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“The Conservative Social gathering is going through an existential disaster,” Curtice mentioned. “Farage’s goal is to interchange them.”
This worry was palpable in Fareham.
“We had repeated assurances from her that she wouldn’t defect, so it’s a giant shock and a giant disappointment,” mentioned Harry Kewish, the native Conservative treasurer who answered the door at her former workplace. “She is satisfied that she has made the proper resolution and can most likely attempt to recruit a few of us,” he mentioned. “There are a number of indignant folks.”
The query now’s how excessive Reform’s ceiling is.
Having peaked at 35% in October, the celebration’s polling has settled again to twenty-eight%, based on a number of polls this month, nonetheless increased than every other celebration however not sufficient to rule with out coming into right into a coalition.
Most of its new help since 2024 has been drawn from ex-Conservatives.
One other impediment could also be Farage’s longtime friendship and allyship with Trump. The president induced outrage in Britain — and significantly in army cities like Fareham, dwelling to the HMS Collingwood naval coaching base — when he recommended British troops had not been close to the entrance traces in Afghanistan. Farage mentioned the feedback had been “mistaken” however some voters are nonetheless cautious.
“A few of their insurance policies are a bit radical for my liking: the immigration stuff,” mentioned Kevin Murphy, 70, a retired electrical engineer from close by Porchester.
“I’m simply afraid that with all these far-right insurance policies that we’re going to finish up like Donald Trump,” mentioned Murphy, who cites the immigration enforcement raids in Minnesota as his chief concern. “Should you take a look at what he’s doing in America… my god.”
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