3.5-week low sparked quick protecting in sugar futures.
On Wednesday, London sugar rallied to a 5-week excessive on indicators of stronger international sugar demand. China’s July sugar imports surged +76% to 740,000 MT, and Pakistan not too long ago tendered for 200,000 MT of refined sugar.
On Monday, sugar costs fell to 2-week lows on the outlook for Brazil’s sugar mills to extend manufacturing. Covrig Analytics reported Monday that Brazil’s sugar mills are prioritizing sugar manufacturing over ethanol, crushing extra cane for sugar. This development is anticipated to proceed as harvesting peaks, pushed by drier cane crops that immediate mills to provide extra sugar.
NY sugar rallied to a 2-month excessive final Tuesday on considerations over weaker cane yields in Brazil. Final Friday, Unica reported that Brazil’s Heart-South sugar output within the second half of July fell by -0.8% y/y to three,614 MT, and the 2025-26 Heart-South sugar output by way of July fell -7.8% y/y to 19,268 MT. Nevertheless, the proportion of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil’s sugar mills within the second half of July elevated to 54.10% from 50.32% the identical time final 12 months. Additionally, Conab, Brazil’s authorities crop forecasting company, stated final month that 2024/25 Brazil sugar manufacturing fell by -3.4% y/y to 44.118 MMT, citing decrease sugarcane yields on account of drought and extreme warmth.
The outlook for increased sugar exports from India is damaging for sugar costs after Bloomberg reported that India could allow native sugar mills to export sugar within the subsequent season, which begins in October, as considerable monsoon rains could produce a bumper sugar crop. India’s Meteorological Division reported Monday that cumulative monsoon rain in India was 611.2 mm as of August 18, or 1% above regular. Additionally, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Producers Affiliation not too long ago stated that it’ll search permission to export 2 MMT of sugar in 2025/26.
The outlook for increased sugar manufacturing in India, the world’s second-largest producer, is bearish for costs. On June 2, India’s Nationwide Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +19% y/y to 35 MMT, citing bigger planted cane acreage. That will comply with a -17.5% y/y decline in India’s sugar manufacturing in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT, based on the Indian Sugar Mills Affiliation (ISMA).
