Washington — President Trump steadily touts a U.S. economic system that is on the rise beneath his stewardship: he talks about power and grocery costs which are falling, decrease mortgage charges and claims he is vanquished inflation. He argues issues have by no means been higher for the American shopper, particularly after predecessor Joe Biden’s administration.
This month, there have been blended messages on the economic system — People’ shopper confidence slid to its lowest level since Might, however this week, revised information confirmed that the U.S. economic system grew at a powerful 3.8% tempo within the second quarter.
Customers say they’re cautious, with People not too long ago surveyed by CBS Information and YouGov most definitely to decide on “unsure” or “struggling” to explain the present state of the economic system.
Here is how the president’s latest claims on the economic system stack up.
“Below my management, power prices are down”
United Nations Common Meeting, Sept. 23
The typical worth of electrical energy per kilowatt-hour has elevated for the reason that identical time final yr. Residential electrical energy prices had been 6.2% greater in August 2025 than they had been a yr earlier, the newest federal information reveals, whereas pure gasoline is up 13.8%. That is greater than the annualized general price of inflation, which was 2.9% in August.
The price of family power general has elevated barely, in accordance with the Federal Reserve Board of St. Louis. In August of this yr, the typical price of power for a family was $282.84. In August of 2024, it was $263.44.
Total, power costs are anticipated to rise, largely on account of elevated demand from the rise of synthetic intelligence, oil and gasoline drilling, electrified transportation and general elevated financial exercise after the tip of the pandemic. The U.S. Power Data Administration expects residential electrical energy charges to extend steadily by as a lot as 18% within the subsequent few years, far outstripping the annual inflation price of about 2.7%.
It isn’t clear how the president will drive down power prices to as a lot as he mentioned he would on the marketing campaign path. At a rally in North Carolina on Aug. 14, 2024, he mentioned his administration could be “slashing power and electrical energy costs by half inside 12 months, at a most 18 months.”
“Gasoline costs are down”
U.N. Common Meeting, Sept. 23
If the president is referring to gasoline costs simply since this time final yr, he is proper. The price of an unleaded common gallon of gasoline dropped from $3.52 in August 2024 to $3.30 in August 2025, in accordance with the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Total, gasoline costs have remained considerably flat since Mr. Trump took workplace, a win for the administration, since gasoline is commonly dearer in the summertime, when extra People are touring. An unleaded common gallon of gasoline price $3.21 when Mr. Trump took workplace.
“Grocery costs are down”
U.N. Common Meeting, Sept. 23
“Grocery costs are clearly not down,” mentioned Michael Pressure, director of financial coverage research on the American Enterprise Institute.
Grocery costs have continued to climb, regardless of the president’s pledge on the marketing campaign path that grocery costs would come down. Costs for meals at dwelling elevated by 0.6% in August, which was the quickest month-to-month rise in practically three years, with will increase throughout all main meals teams. The price of meals at dwelling elevated 2.7% from August 2024 to August 2025, in accordance with the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That is nowhere close to the dramatic soar of practically 11.4% throughout 2022, but it surely’s additionally inaccurate to say grocery costs are down.
A pound of floor beef, which was $5.55 in January, was $6.32 in August, in accordance with CBS Information’ worth tracker. A pound of floor espresso, which was $7.02 in January, was $8.87 in August, partly on account of tariffs. However some costs have come down. Egg costs, which spiked on account of a hen flu outbreak, are lower than when he took workplace in January — $3.59 in August, in comparison with $4.95 a dozen in January.
“In equity to the president, the general shopper worth index has elevated by 1.3% since January and grocery costs have elevated by 1.1%,” Pressure mentioned. “So grocery costs are rising at a slower price than the general CPI. However they’re nonetheless rising.”
The very fact is, even when grocery costs are rising at a price that’s slower than the patron worth index, persons are nonetheless going to note that they are dearer than they had been final month, no matter economists say.
“My sense is that they had been attempting to speak there could be deflation in grocery costs,” Pressure mentioned. “A superbly smart factor to say could be that grocery worth inflation goes to come back down, which might nonetheless imply that grocery costs had been going to go up.”
“Mortgage charges are down”
U.N. Common Meeting, Sept. 23
“Mortgage charges are down,” Pressure mentioned. “That is true.”
On Jan. 16, just a few days earlier than Mr. Trump took workplace, the typical price for a 30-year fastened mortgage was 7.04%, in accordance with Freddie Mac. On Sept. 18, it was 6.26%.
Charges dipped in anticipation of the Fed’s price minimize, but additionally responded to financial situations, and the 10-year Treasury. However at the same time as mortgage charges decline, shopping for a house stays unaffordable for a lot of typical working People.
Mr. Trump has expressed a powerful want for rates of interest, and mortgage charges particularly, to drop additional. Even with barely decrease rates of interest, shopping for a house is out of attain for the typical employee.
“Inflation has been defeated” and there’s “no inflation”
U.N. Common Meeting, Sept. 23, and in Oval Workplace, Sept. 25
The president advised the world at UNGA “inflation has been defeated,” and has repeatedly mentioned, together with a number of instances within the Oval Workplace on Thursday, there’s now “no inflation.”
The Shopper Value Index rose by 2.9% in August, a slight enhance from months prior. Inflation was trending decrease after Mr. Trump took workplace, however started ticking again upward in spring.
“Inflation has not been defeated — in any respect,” Pressure mentioned. “Inflation remains to be above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal. It appears to be like to me like inflation is definitely re-accelerating, that the speed of inflation is rising, not lowering.”
Economists say the president’s tariffs, and uncertainty over these tariffs, are partly responsible. However whereas Pressure says tariffs are an element, he does not assume they’re the one issue.
“I feel the underlying economic system is stronger than we had thought,” Pressure mentioned, and that is “contributing to inflationary strain.”
Households are additionally anticipating inflation to proceed at a price above the Fed’s 2% goal, he mentioned. Pressure mentioned he is involved inflation could also be worse than we predict now.
“The one factor that is up is the inventory market, which simply hit a document excessive.”
U.N. Common Meeting, Sept. 23, 2025
It is correct that the inventory market has reached all-time highs throughout Mr. Trump’s second time period, regardless of fluctuations round his tariff bulletins. The S&P 500 has hit 28 all-time highs this yr, and extra in September up to now than any month since September 2017.
The S&P hit 5,997 on Friday, Jan. 17, shortly earlier than Mr. Trump was sworn into workplace. On Tuesday, when Mr. Trump commented on the inventory market, it closed at 6,658.
The Dow Jones has additionally reached all-time highs since Mr. Trump took workplace, though it dipped this spring when speak of tariffs was at its peak. The Nasdaq has additionally reached document highs throughout Mr. Trump’s second time period.
“Manufacturing is booming”
U.N. Common Meeting, Sept. 23
In opposition to economists’ expectations, U.S. manufacturing facility manufacturing elevated in August, up 0.9% yr over yr, after struggling in July. The White Home has cited that demand as “signaling confidence and future funding in manufacturing as home producers ramp up capability.”
However there are fewer manufacturing jobs within the U.S. now than when Mr. Trump took workplace. In August, employers shed 12,000 manufacturing jobs. Payrolls within the sector have shrunk by 42,000 since April, in accordance with an evaluation from the left-leaning Middle for American Progress, based mostly on authorities information.
“Now we have fewer manufacturing jobs than we had a yr in the past,” Pressure mentioned.
The Trump administration hopes each manufacturing employment and manufacturing facility output will enhance because the president’s tariffs go into full impact.
“The administration is correct to say that it is too early to guage the outcomes of their insurance policies, I feel that is clearly true,” Pressure mentioned. However, he expects the administration’s “protectionist insurance policies, the tariffs, will cut back manufacturing employment, not enhance manufacturing employment,” as a result of tariffs enhance the price of the components imported into the U.S. to make completed items.
“Staff’ wages are rising on the quickest tempo in additional than 60 years”
U.N. Common Meeting, Sept. 23
Blue-collar employees are seeing wage development beneath Mr. Trump. Actual wage development elevated 1.7% for blue-collar employees within the first 5 months of the Trump administration, a much bigger enhance than the primary 5 months of every other administration. That is probably what the president was referring to when he talked about swiftly rising wages.
However the identical is not true for white-collar wage development, which is lagging behind inflation, in accordance with a Bankrate evaluation of BLS information.
On the entire, wage development is comparatively flat. In line with the Bureau of Labor Statistics information revealed by the Federal Reserve of Atlanta, general unweighted wage development in August was 4.1%, the identical because it was in January and barely beneath August 2024, when it was 4.6%.
