One of many hallmarks of Zohran Mamdani’s historic win in New York Metropolis was the huge turnout that included plenty of new voters. Town’s expanded citizens noticed way more younger folks forged votes than common, in addition to many citizens who had not turned out in latest elections.
Because the Democratic Get together discusses whether or not to deal with turning out its base or persuading these on the opposite aspect, CBS Information dove deeper into the info on new Democratic voters in final week’s election — particularly, individuals who did not again them in 2024. This group differs demographically from voters who backed Kamala Harris within the presidential election. Mamdani’s new voters are youthful, extra ethnically various, and fewer prosperous — and so they additionally voted within the off yr for causes distinct from people who drive constant voters to the polls.
What number of voters did Mamdani deliver into the fold?
A more in-depth take a look at the CBS Information Voter Ballot means that 15% of Mamdani’s voters did not again Harris final yr, both as a result of they most popular Donald Trump (5%), voted for a third-party candidate (3%) or simply did not vote for president (6%). Mayoral votes are nonetheless being counted, however that interprets to about 60,000 Trump-to-Mamdani voters and one other 70,000 Mamdani voters who sat out 2024.
A good increased share of Mamdani-not-Harris voters have been new mayoral voters. That’s, half of them reported they’d by no means voted in an election for mayor earlier than.
Queens stands out because the borough the place the Mamdani marketing campaign each flipped and activated probably the most voters. About one in 10 Mamdani voters backed Mr. Trump final yr, and one other 7% didn’t vote for president. Wanting on the numbers one other means, our polling means that 15% of Trump voters turning out within the mayoral election flipped to Mamdani.
Demographic variations
Mamdani-not-Harris voters look fairly completely different from extra constant voters in a wide range of methods:
- Mamdani benefited from sturdy youth assist, however Mamdani-not-Harris voters are even youthful than his different voters — two thirds of them have been below the age of 45.
- Mamdani-not-Harris voters are much less more likely to have faculty levels, and so they are inclined to have decrease household incomes (44% are below $50,000 yearly).
- Mamdani-not-Harris voters are plurality Asian, whereas Harris-Mamdani voters are plurality White. And with regards to faith, a 29% plurality of Mamdani-not-Harris voters are Muslim.
Attitudinal variations
Together with being youthful and extra various, Mamdani-not-Harris voters look completely different of their basic political opinions and the way they got here to resolve their mayoral vote:
- Mamdani-not-Harris voters have been a lot much less more likely to establish as Democrats — solely half did — or as liberal on most political issues.
- Whereas most disapprove of the job Mr. Trump is doing as president, the overwhelming majority say he was not an element of their vote for mayor. Against this, most constant Democratic voters say a cause for his or her vote was opposing Mr. Trump.
- Associated to the socioeconomic variations we see, Mamdani-not-Harris voters are likelier to explain New York’s financial system in unfavourable phrases and considerably likelier to say they’re falling behind financially.
- One other distinction that emerges is the salience of Israel as a voting situation: the vast majority of Mamdani-not-Harris voters mentioned the candidates’ positions on Israel have been a significant factor of their vote.
- And eventually, Mamdani-not-Harris voters took longer to make up their thoughts about their selection for mayor. About 4 in 10 determined within the final month of the marketing campaign. That’s in step with them being much less partisan and ideologically dedicated than Mamdani’s different supporters, the overwhelming majority of whom selected him earlier than October.
Jackson Heights is an effective illustration of the place Mamdani added loads of these sorts of voters. This closely Asian and Latino working-class neighborhood in Queens leans Democratic, but it surely’s not as deeply blue as different pockets of town. Harris carried it with 56% of the vote, however Mr. Trump nonetheless did higher than anticipated final yr.
CBS Information estimates recommend that Mamdani is on observe to match Harris’ assist degree right here, even supposing many Democrats and Harris voters most popular Andrew Cuomo. Mamdani’s relative energy within the neighborhood subsequently comes from flipping a non-trivial share of Trump voters, in addition to a higher-than-expected turnout, that includes plenty of 2024 non-voters and new mayoral voters.
Additional down the Northeast Hall…
In abstract, Mamdani-not-Harris voters are youthful and extra various, each ethnically and socioeconomically. And they look like much less ideological and extra targeted on pocketbook points than they’re on Mr. Trump.
Whereas sizable and various, New York Metropolis’s citizens clearly will not be consultant of voters nationwide. However the gubernatorial races additional south in New Jersey and Virginia provide further information factors on the kinds of voters Democrats introduced into the tent this yr — and lots of the similar patterns emerge.
Democrats Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey and Abigail Spanberger in Virginia received in landslides, thanks each to excessive turnout in Democratic areas and a few Trump voters flipping. And it was voters of coloration, particularly Latino voters, and youthful voters who have been the likeliest to flip. In New Jersey, for instance, 18% of Latino Trump voters flipped to Sherrill this yr, whereas solely 5% of White Trump voters did so.
Add to this group voters who backed this yr’s Democratic nominees however did not prove in 2024 and also you see lots of the similar traits as we noticed in New York: the Democrat-not-Harris voters are typically youthful, much less partisan, much less prosperous, and extra targeted on the financial system.
These developments mirror CBS Information polling that finds Mr. Trump’s approval score has declined probably the most with younger folks, folks of coloration, and fewer politically engaged People. However regardless of largely disapproving of the president, new Democratic voters throughout these states largely mentioned their vote was not about him. As Democrats chart a path ahead, there may be a lot to duplicate from their electoral success final week. Whether or not their purpose is persuading former GOP voters to cross over, or persuading those that are disengaged that turning out is price it, a deal with bread-and-butter financial points appears to be a profitable recipe for ousting incumbents.
This evaluation depends on county- and precinct-level election outcomes, demographic estimates, and survey information from the CBS Information Voter Ballot. The Voter Ballot was carried out by SSRS, an unbiased analysis firm, on behalf of CBS, ABC, CNN, Fox Information, NBC, and the Related Press. It combines information collected from verified registered voters on-line and by phone, with in-person exit ballot information collected on Election Day.
