Tracing Tomahawks: US Missiles Sure for Iran Noticed Over Iraq

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Bellingcat has geolocated footage of a number of Tomahawk cruise missiles travelling by Iraqi airspace in direction of Iran, both in violation of its airspace or with Iraq’s consent.

Bellingcat recognized at the very least 20 particular person cruise missiles and geolocated them over Iraqi Kurdistan together with alongside Mount Piramagrun, within the Zagros Mountain vary, and roughly 50 km southeast of the town of Kirkuk.

Trendy Tomahawks can journey as much as 1600 km, and are used for precision strikes. At first of the conflict, the US had a provider strike group within the Mediterranean and the Arabian Sea, in addition to some independently deployed destroyers.

The US is the one participant within the conflict recognized to own Tomahawks, which may be launched by ships or submarines. US President Donald Trump stated at a press convention on Monday that Iran “additionally has some Tomahawks”. Official ​​authorities reviews on Iran’s army steadiness don’t help this declare.

Contemplating the space of US vessels to the geolocated missiles, the missiles seen within the movies had been most certainly fired from the Mediterranean Sea, Sam Lair, a analysis affiliate on the James Martin Middle for Nonproliferation Research, informed Bellingcat.

Purple Sea launches can be pushing the utmost vary, and US Navy ships weren’t recognized to have been within the Persian Gulf at the beginning of the conflict, Lair stated.

Brian Finucane, a senior adviser with the US Program on the Worldwide Disaster Group, informed Bellingcat that with out the consent of Iraq and Syria, the intrusion of Tomahawk missiles into their airspace “would violate its sovereignty and worldwide regulation”. 

We requested the US State Division and Division of Protection in addition to the international ministries of Iraq and Syria, if ​​the US had an settlement with Iraq or Syria to utilise their airspace for cruise missiles concentrating on a 3rd nation. The Division of Protection informed Bellingcat they “had nothing to offer” whereas neither the Iraqi nor Syrian ministry had responded on the time of publication.

On Tuesday, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani spoke with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and confused that Iraqi airspace and territory shouldn’t be used for any army motion concentrating on neighbouring nations, the prime minister’s media workplace stated.

Bellingcat geolocated at the very least eight movies exhibiting Tomahawk missiles over Iraq. The movies present at the very least 20 particular person Tomahawk missiles, based mostly on the longest uninterrupted video we reviewed.

The beneath graphic reveals all Tomahawk missiles Bellingcat has geolocated, which incorporates extra missiles recognized exterior of Iraq.

Click on the arrows within the map beneath to view the verified missile sightings, together with the unique footage and geolocation evaluation.

Interactive map exhibiting the approximate areas of US provider teams within the area at the beginning of the conflict, with a 1600 km vary, in relation to Tomahawks geolocated by Bellingcat. We included a attainable Purple Sea launch level for visualization, reference and comparability functions solely. The white arrows point out the placement of Tomahawk sightings. Their respective instructions of journey are proven by default. All coordinates and instructions proven are approximate. Supply: Logan Williams/Bellingcat.

These missiles don’t all the time make it to their meant goal. Along with footage of the airborne missiles, Bellingcat additionally recognized remnants of a Tomahawk missile that had crashed exterior Kafr Zita in northwest Syria.

Missiles Fired From the Sea

On the primary day of the conflict, Feb 28, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) revealed footage of Tomahawk missiles being fired from the ocean. In a while March 1, CENTCOM launched extra video of the USS Thomas Hudner (DDG-116) firing a Tomahawk missile, whereas working within the Japanese Mediterranean Sea. 

In keeping with a Middle for Strategic and Worldwide Research (CSIS) evaluation, greater than 160 Tomahawk missiles could have been used within the first 100 hours of the conflict, and “they might have been used to destroy Iranian air defenses and different counter-air capabilities and create permissive situations for follow-on assaults”.

Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Thomas Hudner (DDG 116) fires Tomahawk land assault missiles in help of Operation Epic Fury, Mar. 1, 2026. (U.S. Navy video)

Tomahawk Flights By means of Iraqi Airspace

The footage analysed by Bellingcat exhibiting cruise missiles travelling over land is according to the everyday flight profile of Tomahawks, which cruise at low altitude alongside pre-programmed routes towards distant targets. 

In keeping with the US Navy, “Tomahawk cruise missiles are designed to fly at extraordinarily low altitudes at excessive subsonic speeds, and are piloted over an evasive route by a number of mission tailor-made steering techniques.”

This explains why they’re typically filmed by civilians throughout transit. Related sightings have beforehand been recorded throughout US conflicts within the Center East. 

Bellingcat analysed terrain options and photo voltaic knowledge within the footage and confirmed the placement and approximate route of journey of the Tomahawk missiles. We discovered that they adopted the terrain intently, and appeared to comply with two totally different valleys close to the Iraq-Iran border.

The Zagros mountain vary stretches throughout a lot of Iran in addition to northern Iraq. The mountains of this valley would supply particulars for the Tomahawks’ terrain matching steering, and conceal them from Iranian radar detection.

Click on the arrows within the map beneath to view the verified missile sightings, together with the unique footage and geolocation evaluation.

Interactive map exhibiting the areas of Tomahawk sightings. The missiles had been travelling by Iraqi airspace in direction of Iran in valleys close to the Iraq-Iran border, and close to Kirkuk. The respective instructions of journey are proven (white arrows). All coordinates and instructions proven are approximate. Supply: Logan Williams/Bellingcat.

Different Geolocated Footage 

In a video filmed in Tehran and posted on the primary day of the conflict, six Tomahawk missiles may be seen flying over the Qurkhane Bus Terminal in Tehran, as an anti-aircraft gun on a close-by constructing fires at them. Different gunfire may be heard within the distance.

Bellingcat beforehand geolocated a Tomahawk strike in Manib, Iran, close to a faculty the place 175 individuals, together with youngsters, had been reported to have been killed.

A ultimate video analysed by Bellingcat, posted on March 3, reveals 13 Tomahawk missiles flying previous a business ship within the route of Iran, the M/V MAERSK BOSTON, whereas it was off the coast of Oman, in accordance with photo voltaic, visible and Marine Site visitors knowledge.

New Tomahawk Variants

Because the starting of the conflict, two new variants of Tomahawk missiles have been noticed.

One Tomahawk variant seen publicly for the primary time, distinguished by its seen black physique, believed to be a stealth coating. Different missiles seem to have wings angled forwards, a modification designed to make them more durable to detect by radar, in accordance with an evaluation by The Battle Zone.

Clobbering

Sam Lair, a analysis affiliate on the James Martin Middle for Nonproliferation Research, informed Bellingcat that Tomahawks have GPS steering and use terrain matching to find out their location. When there may be an error in steering, some missiles can “clobber” and hit the bottom.

The US stopped firing Tomahawk missiles over Saudi Arabia throughout the 2003 Iraq Battle after some crashed within the nation whereas making an attempt to strike targets. About ten Tomahawk missiles crashed throughout that conflict, with some touchdown in Iran and Turkey as effectively.

Bellingcat’s Logan Williams and Felix Matteo Lommerse contributed analysis to this text. Livio Spani, Anisa Shabir, Afton Briones, Mathis Noizet, and Nicole Kiess from Bellingcat’s Volunteer Neighborhood additionally contributed to this piece.

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