October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) on Friday closed down -0.03 (-0.19%), and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV25) closed down -3.00 (-0.61%).
Sugar costs fell for a second session on Friday on unfavorable carryover from Thursday, when the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Producers Affiliation stated it has requested permission to export 2 MMT of sugar within the 2025/26 season starting in October. India is the world’s second-largest sugar producer.
Losses in sugar have been restricted on Friday after the Brazilian actual (^USDBRL) rallied to a 15-month excessive towards the greenback. The stronger actual discourages export gross sales from Brazil’s sugar producers.
On Monday, NY sugar tumbled to a 4.25-year nearest-futures low, and London sugar fell to a 2.5-week low as a result of outlook for increased sugar manufacturing in Brazil. On August 29, Unica reported that Brazil’s Middle-South sugar output within the first half of August rose by +16% y/y to three,615 MT. Additionally, the share of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil’s sugar mills within the first half of August elevated to 55.00% from 49.15% the identical time final yr. Nevertheless, cumulative 2025-26 Middle-South sugar output by means of mid-August is down -4.7% y/y to 22.886 MMT.
Covrig Analytics not too long ago reported that Brazil’s sugar mills are prioritizing sugar manufacturing over ethanol, crushing extra cane for sugar. This pattern is predicted to proceed as harvesting peaks, pushed by drier cane crops that immediate mills to provide extra sugar.
Final Monday, London sugar rose to a 4-month excessive after the Worldwide Sugar Group (ISO) on August 29 forecast a worldwide sugar deficit for the 2025/26 season, the sixth consecutive yr of sugar deficits. The ISO initiatives a worldwide 2025/26 sugar deficit of -231,000 MT, bettering from a -4.88 MMT shortfall in 2024/25. The ISO additionally initiatives 2025/26 world sugar manufacturing will rise by +3.3% y/y to 180.6 MMT, and 2025/26 world sugar consumption will enhance +0.3% y/y to 180.8 MMT.
On August 19, Conab, Brazil’s authorities crop forecasting company, minimize its Brazil 2025/26 manufacturing estimate by 3.1% to 44.5 MMT from a earlier estimate of 45.9 MMT. In July, Conab reported that 2024/25 Brazil sugar manufacturing fell by -3.4% y/y to 44.118 MMT, citing decrease sugarcane yields because of drought and extreme warmth.
Expectations for plentiful sugar provides are undercutting sugar costs. On June 30, commodities dealer Czarnikow projected a 7.5 MMT world sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, the most important surplus in 8 years. On Could 22, the USDA, in its biannual report, projected that world 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would enhance by +4.7% y/y to a document 189.318 MMT, with world sugar ending shares at 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% y/y.
The outlook for increased sugar exports from India is unfavorable for sugar costs, as plentiful monsoon rains might produce a bumper sugar crop. India’s Meteorological Division reported Wednesday that cumulative monsoon rain in India was 826.2 mm as of September 10, or 8% above regular.
The outlook for increased sugar manufacturing in India is bearish for costs. On June 2, India’s Nationwide Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +19% y/y to 34.9 MMT, citing bigger planted cane acreage. That will observe a -17.5% y/y decline in India’s sugar manufacturing in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT, in line with the Indian Sugar Mills Affiliation (ISMA).
The outlook for increased sugar manufacturing in Thailand is bearish for sugar costs. On Could 2, Thailand’s Workplace of the Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand’s 2024/25 sugar manufacturing rose +14% y/y to 10.00 MMT. Thailand is the world’s third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter of sugar.
The USDA, in its bi-annual report launched Could 22, projected that world 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +4.7% y/y to a document 189.318 MMT and that world 2025/26 human sugar consumption would enhance +1.4% y/y to a document 177.921 MMT. The USDA additionally forecasted that 2025/26 world sugar ending shares would climb +7.5% y/y to 41.188 MMT. The USDA’s International Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would rise +2.3% y/y to a document 44.7 MMT FAS predicted that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would rise +25% y/y to 35.3 MMT because of favorable monsoon rains and elevated sugar acreage. FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing will climb +2% y/y to 10.3 MMT.
On the date of publication, Wealthy Asplund didn’t have (both immediately or not directly) positions in any of the securities talked about on this article. All info and information on this article is solely for informational functions. This text was initially revealed on Barchart.com
