[Vantage Point] Why Jollibee ought to cease pondering like a restaurant and begin pondering like McDonald’s

Jollibee’s Worldwide operations now ship actual progress and earnings, with double-digit same-store gross sales throughout main areas and roughly 40% of EBITDA (earnings earlier than curiosity, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) coming from abroad, underscoring that the corporate is not depending on Philippine consumption alone. Regardless of this momentum, Jollibee continues to be financed like a restaurant operator — lease-heavy, capital-intensive, and uncovered to working volatility — inserting a ceiling on valuation.

The deliberate spin-off and potential itemizing of its worldwide enterprise on a United States (US) securities trade by 2027 highlights the chance forward: if Jollibee shifts decisively towards a McDonald’s-style, asset-light, franchise-led mannequin that prioritizes money move over retailer rely, it may unlock a far greater valuation. Emotion constructed the model; self-discipline will decide whether or not it turns into actually world in worth, not simply in presence.

It didn’t start as a company technique. There have been no spreadsheets, no investor decks, no valuation fashions forecasting world dominance. Jollibee Meals Company started as a small, virtually sentimental experiment in Manila — heat, acquainted, and unmistakably Filipino. Its earliest clients weren’t on the lookout for effectivity or scale. They got here for consolation. Fried rooster tasted like residence. Spaghetti was unapologetically candy. Even the mascot smiled the way in which Filipinos did — extensive, earnest, and barely theatrical.

What actually embedded Jollibee into the nationwide psyche was not meals alone, however emotion. Few client manufacturers wherever on this planet have understood how you can monetize sentiment as successfully. Jollibee’s ads didn’t promote meals; they offered longing — dad and mom working overseas, love delayed by poverty, sacrifice repaid at a fast-food counter. These commercials grew to become cultural occasions, replayed and shared like quick movies. Jollibee ceased to be only a restaurant. It grew to become one thing nearer to household, a model Filipinos defended instinctively. (READ: Jollibee’s 10 most seen Fb movies earlier than ‘Vow,’ ‘Crush,’ and ‘Date’)

Lengthy earlier than knowledge analytics, loyalty apps, and algorithmic focusing on, Jollibee mastered one thing extra primal: capitalizing on how scent can immediately set off an emotional response together with a reminiscence. The now-iconic “Langhap-Sarap” tv marketing campaign, launched in 1983, was not a mere slogan engineered in a boardroom, however an perception drawn from lived expertise. My expensive buddy Bobby Sumulong, then Jollibee’s advertising supervisor, had introduced within the late Minyong Ordoñez, an promoting legend, to develop campaigns for the corporate’s hamburger line with a purpose to enhance the model’s early progress. Ordoñez drew on a childhood reminiscence acquainted to many Filipinos: the scent of meat hitting sizzling oil to sign that the meals was virtually prepared. Starvation then adopted aroma, and luxury adopted starvation. “Langhap-Sarap” gave language to intuition, turning scent into promise and urge for food into emotion. It informed Filipinos that Jollibee didn’t simply feed them; it understood them.

The brilliance of the marketing campaign was that it didn’t invent conduct — it validated it. Lengthy earlier than the phrase entered the Filipino lexicon, Jollibee’s founder Tony Tan Caktiong had already found, intuitively, what world chains would later formalize systematically: demand usually begins earlier than a transaction. Tan Caktiong intentionally positioned grills in order that the meaty aroma of burgers drifted into the road, turning sidewalks into funnels of anticipation. Folks walked in not as a result of they had been persuaded, however as a result of they had been summoned. It was advertising with out advertising — a sensory invitation that felt pure slightly than imposed.

The worldwide quick meals large arrives

When McDonald’s entered the Philippine market in 1981 — opening its first retailer in Morayta, Manila — it did what it had accomplished all over the place else. It introduced with it the total pressure of American fast-food self-discipline: standardized methods, industrial effectivity, technology-driven operations, and scale. For many native rivals, this may have been an extinction-level occasion. For Jollibee, it grew to become the catalyst for transformation.

What adopted was some of the underappreciated know-how transfers in world client historical past. Jollibee studied McDonald’s with near-obsessive depth, scrutinizing each phrase within the latter’s operations guide. That is one thing for conspiracy theorists to ponder: how did Jollibee get a glimpse of the worldwide quick meals large’s earlier, long-standing operational precept for achievement — High quality, Service, Cleanliness, and Worth (QSCV) — earlier than different markets on this planet did? 

McDonald’s ‘impressed’ Jollibee’s retailer layouts, service velocity, kitchen workflows, workers uniforms, menu boards, queue administration — nothing was left unexamined. The red-and-yellow palette, the standardized smiles, and the choreography behind the counter all carried unmistakable American DNA. It was as if Jollibee had stationed silent spies inside McDonald’s kitchens, absorbing each operational lesson out there. (Shoutout to the late Bobby Sumulong for this!)

However imitation alone doesn’t clarify survival. Jollibee localized what McDonald’s standardized. It saved the methods however bent the product to Filipino style. McDonald’s taught Jollibee how you can run a worldwide restaurant. Filipino shoppers taught it what to promote. The end result was not a clone, however a hybrid — American effectivity wrapped in Filipino emotion. That synthesis did greater than defend Jollibee’s residence turf. It propelled the corporate previous its overseas rival domestically and remodeled a defensive response right into a platform for growth.

The query now could be whether or not that very same components can carry Jollibee via its most formidable chapter but: the worldwide stage.

Can Jollibee conquer the world?

Jollibee’s worldwide growth has moved far past the early diaspora experiment. At present, its abroad footprint spans fried rooster, espresso, tea, and informal eating, with manufacturers, similar to The Espresso Bean & Tea Leaf, Compose Espresso, Milksha, and Tim Ho Wan, complementing its flagship enterprise. The dimensions is not marginal. Within the first 9 months of 2025, Jollibee posted internet revenue of simply over ₱9 billion. System-wide gross sales exterior the Philippines surged greater than 30%, pushed by aggressive espresso growth and powerful efficiency in North America and different worldwide markets.

The working momentum is actual. Compose Espresso’s system-wide gross sales surged greater than five-fold. The Espresso Bean & Tea Leaf posted double-digit income progress. Worldwide same-store gross sales progress reached double digits throughout main areas, together with North America, Europe, the Center East, Africa, and components of Asia — a sign that clients should not merely sampling the model, however returning. For the primary time, worldwide operations now account for roughly 40% of group earnings earlier than EBITDA. Jollibee is not overly depending on Philippine consumption cycles to defend profitability.

Beneath the expansion narrative, nevertheless, lies a strategic pressure buyers can not afford to disregard.

In January 2026, Jollibee introduced plans to separate its worldwide operations into a brand new entity in preparation for a potential itemizing on a US inventory trade by 2027. Philippine operations would stay listed regionally. The transfer successfully splits Jollibee into two corporations: a home money generator and a worldwide progress automobile. Administration framed the choice as a option to unlock worth the Philippine market couldn’t totally acknowledge, permitting world buyers to cost Jollibee’s worldwide ambitions immediately.

The logic is sound. Analysts likened the transfer to San Miguel Company’s historic brewery spin-off — a restructuring that sharpened focus, improved comparability, and in the end unlocked worth. Shareholders are anticipated to obtain shares within the worldwide entity as a property dividend. The market’s preliminary response was enthusiastic, with Jollibee’s share worth leaping sharply on the announcement.

Construction alone doesn’t create worth

But, right here lies the uncomfortable reality: in contrast to McDonald’s, Jollibee’s world progress continues to be being financed like a restaurant firm. Its steadiness sheet stays heavy with lease obligations. Capital depth is excessive. Free money move, as soon as adjusted for lease funds, is thinner and extra unstable than headline earnings recommend. Some worldwide property shine; others falter. Tim Ho Wan’s system-wide gross sales contraction is a reminder that not each model acquisition compounds easily, and never each world footprint interprets into sturdy returns.

McDonald’s realized its most vital lesson many years in the past: world dominance isn’t constructed by operating eating places — it’s constructed by franchising them. At present, greater than 90% of McDonald’s shops are franchised. The corporate collects hire and royalties, not operational complications. Its margins method 50%. Its money flows are predictable. Its valuation displays that self-discipline.

Jollibee now stands on the similar crossroads McDonald’s as soon as confronted.

If Jollibee continues increasing as a hands-on operator — leasing shops, absorbing labor and commodity volatility, and carrying operational threat — it might nicely turn into some of the beloved fast-food manufacturers on this planet with out ever changing into one among its most dear. Development, in that situation, will impress shoppers however disappoint capital.

The numbers already trace at this ceiling. Utilizing the newest publicly out there financials, Jollibee generates roughly ₱270 billion in consolidated revenues and about ₱45–47 billion in EBITDA. EBITDA margins sit within the high-teens, constrained not by demand however by a mannequin that absorbs working prices, lease funds, and reinvestment threat. Web debt, together with lease liabilities, approaches ₱90–95 billion. The market responds rationally, valuing the corporate at roughly Sept. 11 occasions EBITDA and high-teens to low-20s earnings multiples.

What’s changing into clearer within the newest investor disclosures is that Jollibee’s worldwide progress is not pushed merely by opening extra shops. The numbers present one thing extra sturdy at work. Whole worldwide system-wide gross sales progress — the mixed gross sales of each company-owned and franchised eating places — rose a sturdy 20%, whereas same-store gross sales progress, which measures efficiency at eating places which were open for at the least a yr, reached 12% throughout main abroad areas. North America, Europe, the Center East, Africa, and Asia, together with Hong Kong and Macau, all posted double-digit same-store progress, a sign that clients are returning and spending extra, not simply sampling the model for novelty.

That distinction issues. Development fueled by current shops is often more healthy and extra worthwhile than progress pushed purely by growth. It suggests model acceptance, pricing energy, and operational momentum — attributes that permit scale to compound slightly than pressure the system. This efficiency additionally aligns with the robust end Jollibee reported towards the top of 2025, with worldwide markets more and more carrying the gross sales narrative because the yr closed.

What the numbers say

Extra telling nonetheless is the earnings combine. For the primary 9 months of 2025, roughly 60% of earnings earlier than curiosity, taxes, depreciation, and amortization got here from the Philippines, whereas a significant 40% got here from worldwide operations, with abroad EBITDA up practically 19% year-to-date. Worldwide is not a distant promise; it’s already a pillar of profitability.

And but, that is exactly the place the valuation pressure sharpens. International recognition doesn’t dictate valuation. Economics does. With out a structural pivot towards a capital-light, franchise-led mannequin — nearer to McDonald’s — Jollibee dangers capping the very upside its worldwide success is now starting to unlock.

McDonald’s isn’t the world’s most dear restaurant firm as a result of it sells probably the most burgers. It’s precious as a result of it operates an asset-light, franchise-dominant system with structurally excessive margins, low reinvestment wants, and distinctive cash-flow high quality. That financial construction instructions mid-teens EBITDA multiples and premium earnings valuations.

For Jollibee, the problem isn’t whether or not it may possibly promote extra rooster overseas as a result of it already does. The problem is whether or not it may possibly convert operational momentum into sturdy, high-quality earnings.

If the worldwide spin-off turns into a forcing mechanism — one which accelerates franchising, reduces direct working publicity, prunes underperforming property, and prioritizes free money move over footprint — Jollibee’s valuation ceiling adjustments materially. At that time, Wall Avenue would not see a Filipino restaurant chain increasing overseas. It could see a worldwide client platform with emerging-market roots and developed-market self-discipline.

The true threat for Jollibee isn’t worldwide failure. It’s worldwide success structured cheaply. International enterprise historical past is affected by manufacturers that grew impressively however delivered mediocre returns as a result of growth was financed with leases and operational publicity slightly than royalties and self-discipline. McDonald’s averted that destiny by slowing down, franchising aggressively, and optimizing for money extraction as an alternative of territorial dominance.

Jollibee doesn’t have to turn into McDonald’s to succeed. But when it needs to be valued like McDonald’s, it should end the journey it started within the Eighties — not simply by copying the appear and feel of the golden arches, however by embracing the economics beneath them. 

In client markets, it’s emotion that first units the stage and builds a model. What sustains that model and builds wealth is self-discipline. Jollibee’s first step has helped it grasp the primary stage. Conquering the world stage relies upon completely on how nicely Jollibee takes the following step. – Rappler.com

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