The 20 groups that may make Tremendous Bowl LX: Favorites, contenders and lengthy photographs

The NFL spoiled fans with Cinderella stories near the turn of the century. In 1999, the St. Louis Rams came out of nowhere to win a Super Bowl in Kurt Warner’s first season. In 2001, the New England Patriots did the same when Tom Brady first arrived on the scene.

But over the past 15 seasons, the glass slipper hasn’t been much of a fit for teams just trying to win a conference title game. The Cincinnati Bengals wore it in 2021, reaching the Super Bowl in Joe Burrow’s first healthy season. And the Super Bowl appearances of the 2015 Panthers, 2016 Falcons and 2019 49ers were all notable surprises compared to preseason projections. The 2017 Eagles followed up a fourth-place finish from the year prior and won it all, despite losing quarterback Carson Wentz to injury late in the season. 

But for the most part, it’s been easy to identify the true title contenders before Week 1. So, who are they this season? 

Here’s the FOX Sports look at how the race for Super Bowl LX really shapes up. 

*Odds to make the Super Bowl courtesy of DraftKings

TOP CONTENDERS

Teams so elite they are almost guaranteed to be in the championship mix

Super Bowl odds: +360

The defending champs lost a few pieces on defense, but they’ve got a conveyer belt of young talent to replace what they lost. They also still have Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley and a powerful offensive line. There are worries about how Barkley will respond to a career-high (by far) in touches, and Super Bowl hangovers tend to be real. They’re also not getting any younger on the line. But they’ve been a power for three years running. No reason to think that’ll stop now.

Super Bowl odds: +330

They are returning all the important pieces from the NFL’s best offense and a top-10 defense. And as long as Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry stay healthy, they have a chance to steamroll their way through the AFC North and maybe even the entire conference. Yeah, the playoffs are always a bit of a worry and the Chiefs and Bills have proven to be their postseason kryptonite. But they are firmly entrenched as part of the AFC’s Big 3.

Super Bowl odds: +400

After all their close calls during the regular season last year, many thought the league was finally catching up to them. Then they found their way to yet another Super Bowl. OK, they were pounded there by the Eagles. But that just guarantees that this Andy Reid-Patrick Mahomes dynasty, now entering its eighth season, won’t be complacent. At this point, it’s safer to assume they are a championship contender until they actually, someday, show that they’re not.

Super Bowl odds: +330

They’ve won at least 10 games and made the playoffs six straight years, ranked in the top three in offense in five of those years, had a top-10 defense in four of them, won a playoff game in each of the past five years, and QB Josh Allen is the reigning NFL MVP. They may not be as loaded as some teams, but they still won 13 games last season and pushed the Chiefs to the limit in the AFC Championship Game. OK, yes, the Chiefs have knocked them out of the playoffs four times in five years. All those games were close, though. They’re clearly right up there with the best of the best.

Super Bowl odds: +550

Their humiliating loss to the Washington Commanders in the divisional round notwithstanding, the Lions are coming off a remarkable 15-win season and are returning almost their entire starting lineup. They do have to contend with the losses of both their coordinators — Ben Johnson on offense, Aaron Glenn on defense — and several assistant coaches. But there’s no reason to assume a major regression. And they’re still searching for that first Super Bowl championship, so they’re clearly as hungry as they’ve ever been. Dan Campbell will make sure of that.

ONE BREAK AWAY

Teams that can contend for a championship, if most everything goes right

Super Bowl odds: +1800

Quarterback C.J. Stroud took a surprising step back last season, mostly because he was pounded behind an offensive line that got him sacked 52 times. They still won 10 games and added another victory in the playoffs, though, before bowing out to the Chiefs. If they can actually keep Stroud upright all year, they have more than enough talent to make a run at the AFC’s elite. All the necessary ingredients are there.

Super Bowl odds: +850

Other than their meaningless regular-season finale against the Bears, their only losses last season were to the three best teams in the NFC — the Eagles, Lions and Vikings (twice each). And four of those losses were by five points or less. That’s literally all that is standing between them and real contention. Assuming Jordan Love continues to improve and can cut down on mistakes, they’re one small step away from joining the NFC’s elite.

Super Bowl odds: +1200

They were playing as well as anyone late last season and would’ve been a tough out in the playoffs. But they killed their chances with yet another typically slow start. It also didn’t help that they were 2-7 against teams that did make the playoffs — 0-7, in fact, until they beat Denver and Pittsburgh in the final two games of the season. Maybe a faster start will give them the momentum they need to hang with the NFL’s elite. If they get rolling late, they could be impossible to stop.

Super Bowl odds: +950

GM Adam Peters and coach Dan Quinn thought they stabilized the franchise last season and started a rebuilding project. But then quarterback Jayden Daniels was even better than anyone imagined and turned the Commanders into instant Super Bowl contenders. Now all they have to do is prove that last year’s run to the NFC Championship wasn’t a fluke. It shouldn’t be hard, as long as Daniels doesn’t have a sophomore slump. Washington’s defense, particularly up front, is still an Achilles heel. But the magic of a young quarterback makes this a very dangerous team.

Super Bowl odds: +1100

Baker Mayfield hasn’t just resurrected his career in Tampa. He’s also energized the Bucs’ offense. They can light up the scoreboard enough to compete with just about anybody, but they’ve got issues on the other side of the ball. That’s supposed to be head coach Todd Bowles’ specialty, and his ability to fix that will be the key to the season. If they can build a top-10 defense to back up their top-five offense, they’ll contend in the NFC.

Super Bowl odds: +1600

They went absolutely all-in on the 2025 season, but it all comes down to one thing: Can 41-year-old quarterback Aaron Rodgers stay healthy and turn back the clock a few years. It’s a lot to ask given how things went for him the past two seasons. But the Steelers think they saw enough from him in a lost 2024 season with the Jets to believe he’ll thrive in a better situation. They might be right, as long as his body doesn’t betray him.

UP AND COMERS

Teams with a lot of potential, but still something to prove

Super Bowl odds: +1100

They were probably last season’s biggest surprise with their 10-7 record, largely because nobody saw rookie QB Bo Nix coming. He won’t sneak up on anyone this year, but has the NFL already seen his best? Building on his stellar rookie season won’t be easy because he still doesn’t have a ton of offensive weapons around him. But he does have head coach Sean Payton and arguably the best defense in the NFL, so the Broncos can certainly compete — maybe a lot if Nix becomes a star.

Super Bowl odds: +1300

The Chargers broke out of a cycle of mediocrity last season by winning 11 games in Jim Harbaugh’s first season, but then they were crushed in the first round of the playoffs, reminding that they still have a long way to go. They still have elite QB Justin Herbert and they seemed to help him out by adding veteran running back Najee Harris and rookie running back Omarion Hampton. The defense should still be strong, too. But there is obviously a gap between them and the elite teams of the AFC. It might take some Harbaugh magic to get this forlorn franchise to exceed its limits.

Super Bowl odds: +1100

A team that went 14-3 last season and had a shot at the No. 1 seed in the NFC until the final night of the 2024 season probably deserves a better spot than this. But the reality is Minnesota is breaking in a quarterback, J.J. McCarthy, who is essentially a rookie. There is a lot of talent around him, especially on offense, but the Vikings were contenders last season largely because of the remarkable performance of Sam Darnold. Can McCarthy, the 10th overall pick of last year’s draft, duplicate that? That will tell their tale.

ON THE FRINGE

Teams with a strong core, but probably need a lot of help

Super Bowl odds: +1000

Sean McVay’s genius is probably enough to keep them in contention most years and this year could be no different. Last year felt like a slog, yet they still managed to win nine of their last 12 to get to 10-7 and into the playoffs, where they pushed the Eagles hard in a divisional game in Philly in the snow. L.A.’s ability to build on that really depends on the health of 37-year-old quarterback Matthew Stafford. Right now, the club is being awfully mysterious about his back injury, which is rarely a good sign. But if he’s OK, the Rams will be more than OK, too.

Super Bowl odds: +2500

It’s easy for the NFL to sleep on them after a 7-10 season, but that might be a big mistake if they get a full season out of QB Dak Prescott. Granted, they weren’t very good before Prescott got hurt last season. They also still have questions at running back, their defense was a disaster last season, and their best defender, Micah Parsons, is still a holdout. But they’re talented enough to challenge a lot of teams if Prescott gets hot, someone can run the football, and somehow they can get their defense right.

Super Bowl odds: +950

It would be easy to blame their disastrous 6-11 season last year on injuries, and perhaps even fair. But it’s tough to then overlook losing eight starters in an offseason cost-cutting spree. They still have their franchise QB (Brock Purdy), their outstanding head coach (Kyle Shanahan) and most of their offense intact. More importantly, they are expecting (and hopeful of) a full season from running back Christian McCaffrey and left tackle Trent Williams, and an October return from receiver Brandon Aiyuk. If they get that, maybe their rebuilding project won’t be very long at all.

POTENTIAL CINDERELLAS

Teams with just enough talent to dream big

Super Bowl odds: +2500

They looked like they were on the brink of contention when they headed into their bye week with a 6-4 record last season. Then they torched their season with a 2-5 finish. But along the way, they got some good reminders of what a healthy Kyler Murray can do. He has a strong cast around him (WR Marvin Harrison Jr., TE Trey McBride, RB James Connor), and the Cardinals spent the offseason revamping the front of their defense. Boasting a favorable schedule and playing in a division without a true favorite, the Cardinals could be primed for a big leap. And if they take it, they could be a tough team to oust in the playoffs.

Super Bowl odds: +2000

It’s asking a lot to believe in a team that went 5-12 last year and hasn’t had a winning record since 2018, especially when no one is sure what to make of franchise QB Caleb Williams. But they went on a crazy offseason spree to give him the tools to succeed, trading for two Pro Bowl guards (Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson), using their first two draft picks on weapons (TE Colston Loveland, WR Luther Burden), and, of course, hiring Lions offensive whiz Ben Johnson as their head coach. If they’re right about Williams, and he’s what they thought he’d be when they took him No. 1 overall in 2024, they could be a threat even in one of the NFL’s toughest divisions this year.

Super Bowl odds: +2800

This really requires a big leap of faith, because the Patriots are flawed and have a lot of rosters spots with huge question marks. But they seem to have gotten it right at the two most important positions, with franchise quarterback Drake Maye and new coach Mike Vrabel. They’ll need to hope their reworked offensive line holds up, that they get a bounce-back season out of veteran receiver Stefon Diggs, and that Vrabel can hold together a defense with at least five new starters. He got the Titans to the AFC Championship Game in his second season, so he knows how to build contenders quickly. This is a much bigger lift, but it’s not impossible for the Pats to sneak into the playoffs and beyond if Maye becomes the star they think he is.

Ralph Vacchiano is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He spent six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him on Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.

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