March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Friday closed up +0.23 (+1.63%), and Might London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26) closed up +3.30 (+0.82%).
Sugar costs rallied sharply on Friday, with NY sugar posting a 1.5-week excessive. Sugar costs jumped on Friday after the US Supreme Courtroom struck down President Trump’s tariffs, probably permitting Brazil to export extra sugar to the US, which might shrink world provides. Friday’s weaker greenback ($DXY) was additionally supportive for many commodity costs, together with sugar.
Indicators of decrease sugar output in Brazil are additionally supportive of sugar costs, after Unica on Wednesday reported that sugar manufacturing in Brazil’s Heart-South within the second half of January fell by 36% y/y to solely 5,000 MT. Nevertheless, cumulative 2025-26 Heart-South sugar output via January is up by +0.9% y/y to 40.24 MMT. Additionally, the ratio of cane crushed for sugar rose to 50.74% in 2025/26 from 48.14% in 2024/25.
Final Thursday, sugar costs prolonged their 5-month-long plunge and posted 5.25-year nearest-futures lows on concern {that a} world sugar surplus will persist. Final Wednesday, analysts from sugar dealer Czarnikow mentioned they count on a world sugar surplus of three.4 MMT within the 2026/27 crop yr, following an 8.3 MMT surplus in 2025/26. Additionally, Inexperienced Pool Commodity Specialists mentioned on January 29 that they count on a 2.74 MMT world sugar surplus for 2025/26 and a 156,000 MT surplus for 2026/27. In the meantime, StoneX mentioned final Friday it expects a world sugar surplus of two.9 MMT in 2025/26.
Consulting agency Safras & Mercado mentioned on December 23 that Brazil’s sugar manufacturing in 2026/27 will fall by -3.91% to 41.8 MMT from 43.5 MMT anticipated in 2025/26. The agency expects Brazil’s sugar exports in 2026/27 to fall by -11% y/y to 30 MMT.
The India Sugar Mill Affiliation (ISMA) reported January 19 that India’s 2025-26 sugar output from Oct 1-Jan 15 was up +22% y/y to fifteen.9 MMT. The ISMA on November 11 raised its 2025/26 India sugar manufacturing estimate to 31 MMT from an earlier forecast of 30 MMT, up +18.8% y/y, as India skilled its strongest monsoon season in 5 years. The ISMA additionally minimize its estimate for sugar used for ethanol manufacturing in India to three.4 MMT from a July forecast of 5 MMT, which can enable India to spice up its sugar exports. India is the world’s second-largest sugar producer.
